Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Dec-18 World View -- Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump's announcement of troop withdrawal signals end of 'War on Terror'
  
• Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria
  
• The future of ISIS and the Kurds
  
• The future of Afghanistan
  
• The future of Generational Dynamics
  

****
**** Donald Trump's announcement of troop withdrawal signals end of 'War on Terror'
****


James Mattis and Donald Trump (Reuters)

President Donald Trump's announcements of troop withdrawal from Syria
and partial troop withdrawal from Afghanistan signal a major policy
change, in that it signals the end of the "War on Terror" that began
on 9/11/2001.

The announcement is being widely ridiculed by the mainstream press and
politicians, most of whom probably couldn't find Syria on a map if
they had to.

Much of the ridicule followed from the letter of resignation from
Defense Secretary James Mattis, following Trump's announcement:

<QUOTE>"My views on treating allies with respect and also
being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic
competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of
immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to
advance an international order that is most conducive to our
security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this
effort by the solidarity of our alliances.

Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose
views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I
believe it is right for me to step down from my
position."<END QUOTE>

Brett McGurk, special presidential envoy for the global coalition to
defeat ISIS, also resigned. Typical remarks from the mainstream media
are that the Trump White House is now in a downward spiral because
Mattis was "the only adult in the room."

With this major change of policy occurring right at the end of 2018,
an end-of-the-year look at events is in order. As the end of the year
approaches, this is a good time for a thorough review of many
Generational Dynamics principles and to see how these principles apply
to an in-depth analysis of the announced troop withdrawal from Syria.
Military Times and Fox News

****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria
****

In the last two years, I've seen and heard one hysterical condemnation
of president Trump's policies after another in the mainstream media,
mostly from so-called "experts" who have no clue what's going on in
the world. These people have been wrong almost every time, but that
never stops them.

On the other hand, I've written thousands of generational analyses in
the last 15 years, and they've all turned out to be true or are
trending true. None has turned out to be wrong.

The withdrawal from Syria signals a major change in policy that has
completely baffled the mainstream "experts." So these people have
been repeatedly wrong time after time for two years, and I've been
repeatedly right for two years, so I'm pretty sure I'm going to be
right again, and they're going to be wrong again. So, Dear Reader,
believe whom you wish.

In the last two years, I've pointed out many times that Trump's
policies make perfect sense when viewed from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics. Trump himself is familiar with Generational
Dynamics analyses, because he was educated about them by his former
chief strategist and advisor Steve Bannon, with whom I worked off and
on for several years. And, once again, despite the fact that the
mainstream "experts" are totally baffled, Trump's policies in Syria
make perfect sense from the point of view of Generational Dynamics.

Actually, this one is pretty easy. The Generational Dynamics
prediction has always been that we're headed for a "Clash of
Civilizations world war." The "allies" will be the United States,
India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, and
the Sunni Muslim countries.

I've written about the reasons for this hundreds of times, and the
summary behind the reasoning is as follows: China is very closely
allied with Pakistan, which is very closely allied with the Sunni
states. China and India are bitter enemies, as are Pakistan and
India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and India is very
closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims
going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680. Connecting the dots, the
US is going to be allied with India, Russia and Iran, versus China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If that seems surprising,
remember that Russia was our bitter enemy before WW II, was our ally
during WW II, and was our bitter enemy after WW II, so you can't judge
from today's political alignments how nations will act when they're
facing an existential crisis in the form of a generational crisis war.

So that's the Generational Dynamics prediction, and we assume that
Trump is aware of it and believes it, as he should. Now we take note
of the of the following:

• ISIS is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Al-Qaeda is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Iran is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Russia is not an existential threat to America. (It may
  be an existential threat to Ukraine, but not to America.)
  
• The Taliban in Afghanistan is not an existential threat
  to America.
  
• There will always be disparate individuals conducting terrorist
  attacks, and in that sense the "war on terror" can never be won.
  
• China, backed by North Korea, IS an existential threat to
  America.

So if you're baffled by Trump's withdrawal policy, just read the above
list. When you look at that list, it makes perfect sense to withdraw
some resources from Syria and Afghanistan, in order to allocate them
to the approaching war with China. It makes perfect sense to prepare
for the coming preemptive attack by China on the United States.
Keeping troops in Syria does not do that.

