01-19-2019, 10:31 PM
*** 20-Jan-19 World View -- Suspension of daily World View articles
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate
****
![[Image: g190119b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190119b.jpg)
Japanese patrol plane launches anti-missile flares during a fleet review in 2015 (AFP)
According to Japan, on December 20 a South Korean warship locked its
fire-control radar onto a Japanese patrol plane, as if preparing to
shoot it down. Japan made a formal protest to South Korea, claiming
that it was a "hostile act."
South Korea says that it was a maritime search and rescue operation,
with naval forces and supporting coast guard vessels, and that any
radar that was used was only ship-to-ship between Korean vessels.
Japan rejected this explanation.
South Korea then demanded that Tokyo offer a "smoking gun" -- its
analysis of radar frequency data to verify whether the destroyer sent
the warplane any signals from its tracking radar. Tokyo rejected the
call, saying it won't offer sensitive information on its "operational
capabilities."
Then, on December 28, Japan released a 13-minute video of the interior
of the patrol plane at the time of the incident, where a crew member
remarked on the plane’s systems picking up an “extremely strong”
reading.
South Korea then became more aggressive, urging Japan to apologize for
the patrol plane's low-altitude flight, which was "threatening" to the
South Korean warship, and criticized Tokyo's "unilateral,
misguided" claims. South Korea then released its own video,
saying that it refutes Tokyo's arguments.
Now, on Saturday, Japan indicated that on Sunday it might release an
audio recording of its crew at the time of the incident. South Korea
is accusing Japan of planning to use it to "distort the facts" and
release "incorrect" information.
Memories of World War II are still very raw between the two
countries, and now that the WW II survivors are gone, younger
generations are seeking revenge. Japan colonized Korea
from 1905 to 1945, and used Koreans as "comfort women" during
the war.
In 2015, Japan and Korea concluded a bilateral agreement which was
intended at the time as the “final and irreversible” resolution of the
comfort women issue. However, South Korea is now demanding that issue
be reopened.
Another issue is that, last year, because of the "charm offensive"
between North and South Korea, South Korea's military canceled the
purchase of a number of weapons whose purpose was to defend against a
North Korean invasion of Seoul. The Japanese view this as an
opportunity to redirect those funds towards weapons systems that can
be used against the Japanese.
The "radar lock" issue started out looking like something really
trivial, but as time has passed, tensions on both sides have rapidly
escalated, and the probability that the controversy or some other
misunderstanding could lead to a wider conflict is increasing.
Japan Times and Yonhap (Seoul, 1-Jan) and Diplomat (12-Jan) and Defense News (17-May-2018)
Related Articles:
****
**** Suspension of daily World View articles
****
I'm suspending daily World View articles because most of the work on
generational theory has been completed, and because the best use of my
time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China.
Since 2003, I've posted over 6,000 articles on my web site, all of
them well-sourced through multiple sources, and non-ideological.
There is no "fake news" in any of them.
These articles contain thousands of generational analyses and
predictions of over 100 countries. All of these analyses and
predictions are true or are trending true. None has turned out to be
wrong.
My work in the last ten years has been groundbreaking, on the behavior
of how a country acts in the decades after a major civil war, a
generational crisis civil war. This is a breakthrough on analyzing
and predicting the behavior of the population, the generations, and
the politicians, and showing how these nations all act pretty much the
same as each other, though differently from countries after a major
external war (invading or being invaded).
Generational Dynamics now provides the tools to government officials,
historians, journalists, and geopolitical analysts -- if they want to
use them -- to correctly analyze what's happening in the world, what
will happen next, and what the likely outcome is of different policy
decisions. No other analytical tools, besides Generational Dynamics,
have ever provided successful predictions at this level of accuracy
and usefulness.
****
**** Generational Dynamics development of generational theory
****
For most countries, the last generational crisis war was World War II.
But that's not true for all countries. Many countries were relatively
untouched by WW II, and had crisis wars at other times.
