01-19-2019, 12:03 AM
*** 19-Jan-19 World View -- Ebola outbreak in DR Congo now spreading exponentially faster
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ebola outbreak in DR Congo now spreading exponentially faster
****
![[Image: g190118b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190118b.jpg)
A woman cries during the funeral of a child, suspected of dying from Ebola. (Reuters)
The number of Ebola cases recorded each day in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) has doubled, indicating that it may spread to other
regions and other countries.
According to Jean-Philippe Marcoux, country directory for Mercy Corps
in DRC:
<QUOTE>"Now it’s doubling – it’s very possible that it can
double again. If we don’t significantly increase the resources,
it will keep increasing. It will spread progressively to other
health areas and it will be there for a long time."<END QUOTE>
If this doubling continues, it would represent exponential growth.
The current Ebola outbreak in DRC began in July 2018, and is now the
largest in that country’s history and the second largest ever
recorded. According to the country’s health ministry, as of January
17, 2019 there have been 668 cases and 410 deaths in the outbreak
The cases are centered in two northeastern provinces, North Kivu and
Ituru, which is a war zone in an extremely violent ongoing ethnic
civil war. No cases have yet been identified outside DRC, but the
increasing rapid spread of the disease is raising concerns that it
will soon travel to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and even South Sudan.
The epidemic was originally centered in Beni, with a population of
232,000. But it's spread to Butembo, with a population of over a
million, a densely populated trade city near the Uganda border.
Further south along the highway from Butembo are the million-plus
population cities Goma and Bukavu. The World Health Organization
(WHO) has been focusing its efforts on preventing a spread to the
latter two cities, since "all bets are off" for stopping the epidemic
if it reaches there.
The problem is that the continuing war causes the disease to spread in
an uncontrolled and unexpected fashion. The result is that new cases
of Ebola keep popping up in unforeseen places and people.
Normally, the medical professionals use contact tracing to identify
potential chains of transmission before they occur. Once a person is
suspected of having Ebola, all the people that he might have had in
contact with are identified and given a vaccine. But the ongoing war
often makes contact tracing impossible, with the result that nearly
70% of the newly discovered cases have fallen outside of known chains
of transmission. Another problem is that rape is common in any war
zone, and so Ebola can be spread among women, soldiers, gangs, arms
smugglers and rapists. More than one-third of the Ebola cases have
been in children, and the majority of identified adult infections have
been in women.
WHO is predicting that the outbreak will continue for six more months
or even longer. But even if the outbreak could be contained quickly
-- and it can't -- then the it could quickly be restarted because the
disease can be transmitted sexually up to 18 months after an
individual’s cure, and it can also pass from pregnant mothers to their
fetuses. Guardian (London) and Kaiser Family Foundation and Daily Mail (London)
****
**** Local DRC population giving little cooperation to health officials
****
The local population in the North Kivu war zone in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) are often refusing to cooperate with health
officials to stop the epidemic. Even worse, health officials have
been kidnapped or killed by armed groups, and treatment centers have
been ransacked.
There are several issues:
It's interesting to trace the changes in public mood and attitude
toward Ebola.
When the huge outbreak began in western Africa in 2014, there was
almost international hysteria. It continued into 2015, and only
really subsided when the outbreak ended in 2016.
Early in 2018, there was an outbreak in western DRC (the other end of
the country from the current outbreak). This raised international
concern, but world health officials ended it quickly, thanks to the
new experimental vaccine.
Then in July 2018, the new outbreak began in eastern DRC, in North
Kivu. Having an active outbreak of Ebola has become the "new normal"
in people's minds, and so there has been little concern or media
coverage. And why should there be any media coverage, when there are
more important subjects -- Brexit in Europe, the border wall in
America, and jailing Canadians in China.
But even among the local population in North Kivu, there seems to be
little concern. Many people don't believe anything the UN says, and
don't believe there's an Ebola outbreak. Others just assume that it
will be quickly ended, like the previous Ebola outbreaks. Others
simply have other worries on their minds -- getting beaten, raped, or
shot by gangs or warring militias.
If a few cases pop up in neighboring countries, health officials will
move quickly to contain them, and will probably succeed since they
aren't in war zones. The real danger is that Ebola will become
endemic in North Kivu and become a continuing source of infection that
can go on for years. Foreign Policy and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Beni, Butembo, Goma, Bukavu,
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan,
World Health Organization, WHO, Merck,
Centers for Disease Control, CDC,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF
Jean-Philippe Marcoux, Mercy Corps
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ebola outbreak in DR Congo now spreading exponentially faster
- Local DRC population giving little cooperation to health officials
****
**** Ebola outbreak in DR Congo now spreading exponentially faster
****
A woman cries during the funeral of a child, suspected of dying from Ebola. (Reuters)
The number of Ebola cases recorded each day in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) has doubled, indicating that it may spread to other
regions and other countries.
