Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 2-Dec-18 World View -- Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agree to a 90 day moratorium in trade war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • G-20 Summit meeting in Buenos Aires ends with multiple compromises
  • The G-20 Final Communiqué -- the 'breakthrough'
  • Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agree to a 90 day moratorium in trade war

****
**** G-20 Summit meeting in Buenos Aires ends with multiple compromises
****


[Image: g181201b.jpg]
G-20 Group picture

The G-20 is a group of member nations that represent two-thirds of the
world's people and 85% of its economy. The G7 member countries are
the United States, Britain, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Canada.
Russia was a member (of the G-8), but when expelled in 2013 when it
invaded Crimea. The G-20 was formed in 1997 by adding developing
nations such as Brazil, China, India, and Russia.

The G-20's primary mandate is to prevent future international
financial crises. It seeks to shape the global economic agenda, by
combining the perspectives of the major economies with the growing
economies in Latin America and Asia. The finance ministers and
central bank governors of the G-20 countries meet twice a year. They
meet at the same time as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the
World Bank.

This year's G-20 summit meeting was a masterpiece of mulitiple
compromises designed to keep the summit meeting from blowing up.

A big part of the meeting was to avoid being seen with someone that
you didn't want to be seen with. So start with the group picture at
the beginning of this article. It was important not to stand next to
the wrong person, but it was also important not to smile at the wrong
person while people were going to their assigned spots:
  • Notice that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
    (MBS) is positioned in the far upper right corner. Because of the
    gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Embassy in Instanbul
    several weeks ago, nobody wanted to risk being seen with him.

  • However, a big exception was Russia's Vladimir Putin. As they
    were gathering before the photo was taken, Putin and MBS met, smiled,
    performed some big handshake as if they were both boys in the same
    fraternity, and then spoke for a while with broad grins on both their
    faces. Putin wants to be everyone's friend in the Mideast.

  • Donald Trump and Putin had originally scheduled a bilateral
    meeting with each other, "on the sidelines," but Trump canceled it
    because of Russia's brutal violation of international laws, seizing
    Ukrainian ships outside the Kerch Strait, and torturing the seamen and
    forcing them to admit to crimes they did not commit, and then sending
    them off to jail in Moscow. When Trump and Putin passed each other,
    they had very choreographed head positions so that they would not even
    glance at each other.

  • There are only two women in the picture, Christine Lagarde from
    the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Britain's prime minister
    Theresa May. The final communiqué contained the usual boilerplate
    nonsense about gender equality, but these people obviously don't
    practice what they preach.

  • Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel would have been the third woman
    in the picture. But her flight was delayed, and she wasn't even in
    the picture at all.

  • And of course, the star of the show was Donald Trump, who was
    positioned in the middle of front row.

G-20 Web Site and The Balance


****
**** The G-20 Final Communiqué -- the 'breakthrough'
****


[Image: g181201c.jpg]
Donald Trump's Saturday evening dinner with Xi Jinping

Last year's G-20 meeting didn't have a final joint communiqué from all
the members because Donald Trump as advocating a protectionist trade
policy and also because he had just pulled out of the Paris treaty on
climate change. Trump opposed the views of the other 19 countries, so
no communiqué could be drafted that they all agreed on.

So this year, they were bound and determined to get out a joint
communiqué that everyone would sign onto. Apparently they negotiated
all night Friday night, sometimes spending an hour on the wording of
one sentence. But they finally had "a breakthrough."

Previous G-20 communiqués had contained text discouraging
protectionism, but any such text this year would be clearly aimed at
Trump, so would not be agreed. So they agreed to this language:

<QUOTE>"27. International trade and investment are important
engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and
development. We recognize the contribution that the multilateral
trading system has made to that end. The system is currently
falling short of its objectives and there is room for
improvement. We therefore support the necessary reform of the WTO
[World Trade Organization] to improve its functioning. We will
review progress at our next Summit."<END QUOTE>


So the breakthrough was that the communiqué specified that the WTO had
to be reformed, but did not specify what the reform would be.

That's because different groups wanted different, contradictory
reforms. Trump particularly wanted a reform that change China's
status from a "developing nation" to a "developed nation," so that it
would be bound by the WTO rules, but China of course disagreed with
that. China wanted a "win-win" situation where the WTO continues
exactly as it has.

When the US helped China join the WTO in 2000, it was with the
expectation that China would become an honest member of the
international trading community. But the United States position
during the last three administrations is that China has repeated
cheated and lied, and not followed the WTO rules. Even when the WTO
rules against China, China just ignores the ruling (as it has ignored
the Hague Tribunal ruling that China's activities in the South China
Sea are illegal), and continues to lie and cheat. So the Trump
administration would not agree to continue trade rules as they have
been.

So the wording of the communiqué, as shown above, will not make any
difference in trade, but it did allow the communiqué to be adopted.

The other major problem area is the Paris climate change treaty. All
the other 19 countries supported the treaty and wanted to say so in
the communiqué, so they compromised on this text:

<QUOTE>"20. Signatories to the Paris Agreement, who have also
joined the Hamburg Action Plan, reaffirm that the Paris Agreement
is irreversible and commit to its full implementation, reflecting
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in light of different national circumstances. We
will continue to tackle climate change, while promoting
sustainable development and economic growth.

21. The United States reiterates its decision to withdraw from the
Paris Agreement, and affirms its strong commitment to economic
growth and energy access and security, utilizing all energy
sources and technologies, while protecting the
environment."<END QUOTE>


So that solved the Paris agreement problem.

Other issues were resolved in similar ways. Vladimir Putin vetoed any
reference to the seizure near the Kerch Strait, and any mention of the
murder of Jamal Khashoggi was omitted. G-20 Final Communiqué (PDF) and Bloomberg and AP

****
**** Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agree to a 90 day moratorium in trade war
****


Investors around the world are breathing a sigh of relief today, as
Donald Trump and China's president Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day
moratorium on further tariffs in the so-called "trade war." The US
has already imposed 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, and
threatened to raise that rate to 25% on January 1. That change will
be delayed for 90 days.

In exchange, the US will get the following:
  • Immediate start on negotiations about China's problematic
    trade practices: intellectual property theft, non-tariff barriers and
    cyber theft.

  • China also agreed to boost its purchases of agricultural and
    industrial goods to reduce its trade imbalance with the U.S., she
    said.

  • There will also be negotiations on restricting opioid shipments
    from China to America, including fentanyl.

  • China is "open to approving" the purchase of Dutch semiconductor
    manufacturer NXP by American chipmaker Qualcomm, which China had
    previously rejected on antitrust grounds.

The trade conflict, which has rattled financial markets and upended
global supply chains, began this year when Trump imposed tariffs on a
total of $253 billion of imported Chinese steel, industrial products
and consumer goods, including handbags, furniture and appliances.
Chinese officials, caught off guard by the aggressive U.S. moves,
retaliated with import taxes on such American products as soybeans,
automobiles and liquefied natural gas. Washington Post and Russia Today
and Reuters

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, G-20, Brazil, China, India, and Russia,
G-7, United States, Britain, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada,
Vladimir Putin, Kerch Strait, Ukraine, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde, Theresa May,
Angela Merkel, Xi Jinping, World Trade Organization, WTO

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
2-Dec-18 World View -- Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agree to a 90 day moratorium in tr - by John J. Xenakis - 12-02-2018, 01:02 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,800 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,387 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,660 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,218 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,322 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 11 Guest(s)