Many African nations (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, etc.)
had crisis wars in the 1950s-60s related to their individual wars of
independence from colonialism. Some non-African countries
(Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Bangladesh) did as well. Many Middle
Eastern countries had a generational crisis during the World War I
time period, and then cycled into a new crisis war in the 1970s-90s
(Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan). Some countries
(Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey, Russia) haven't had
generational crisis wars for a very long time, and studying those has
produced significant discoveries about suicide bombers and terrorists.
The most recent generational crisis wars were in Central African
Republic, Darfur (Sudan) and Sri Lanka.
Writing about these nations has provided a wealth of opportunities to
make comparisons. For example, both America in the 1960s and Iran in
the 2000s were in their respective generational Awakening eras. By
doing detailed social and political analyses, one can find
similarities (student demonstrations, anti-government protests, a
social "generation gap" between survivors of the war and those growing
up afterwards) and differences (occasional low-level violence versus
major violent government crackdowns, using torture, rapes, beatings
and arbitrary jailing). Where differences exist, it's not in kind,
but in intensity.
During my research in the past 15 years, I've done many tens of
thousands of such analyses and comparative analyses, systematically
comparing and contrasting social and political behaviors of different
countries at different times in history and during similar or
different generational eras. Of these, I've written thousands of
articles about them, and documented conclusions. Starting in 2010, I
began writing an article every day, and I've written thousands of
article since them. This has allowed me to thoroughly document
generational theory research and how it is applied to hundreds of
countries over many centuries, with the result that, in many ways,
development of generational theory is now near-completed and
empirically proved.
However, there's been a problem. Each time I write about a country, I
have to say the same things over and over, with only the details
changed. So, for example, when I write about Cambodia, I talk about
the 1970s Killing Fields genocide, how it's affected Cambodian society
since then, through Recovery and Awakening generational eras in a
predictable way. So when prime minister Hun Sen commits each horrific
new atrocity, the only real difference between one article and the
next is the nature of the new atrocity. The core generational
analysis of Cambodia remains the same. This has gotten really boring
to write over and over and also boring to read, and of course I don't
get paid for these articles, and so it's hard to see anymore what the
point is of writing boring unpaid articles every day under those
circumstances.
<QUOTE>"What do people gain from all their labors at which
they toil under the sun? Generations come and generations go, but
the earth remains forever.
The sun rises and the sun sets, and hurries back to where it
rises. The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round
and round it goes, ever returning on its course. All streams flow
into the sea, yet the sea is never full. To the place the streams
come from, there they return again. All things are wearisome,
more than one can say. The eye never has enough of seeing, nor
the ear its fill of hearing.
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done
again; there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something
new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time.
No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet to
come will not be remembered by those who follow
them. -- Ecclesiastes I."<END QUOTE>
On the other hand, the book that I wrote on Iran last year was a very
interesting project, and is the best book available today for those
who wish to understand Iran, the history of Islam, and the nature of
the Sunni-Shia split.
Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East.
I'm now working on a great book on China which is also a very
interesting project, and the best use of my time right now is to
complete that book, as well as possibly one more. We're headed to a
world war with China, possibly very soon, and I've already done a
great deal of historical research on China to determine why China's
leadership is so paranoid, barbaric and incompetent, how they've
completely lost their own Mandate from Heaven, why China's
hard-working citizens tolerate these worthless barbarians, and what
sequence of events is likely to occur in the next few months.
So I'm suspending the daily World View articles, but I'll still write
occasional articles every few days, when a news event occurs that I
would find interesting to analyze. Hopefully, these less frequent
articles will be more interesting to read, as well. I might also post
brief items on the Generational Dynamics forum. We'll experiment and
see what happens and how this works out.
I know that not having me around every day will be a cause for
celebration among Russian trolls and Bashar al-Assad acolytes, and I
hope you enjoy your champagne. For everybody else, thank you for
reading my articles, and I welcome questions and comments through my
GenerationalDynamics.com web site or the Generational Dynamics forum.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Japan, radar lock,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Ecclesiastes, Iran, China
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate
- Suspension of daily World View articles
- Generational Dynamics development of generational theory
****
**** South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate
****
Japanese patrol plane launches anti-missile flares during a fleet review in 2015 (AFP)
According to Japan, on December 20 a South Korean warship locked its
fire-control radar onto a Japanese patrol plane, as if preparing to
shoot it down. Japan made a formal protest to South Korea, claiming
that it was a "hostile act."
