12-10-2018, 11:38 PM
*** 11-Dec-18 World View -- Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities
****
![[Image: g181210b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181210b.jpg)
The city of Goma in DR Congo remains Ebola-free so far (AFP)
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is now
the second-largest in history. The current outbreak, that was
declared on August 1, has 471 identified cases, of which 423 are
confirmed, including 225 confirmed deaths. However, that's nowhere
near the size of the 2014-2016 outbreak that killed more than 11,300
people.
The big difference between the current outbreak and the 2014 outbreak
is that an experimental vaccine is available this time, and it seems
to be working. Teams of health workers from Doctors Without Borders
(Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) have vaccinated more than 41,000
people so far. It's estimated that without the vaccine, there would
already be more than 10,000 Ebola cases in the current outbreak.
The vaccine is used in conjunction with contact tracing. When an
Ebola case is suspected, health workers identify the patient's
contacts and their contacts, and all those people are given the
vaccine, in case they've been infected.
The current epidemic is centered around the city of Beni in North Kivu
province, which is in the middle of a war zone with a population of
400,000. Militias have attacked health workers, making it almost
impossible to do the contact tracing necessary to stop the progress of
the disease, so it may be 6-12 more months before the current epidemic
can be stopped completely.
More worrisome is that the outbreak has been spreading southward, and
there are now identified cases in the city of Butembo, which has one
million residents. Furthermore, new cases are increasing quickly in
the eastern suburbs and outlying, isolated districts. In some cases,
not all residents of hard-to-reach communities have received the
vaccines. Public and private health centers with inadequate infection
prevention and control (IPC) practices continue to be major source of
amplification of the outbreak.
The greatest concern now is that it will spread further south to the
city of Goma, a major population center and regional hub for
transportation -- air, road, truck -- with a population of two
million, including the suburbs. No cases of Ebola have been
identified in Goma yet.
There may not be enough of the experimental vaccine to service the
huge populations in Beni, Butembo and Goma. The current stockpile is
300,000 doses. Merck has a supply of the vaccine, but Merck says that
it takes about a year, start to finish, to produce a batch of the
vaccine. World Health Organization (WHO) and Australian AP and STAT News
****
**** Uganda and South Sudan vaccinate health workers against Ebola
****
As the Ebola epidemic spreads southward, it has so far remained with
DRC. But North Kivu province is on the border with Uganda and South
Sudan, and tens of thousands of people cross these borders in both
directions every day, so it's possible that the disease will spread
into those two countries. If it spreads into a transportation hub
like Goma, then it may spread even farther into other countries.
Uganda last month announced plans to roll out vaccinations to 3,000
frontline health workers. According to Uganda's health minister, "We
have not waited for the first case to arrive. The vaccination is
continuing."
About 2,160 doses of the Ebola vaccine have been allocated to South
Sudan and will be administered to healthcare and frontline workers.
The country is on high alert and no confirmed case has been detected
as of December 8.
World Health Organization (WHO)
and New Vision (Uganda)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Beni, Butembo, Goma, Uganda, South Sudan,
World Health Organization, WHO, Merck,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities
- Uganda and South Sudan vaccinate health workers against Ebola
****
**** Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities
****
The city of Goma in DR Congo remains Ebola-free so far (AFP)
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is now
the second-largest in history. The current outbreak, that was
declared on August 1, has 471 identified cases, of which 423 are
confirmed, including 225 confirmed deaths. However, that's nowhere
near the size of the 2014-2016 outbreak that killed more than 11,300
people.
The big difference between the current outbreak and the 2014 outbreak
is that an experimental vaccine is available this time, and it seems
to be working. Teams of health workers from Doctors Without Borders
(Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) have vaccinated more than 41,000
people so far. It's estimated that without the vaccine, there would
already be more than 10,000 Ebola cases in the current outbreak.
The vaccine is used in conjunction with contact tracing. When an
Ebola case is suspected, health workers identify the patient's
contacts and their contacts, and all those people are given the
vaccine, in case they've been infected.
The current epidemic is centered around the city of Beni in North Kivu
province, which is in the middle of a war zone with a population of
400,000. Militias have attacked health workers, making it almost
impossible to do the contact tracing necessary to stop the progress of
the disease, so it may be 6-12 more months before the current epidemic
can be stopped completely.
More worrisome is that the outbreak has been spreading southward, and
there are now identified cases in the city of Butembo, which has one
million residents. Furthermore, new cases are increasing quickly in
the eastern suburbs and outlying, isolated districts. In some cases,
not all residents of hard-to-reach communities have received the
vaccines. Public and private health centers with inadequate infection
prevention and control (IPC) practices continue to be major source of
amplification of the outbreak.
The greatest concern now is that it will spread further south to the
city of Goma, a major population center and regional hub for
transportation -- air, road, truck -- with a population of two
million, including the suburbs. No cases of Ebola have been
identified in Goma yet.
There may not be enough of the experimental vaccine to service the
huge populations in Beni, Butembo and Goma. The current stockpile is
300,000 doses. Merck has a supply of the vaccine, but Merck says that
it takes about a year, start to finish, to produce a batch of the
vaccine. World Health Organization (WHO) and Australian AP and STAT News
****
**** Uganda and South Sudan vaccinate health workers against Ebola
****
As the Ebola epidemic spreads southward, it has so far remained with
DRC. But North Kivu province is on the border with Uganda and South
Sudan, and tens of thousands of people cross these borders in both
directions every day, so it's possible that the disease will spread
into those two countries. If it spreads into a transportation hub
like Goma, then it may spread even farther into other countries.
Uganda last month announced plans to roll out vaccinations to 3,000
frontline health workers. According to Uganda's health minister, "We
have not waited for the first case to arrive. The vaccination is
continuing."
About 2,160 doses of the Ebola vaccine have been allocated to South
Sudan and will be administered to healthcare and frontline workers.
The country is on high alert and no confirmed case has been detected
as of December 8.
World Health Organization (WHO)
and New Vision (Uganda)
Related Articles:
- WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency (16-Oct-2018)
- World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo (17-May-2017)
- West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies (16-Aug-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Beni, Butembo, Goma, Uganda, South Sudan,
World Health Organization, WHO, Merck,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