So why did Mattis and McGurk leave? I don't know for sure, of course,
but I assume that Mattis and McGurk don't believe that we're headed
for a war with China. They're wrong. I assume that many people
reading this article don't believe that we're headed for a war with
China. You're wrong. If Mattis and McGurk want to focus a lot of
resources in Syria, then they're "fighting the last war." If Mattis
and McGurk are unwilling to face what's going on in the world with
China, with startling events unfolding in China almost every day, then
Mattis and McGurk should go.

On Sunday morning I listened to the news shows, and heard one "expert"
after another talk about "chaos," "Trump out of control," "Trump is
crazy," "the wheels are coming off," "Trump should be impeached," and
so on. I would be concerned, except that it's no different from what
I've heard every Sunday for two years, except that the screams today
are perhaps a bit louder and a bit more hysterical and high-pitched.

I have a theory. I think that most people are viscerally aware that
we're headed for war with China, and they can't stand to think about
it, so they become hysterical and displace their hysteria from China
to Trump. There was a similar level of hysteria in the late 1930s
directed at Franklin Roosevelt, as the war in Europe against Nazi
Germany approached. The best example was Neville Chamberlain's
promise of "Peace in our time." Washington Post

****
**** The future of ISIS and the Kurds
****

The big picture is that it makes sense to withdraw forces from Syria
in order to prepare for an inevitable war with China. But many people
believe that we have a moral obligation to protect the Kurds and to
continue to fight ISIS. (Many other people claim that we never any
business being in Syria in the first place.)

An argument that I heard several times in mainstream media is: "Trump
says ISIS is defeated and he's wrong. ISIS is still in Syria, in
Egypt, in Nigeria, in Yemen, in Afghanistan, and so forth. ISIS is
spreading around the world, and is nowhere near being defeated."

This argument was put forth by several "experts" -- college
professors, book authors, diplomats, etc. And yet, this argument is
so dumb that it serves as a good example of brainless idiocy we're
seeing as common fare today.

Let's take Egypt for example. Has ISIS really spread to Egypt? The
jihadist group in Egypt was originally the al-Qaeda linked
Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM). In
2015 it changed its name to al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) and
changed its allegiance to ISIS. This was a change for public
relations reasons, and nothing else. It allows ABM to be associated
with an up-and-coming brand name, and it allows Amaq, the ISIS public
relations agency, to put out press releases about the group. But it's
exactly the same group. Being aligned with ISIS or aligned with
al-Qaeda is completely irrelevant. Now that ISIS is on the run, ABM
may change their allegiance back to al-Qaeda, though they'll look like
complete fools if they do. The point is that fighting ISIS in Syria
has nothing to do with fighting ABM in Egypt. The two are completely
unrelated except for a public relations link.

This is really basic, obvious stuff, that any so-called "expert"
should understand before calling himself an "expert." Instead, these
"experts" have no clue what's going on, probably couldn't pick out
Syria on map if they had to, are wrong time after time, and yet
continue to say one really dumb thing after another. It reminds me of
2007, when a survey by Congressional Quarterly and the London Times
revealed that so-called "experts" at the time didn't even know whether
al-Qaeda was a Shia or Sunni group. ( "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)"
) All of this goes well
beyond ideology. It's sheer ignorance and stupidity, by people who
babble endlessly with no idea what they're saying.

So what about ISIS in Syria? Is ISIS defeated there, as Trump
claimed? ISIS mainly consists of jihadists who came to Syria to fight
against Bashar al-Assad after he began genocidal attacks and ethnic
cleansing targeting Arab Sunnis, particularly after his massive attack
on innocent women and children in a Palestinian refugee camp near
Latakia. ( "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria"
)

In November 2016, the US announced a joint operation with the Kurdish
led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) to recapture al-Raqqa, the ISIS
"capital city" and "Caliphate," and a city of over 300,000 people,
from ISIS. ( "7-Nov-16 World View -- US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation"
)

That was the commitment that President Obama made, and President Trump
followed through on that commitment. There was no commitment to fight
ISIS forever, and there was no commitment to protect the Kurds
forever. The Kurds are better off today than they were when the joint
operation began, and ISIS has been ejected from al-Raqqa, and has been
reduced to just one of many local jihadist groups in the world.
America's commitment has been met.

