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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • In turnaround, Saudi Arabia will give $10 billion to Pakistan, rejecting Iran
  • India takes over operations at Iran's Chabahar port, despite US sanctions

****
**** In turnaround, Saudi Arabia will give $10 billion to Pakistan, rejecting Iran
****


[Image: g190112b.jpg]
Pakistan's president Imran Khan and Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman meet in October in Riyadh (SPA)

From the first day that Pakistan's prime minister took off in August,
the country has been facing an imminent financial crisis and
bankruptcy, due to a lack of foreign reserves (that is, US dollars
that it can use to purchase imported goods).

First, Imran Khan, self-described as "desperate," went begging to
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for a loan, but
returned empty-handed.

Then Khan went begging to its "all-weather friend," China, but
once again came back empty-handed.

What China really wanted was for Khan to get money from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), so that the IMF, and the US
taxpayer, would be supplying money to repay China's loans for
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the Gwadar seaport.
The IMF was willing, but insisted first that all details of all
contracts between Pakistan and China be made available to the
IMF, and China vetoed that idea. So the negotiation with the IMF
failed.

Then there was a world-shaking event that changed everything:
Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was bizarrely killed in the
Saudi Arabian embassy in Istanbul, Turkey, and everyone in the world
was blaming Saudi Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Imran Khan
was able to return to return to Saudi Arabia as almost the only
national leader left who was willing to support MBS. Khan leveraged
MBS's embarrassment to obtain a $6 billion loan from Saudi Arabia.

However, Pakistan still needed an additional $12-15 billion
in aid to survive through 2019. A renewed request to the IMF
yielded the same results as before.

But now there's been a turnaround. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are
likely to sign memoranda of understanding for more than $10 billion
Saudi investment in Pakistan this month. This will be in addition
to the $6 billion in aid already agreed.

There are two major geopolitical effects from this deal.

First, Imran Khan, before he was prime minister, was one of
the most vocal opponents of the proposal to send Pakistani
troops to join the war in Yemen on the side of Saudi Arabia.
The $16 billion in Saudi aid to Pakistan may have come
with strings attached, namely that Pakistan will have to provide
some sort of support, perhaps even troops, to the Saudi effort
in Yemen.

The second effect is related to the first, since the Yemen war
is proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Pakistan has
been trying to remain neutral between the two countries, possibly
even taking the lead in mediating. This situation means that
Pakistan will be clearly on the side against Iran, and
both the Arab and Iranian press have been saying so.

The Generational Dynamics prediction for almost fifteen years has been
that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, China and
Pakistan would be allied with Saudi Arabia. As a result of the $16
billion in aid, Pakistan is now clearly allied with China and Saudi
Arabia. Dawn (Pakistan) and Arab Weekly and Global Village Space

Related Articles:

****
**** India takes over operations at Iran's Chabahar port, despite US sanctions
****


India has taken over operations of the strategic Chabahar port, on the
coast of Iran near Pakistan. India and Iran signed a deal in 2016 too
develop the port, so that India can bypass Pakistan in shipping goods
to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
( "25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China"
)

During the last year, development of the Chabahar port
faced special difficulties after the US re-imposed sanctions
on Iran, making the Chabahar port project a violation of
the sanctions, since it required India to import Iranian oil.
However, India and Iran received one of the waivers that
the Trump administration gave, so the port project could proceed.

In addition, Iran and India have signed banking agreements that allow
imports and exports, as well as other financial needs, can be handled
despite the sanctions. Part of these agreements allow goods to be
exchanged in a barter system. For example, India can provide steel
rails and locomotive engines to Iran and Iran can provide urea to
India.

Just as the aid deal cemented the relationship between Saudi Arabia
and Pakistan, the Chabahar port has cemented the relationship between
India and Iran. For almost fifteen years, Generational Dynamics has
predicted that America, India, Iran and Russia would be allied in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and the Chabahar port
deal brings that alliance one step closer. Actually, Hindus and Shia
Muslims have been allied against Sunni Muslims for centuries, going
back as far as the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680. Tehran Times and India Today and Eurasian Times

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan,
Iran Khan, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, China,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Gwadar seaport.
Jamal Khashoggi, Istanbul, Turkey,
India, Iran, Chabahar seaport, Battle of Karbala, Russia

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen i - by John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2019, 12:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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