South Korea says that it was a maritime search and rescue operation,
with naval forces and supporting coast guard vessels, and that any
radar that was used was only ship-to-ship between Korean vessels.
Japan rejected this explanation.
South Korea then demanded that Tokyo offer a "smoking gun" -- its
analysis of radar frequency data to verify whether the destroyer sent
the warplane any signals from its tracking radar. Tokyo rejected the
call, saying it won't offer sensitive information on its "operational
capabilities."
Then, on December 28, Japan released a 13-minute video of the interior
of the patrol plane at the time of the incident, where a crew member
remarked on the plane’s systems picking up an “extremely strong”
reading.
South Korea then became more aggressive, urging Japan to apologize for
the patrol plane's low-altitude flight, which was "threatening" to the
South Korean warship, and criticized Tokyo's "unilateral,
misguided" claims. South Korea then released its own video,
saying that it refutes Tokyo's arguments.
Now, on Saturday, Japan indicated that on Sunday it might release an
audio recording of its crew at the time of the incident. South Korea
is accusing Japan of planning to use it to "distort the facts" and
release "incorrect" information.
Memories of World War II are still very raw between the two
countries, and now that the WW II survivors are gone, younger
generations are seeking revenge. Japan colonized Korea
from 1905 to 1945, and used Koreans as "comfort women" during
the war.
In 2015, Japan and Korea concluded a bilateral agreement which was
intended at the time as the “final and irreversible” resolution of the
comfort women issue. However, South Korea is now demanding that issue
be reopened.
Another issue is that, last year, because of the "charm offensive"
between North and South Korea, South Korea's military canceled the
purchase of a number of weapons whose purpose was to defend against a
North Korean invasion of Seoul. The Japanese view this as an
opportunity to redirect those funds towards weapons systems that can
be used against the Japanese.
The "radar lock" issue started out looking like something really
trivial, but as time has passed, tensions on both sides have rapidly
escalated, and the probability that the controversy or some other
misunderstanding could lead to a wider conflict is increasing.
Japan Times and Yonhap (Seoul, 1-Jan) and Diplomat (12-Jan) and Defense News (17-May-2018)
Related Articles:
- Japan-Korea relations worsen over 'comfort women' issue (17-Dec-2018)
- China funds unauthorized anti-Japan comfort woman statue in Manila, Philippines (28-Dec-2017)
- Japan and China in confrontation over comfort women (07-Mar-2007)
- China and Japan really DO hate each other (30-Aug-2013)
****
**** Suspension of daily World View articles
****
I'm suspending daily World View articles because most of the work on
generational theory has been completed, and because the best use of my
time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China.
Since 2003, I've posted over 6,000 articles on my web site, all of
them well-sourced through multiple sources, and non-ideological.
There is no "fake news" in any of them.
These articles contain thousands of generational analyses and
predictions of over 100 countries. All of these analyses and
predictions are true or are trending true. None has turned out to be
wrong.
My work in the last ten years has been groundbreaking, on the behavior
of how a country acts in the decades after a major civil war, a
generational crisis civil war. This is a breakthrough on analyzing
and predicting the behavior of the population, the generations, and
the politicians, and showing how these nations all act pretty much the
same as each other, though differently from countries after a major
external war (invading or being invaded).
Generational Dynamics now provides the tools to government officials,
historians, journalists, and geopolitical analysts -- if they want to
use them -- to correctly analyze what's happening in the world, what
will happen next, and what the likely outcome is of different policy
decisions. No other analytical tools, besides Generational Dynamics,
have ever provided successful predictions at this level of accuracy
and usefulness.
****
**** Generational Dynamics development of generational theory
****
For most countries, the last generational crisis war was World War II.
But that's not true for all countries. Many countries were relatively
untouched by WW II, and had crisis wars at other times.