I discussed some of these issues in yesterday's article on al-Shabaab in Somalia.
America has been
fighting the "war on terror" since 9/11/2001, and by one estimate,
America is still conducting counterterror operations in 76 countries.
And yet, after 17 years, the war on terror has been increasingly a
failure. As I've written many times, the current violence in the
Arab/Muslim world can be dated to three epochal events that occurred in 1979.
These were Iran's
Islamic Revolution, the Salafist attack on Saudi Arabia's Grand
Mosque, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. These three events
led to the growth of modern terrorism, including the 9/11 attacks, and
there is absolutely nothing that the US can do to stop this, certainly
not with US special forces.

Here we have one more example of so-called Mideast "experts" having
absolutely no clue what's going on. They have no idea what happened
in 1979, they go on tv and make one dumb statement after another, they
always turn out to be wrong, but it goes on anyway. That's the world
we live in.

One particularly laughable "expert" interview occurred on Sunday on
the BBC World Service. The politician made every possible criticism
of Trump and the Syria decision that he could think of. The interview
lasted about four minutes, and at different times he said that Trump
would be turning northeast Syria over to a reconstituted ISIS, and
then to Iran, and then to Russia, and then to Turkey, and also to
al-Assad. Oh really? Which one is it? And if there's a war among
all these groups, does we really want the American military to be
involved in it? On whose side? There's a war coming, no matter what
we do.

The point is that terrorism will not be stopped, and is the precursor
to a larger regional Mideast war that is coming with 100% certainty,
pitting Arabs vs Jews, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups
against each other. This will be part of the Clash of Civilizations
world war, and nothing can be done to prevent it.

America's joint operation with the SDF to eject ISIS from al-Raqqa was
a benefit to America, to Europe, the Kurds, and the world. But it's
over now. America is in no position to fight ISIS forever, or to
protect the Kurds forever, and troop withdrawal from Syria was going
to happen sometime. Business Insider

****
**** The future of Afghanistan
****

In addition to a troop withdrawal from Syria, President Trump
announced that 7,000 of the 14,000 American troops in Afghanistan
would be brought home.

Ever since President Obama announced the troop surge into Afghanistan
in 2009, I've written repeatedly that the Taliban cannot be defeated.
This is an outcome of the 1980s Soviet war in Afghanistan and, more
importantly, the extremely bloody Afghan civil war from 1991-96. This
is yet another example of something that the mainstream so-called
"experts" are completely oblivious to, and yet these are the crucial
events to understanding what's going on today.

The events of the last ten years have shown that this war cannot be
won, and the situation is actually getting worse each year. Earlier
this month, Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the incoming head of the US
Central Command, testified that the Afghanistan war is unsustainable.

Reducing the number of American troops in Afghanistan does not end our
commitment to Afghanistan, which is to aid in the training of Afghan
soldiers to defend themselves. It does mean that the Taliban have
fewer American targets to kill, which is probably a good thing.

In the past, I've speculated that a part of President Trump's strategy
is that, as war with China and Pakistan approaches, to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. If this is the strategy,
then removing 7,000 troops will probably not affect it. Fox News


****
**** The future of Generational Dynamics
****

At my age, I'm unable to get employment as a journalist, analyst, or a
senior software engineer, because no one wants to hire an older
person. (Actually, age discrimination in the computer industry is so
great that no one over age 45 or so can get a job anymore.) This
means that my only income source is social security, and I'm going to
run out of money in a few months, which will be the end of BOTH me and
Generational Dynamics. I've done this work for years as a public
service, but now that has to end. If you think that this work has
been valuable, then any help that anyone can provide to resolve this
situation would be greatly appreciated. Resume

Related Articles:

• Al-Shabaab double bombing kills 16 people in Mogadishu, Somalia (23-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation (07-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia (21-May-2017)
  
  
• Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Afghanistan, al-Raqqa,
James Mattis, Brett McGurk, Steve Bannon,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds,
China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Battle of Karbala,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Neville Chamberlain, Egypt,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Bedouins, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai,
Libya, al-Shabaab, Saudi Arabia, Grand Mosque, Iran, Turkey

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John J. Xenakis
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