12-04-2018, 11:54 PM
*** 5-Dec-18 World View -- Ukraine and Turkey develop closer relationship amid Russia's aggression
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia 'partially unblocks' Ukraine's ports
****
![[Image: g181125c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181125c.jpg)
Russia on November 25 blockaded the Sea of Azov with a tanker underneath the Kerch Strait bridge (AP)
Ukraine said on Tuesday that Russia had "partially unblocked" access
to its blockaded Berdyanks and Mariupol ports on the Sea of Azov. As
of Monday, ships were allowed to move in both directions through the
Kerch Strai separating the Azov and Black Seas, although Russia stops
all ships and inspects them.
Russia blockaded access to the Ukrainian ports on November 25, when
Russia rammed, fired on, boarded and seized three Ukrainian navy
vessels, accusing them of traveling through territorial waters of
occupied Crimea, which Russia had invaded and annexed in 2015.
Legal experts point out that under international law, the "innocent
passage" of the three ships should have been permitted, even if they
were within Crimean or Russian territorial waters.
Analysis of photos of the Ukrainian ships after the incident shows
that they were rammed four times by the Russian warship, and that the
Russian live fire was aimed to injure or kill the Ukrainian sailors,
rather than to disable their ships.
Russia seized 24 crew members in the incident, and charged them with
illegal border crossing. The Russians released videos of confessions
by two of the Ukrainians. The confessions appear to have been
coerced. The 24 crew members have been incarcerated in Moscow.
Observers fear that Russia intends a further invasion of Ukraine after
completely blockading the Sea of Azov. Russia denies this, but Russia
denied invading east Ukraine when it was invading east Ukraine, Russia
denied invading Crimea when it was invading Crimea, Russia denied that
it would annex Crimea days before it annexed Crimea, so the denial of
further invasion plans is part of the same pattern. Bloomberg and Defense News and Bellingcat and RFE/RL
****
**** Turkey and Ukraine may establish strategic military partnership against Russia
****
Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea struck at both Ukraine and
Turkey. Crimea is part of Ukraine's sovereign territory, and the
population of Crimea prior to the Russian invasion is most Tatars, a
Turkic race ethnically related to the population of Turkey. In fact,
Russia and Turkey have fought centuries of Crimean Wars.
Last month on November 3-4, prior to the Kerch Strait seizures,
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko visited Turkey to meet with
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They discussed issues
falling into three main “baskets”: the military, economics, and
Turkish arbitration in Ukraine’s relations with Russia -- in
particular, concerning the situation of the Tatars in occupied Crimea.
This was the latest in Ukrainian-Turkish initiatives to cooperate in
the military sphere, including joint development of weapons systems.
The growing military cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine is, at the
very least, an annoyance to Russia. Beyond that, particularly with
Turkey as a member of Nato, the cooperation limits Russia's hand in
the Black Sea.
Since the Kerch Strait incident on November 25, Turkey has offered to
play a "mediator" role between Ukraine and Russia to resolve the
crisis. Ukraine has made two requests for protection from further
aggression by Russia.
First, Ukraine has asked Nato to conduct "Freedom of Navigation
Operations" (FONOPS) through the Kerch Strait, just as the US Navy
warships conduct FONOPS through the South China Sea. It's unlikely
that Nato will grant this request.
Second, Ukraine has asked Turkey to invoke the Montreux Convention, to
shut down the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, in order to block passage
of Russia's ships between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Once
again, it's unlikely that this request will be granted. Jamestown and Anadolu and AFP and UNIAN (Ukraine)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Sea of Azov, Russia, Kerch Strait,
Crimea, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Turkey, China, South China Sea,
Petro Poroshenko, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Montreux Convention, Bosphorus, Dardanelles
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia 'partially unblocks' Ukraine's ports
- Turkey and Ukraine may establish strategic military partnership against Russia
****
**** Russia 'partially unblocks' Ukraine's ports
****
Russia on November 25 blockaded the Sea of Azov with a tanker underneath the Kerch Strait bridge (AP)
Ukraine said on Tuesday that Russia had "partially unblocked" access
to its blockaded Berdyanks and Mariupol ports on the Sea of Azov. As
of Monday, ships were allowed to move in both directions through the
Kerch Strai separating the Azov and Black Seas, although Russia stops
all ships and inspects them.
Russia blockaded access to the Ukrainian ports on November 25, when
Russia rammed, fired on, boarded and seized three Ukrainian navy
vessels, accusing them of traveling through territorial waters of
occupied Crimea, which Russia had invaded and annexed in 2015.
Legal experts point out that under international law, the "innocent
passage" of the three ships should have been permitted, even if they
were within Crimean or Russian territorial waters.
Analysis of photos of the Ukrainian ships after the incident shows
that they were rammed four times by the Russian warship, and that the
Russian live fire was aimed to injure or kill the Ukrainian sailors,
rather than to disable their ships.
Russia seized 24 crew members in the incident, and charged them with
illegal border crossing. The Russians released videos of confessions
by two of the Ukrainians. The confessions appear to have been
coerced. The 24 crew members have been incarcerated in Moscow.
Observers fear that Russia intends a further invasion of Ukraine after
completely blockading the Sea of Azov. Russia denies this, but Russia
denied invading east Ukraine when it was invading east Ukraine, Russia
denied invading Crimea when it was invading Crimea, Russia denied that
it would annex Crimea days before it annexed Crimea, so the denial of
further invasion plans is part of the same pattern. Bloomberg and Defense News and Bellingcat and RFE/RL
****
**** Turkey and Ukraine may establish strategic military partnership against Russia
****
Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea struck at both Ukraine and
Turkey. Crimea is part of Ukraine's sovereign territory, and the
population of Crimea prior to the Russian invasion is most Tatars, a
Turkic race ethnically related to the population of Turkey. In fact,
Russia and Turkey have fought centuries of Crimean Wars.
Last month on November 3-4, prior to the Kerch Strait seizures,
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko visited Turkey to meet with
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They discussed issues
falling into three main “baskets”: the military, economics, and
Turkish arbitration in Ukraine’s relations with Russia -- in
particular, concerning the situation of the Tatars in occupied Crimea.
This was the latest in Ukrainian-Turkish initiatives to cooperate in
the military sphere, including joint development of weapons systems.
The growing military cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine is, at the
very least, an annoyance to Russia. Beyond that, particularly with
Turkey as a member of Nato, the cooperation limits Russia's hand in
the Black Sea.
Since the Kerch Strait incident on November 25, Turkey has offered to
play a "mediator" role between Ukraine and Russia to resolve the
crisis. Ukraine has made two requests for protection from further
aggression by Russia.
First, Ukraine has asked Nato to conduct "Freedom of Navigation
Operations" (FONOPS) through the Kerch Strait, just as the US Navy
warships conduct FONOPS through the South China Sea. It's unlikely
that Nato will grant this request.
Second, Ukraine has asked Turkey to invoke the Montreux Convention, to
shut down the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, in order to block passage
of Russia's ships between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Once
again, it's unlikely that this request will be granted. Jamestown and Anadolu and AFP and UNIAN (Ukraine)
Related Articles:
- Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
- Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia (12-Oct-2018)
- Crimean Tatars and Ukraine seek help from Sunni Muslim countries (25-Apr-2014)
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine (15-Aug-2014)
- UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Sea of Azov, Russia, Kerch Strait,
Crimea, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Turkey, China, South China Sea,
Petro Poroshenko, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Montreux Convention, Bosphorus, Dardanelles
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