Many African nations (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, etc.)
had crisis wars in the 1950s-60s related to their individual wars of
independence from colonialism. Some non-African countries
(Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Bangladesh) did as well. Many Middle
Eastern countries had a generational crisis during the World War I
time period, and then cycled into a new crisis war in the 1970s-90s
(Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan). Some countries
(Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey, Russia) haven't had
generational crisis wars for a very long time, and studying those has
produced significant discoveries about suicide bombers and terrorists.
The most recent generational crisis wars were in Central African
Republic, Darfur (Sudan) and Sri Lanka.
Writing about these nations has provided a wealth of opportunities to
make comparisons. For example, both America in the 1960s and Iran in
the 2000s were in their respective generational Awakening eras. By
doing detailed social and political analyses, one can find
similarities (student demonstrations, anti-government protests, a
social "generation gap" between survivors of the war and those growing
up afterwards) and differences (occasional low-level violence versus
major violent government crackdowns, using torture, rapes, beatings
and arbitrary jailing). Where differences exist, it's not in kind,
but in intensity.
During my research in the past 15 years, I've done many tens of
thousands of such analyses and comparative analyses, systematically
comparing and contrasting social and political behaviors of different
countries at different times in history and during similar or
different generational eras. Of these, I've written thousands of
articles about them, and documented conclusions. Starting in 2010, I
began writing an article every day, and I've written thousands of
article since them. This has allowed me to thoroughly document
generational theory research and how it is applied to hundreds of
countries over many centuries, with the result that, in many ways,
development of generational theory is now near-completed and
empirically proved.
However, there's been a problem. Each time I write about a country, I
have to say the same things over and over, with only the details
changed. So, for example, when I write about Cambodia, I talk about
the 1970s Killing Fields genocide, how it's affected Cambodian society
since then, through Recovery and Awakening generational eras in a
predictable way. So when prime minister Hun Sen commits each horrific
new atrocity, the only real difference between one article and the
next is the nature of the new atrocity. The core generational
analysis of Cambodia remains the same. This has gotten really boring
to write over and over and also boring to read, and of course I don't
get paid for these articles, and so it's hard to see anymore what the
point is of writing boring unpaid articles every day under those
circumstances.
<QUOTE>"What do people gain from all their labors at which
they toil under the sun? Generations come and generations go, but
the earth remains forever.
The sun rises and the sun sets, and hurries back to where it
rises. The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round
and round it goes, ever returning on its course. All streams flow
into the sea, yet the sea is never full. To the place the streams
come from, there they return again. All things are wearisome,
more than one can say. The eye never has enough of seeing, nor
the ear its fill of hearing.
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done
again; there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something
new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time.
No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet to
come will not be remembered by those who follow
them. -- Ecclesiastes I."<END QUOTE>
On the other hand, the book that I wrote on Iran last year was a very
interesting project, and is the best book available today for those
who wish to understand Iran, the history of Islam, and the nature of
the Sunni-Shia split.
Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East.
I'm now working on a great book on China which is also a very
interesting project, and the best use of my time right now is to
complete that book, as well as possibly one more. We're headed to a
world war with China, possibly very soon, and I've already done a
great deal of historical research on China to determine why China's
leadership is so paranoid, barbaric and incompetent, how they've
completely lost their own Mandate from Heaven, why China's
hard-working citizens tolerate these worthless barbarians, and what
sequence of events is likely to occur in the next few months.
So I'm suspending the daily World View articles, but I'll still write
occasional articles every few days, when a news event occurs that I
would find interesting to analyze. Hopefully, these less frequent
articles will be more interesting to read, as well. I might also post
brief items on the Generational Dynamics forum. We'll experiment and
see what happens and how this works out.
I know that not having me around every day will be a cause for
celebration among Russian trolls and Bashar al-Assad acolytes, and I
hope you enjoy your champagne. For everybody else, thank you for
reading my articles, and I welcome questions and comments through my
GenerationalDynamics.com web site or the Generational Dynamics forum.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Japan, radar lock,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Ecclesiastes, Iran, China
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