According to Jean-Philippe Marcoux, country directory for Mercy Corps
in DRC:
<QUOTE>"Now it’s doubling – it’s very possible that it can
double again. If we don’t significantly increase the resources,
it will keep increasing. It will spread progressively to other
health areas and it will be there for a long time."<END QUOTE>
If this doubling continues, it would represent exponential growth.
The current Ebola outbreak in DRC began in July 2018, and is now the
largest in that country’s history and the second largest ever
recorded. According to the country’s health ministry, as of January
17, 2019 there have been 668 cases and 410 deaths in the outbreak
The cases are centered in two northeastern provinces, North Kivu and
Ituru, which is a war zone in an extremely violent ongoing ethnic
civil war. No cases have yet been identified outside DRC, but the
increasing rapid spread of the disease is raising concerns that it
will soon travel to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and even South Sudan.
The epidemic was originally centered in Beni, with a population of
232,000. But it's spread to Butembo, with a population of over a
million, a densely populated trade city near the Uganda border.
Further south along the highway from Butembo are the million-plus
population cities Goma and Bukavu. The World Health Organization
(WHO) has been focusing its efforts on preventing a spread to the
latter two cities, since "all bets are off" for stopping the epidemic
if it reaches there.
The problem is that the continuing war causes the disease to spread in
an uncontrolled and unexpected fashion. The result is that new cases
of Ebola keep popping up in unforeseen places and people.
Normally, the medical professionals use contact tracing to identify
potential chains of transmission before they occur. Once a person is
suspected of having Ebola, all the people that he might have had in
contact with are identified and given a vaccine. But the ongoing war
often makes contact tracing impossible, with the result that nearly
70% of the newly discovered cases have fallen outside of known chains
of transmission. Another problem is that rape is common in any war
zone, and so Ebola can be spread among women, soldiers, gangs, arms
smugglers and rapists. More than one-third of the Ebola cases have
been in children, and the majority of identified adult infections have
been in women.
WHO is predicting that the outbreak will continue for six more months
or even longer. But even if the outbreak could be contained quickly
-- and it can't -- then the it could quickly be restarted because the
disease can be transmitted sexually up to 18 months after an
individual’s cure, and it can also pass from pregnant mothers to their
fetuses. Guardian (London) and Kaiser Family Foundation and Daily Mail (London)
****
**** Local DRC population giving little cooperation to health officials
****
The local population in the North Kivu war zone in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) are often refusing to cooperate with health
officials to stop the epidemic. Even worse, health officials have
been kidnapped or killed by armed groups, and treatment centers have
been ransacked.
There are several issues:
- The best tools for preventing further spread of Ebola are
contract tracing and quarantining people who may be sick, in order to
block chains of transmission. But in the war-torn North Kivu area,
there is neither the freedom of movement nor the public compliance
necessary to do this.
- DRC's capital city Kinshasa is thousands of miles away from the
outbreak region, and the government is still in crisis because the
winner of the presidential election is still in doubt, so it's not
clear who in DRC is even in charge of solving the Ebola problem.
- Health officials complain that the Trump administration decided
months ago that the security situation was too risky to allow any
U.S. government employees, including CDC Ebola veterans, into North
Kivu.
- There have been United Nations peacekeepers in the region for
years, since the civil war began, but there's no peace to keep, and
anyway, the local population views the UN with suspicion.
- Merck, which manufactures the experimental vaccine that has been
so successful in protecting against Ebola, is showing no signs of
ramping up vaccine production to replenish or increase supplies, which
will be necessary if the outbreak spreads to Goma.
It's interesting to trace the changes in public mood and attitude
toward Ebola.
When the huge outbreak began in western Africa in 2014, there was
almost international hysteria. It continued into 2015, and only
really subsided when the outbreak ended in 2016.
Early in 2018, there was an outbreak in western DRC (the other end of
the country from the current outbreak). This raised international
concern, but world health officials ended it quickly, thanks to the
new experimental vaccine.
Then in July 2018, the new outbreak began in eastern DRC, in North
Kivu. Having an active outbreak of Ebola has become the "new normal"
in people's minds, and so there has been little concern or media
coverage. And why should there be any media coverage, when there are
more important subjects -- Brexit in Europe, the border wall in
America, and jailing Canadians in China.
But even among the local population in North Kivu, there seems to be
little concern. Many people don't believe anything the UN says, and
don't believe there's an Ebola outbreak. Others just assume that it
will be quickly ended, like the previous Ebola outbreaks. Others
simply have other worries on their minds -- getting beaten, raped, or
shot by gangs or warring militias.
If a few cases pop up in neighboring countries, health officials will
move quickly to contain them, and will probably succeed since they
aren't in war zones. The real danger is that Ebola will become
endemic in North Kivu and become a continuing source of infection that
can go on for years. Foreign Policy and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)
Related Articles:
- Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities (11-Dec-2018)
- World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo (17-May-2017)
- West Africa at significant economic risk as Ebola panic intensifies (16-Aug-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
North Kivu, Beni, Butembo, Goma, Bukavu,
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan,
World Health Organization, WHO, Merck,
Centers for Disease Control, CDC,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF
Jean-Philippe Marcoux, Mercy Corps
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
