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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 14-Feb-19 World View -- India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran
  • Effects of 1979 Islamic Revolution on the Mideast and the world
  • Iran and India vs Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China
  • Massive terror attack on Iran's IRGC
  • Coming soon: World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis

****
**** India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran
****


The following articles appeared on Wednesday in India's Open Magazine:

[Image: irbk300.jpg]
World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy, by John J. Xenakis

Available on Amazon

13 February 2019

The West gets constantly surprised by Iran because of their universal
stupidity, says John J Xenakis

On the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, an American scholar
talks about its impact on world politics

by John J Xenakis

<QUOTE>"John J. Xenakis juggles multiple careers: that of a
software engineer, historian, journalist, analyst and author. The
American scholar, who has developed what he calls the
“generational theory” to forecast the future of countries and
people, is the author of World View: Iran’s struggle for
Supremacy. As Iran celebrates the 40th anniversary of the 1979
Islamic Revolution this month, Xenakis delves deep into the legacy
of its spearhead Ayatollah Khomeini and how the historical event
changed the course of world history. He argues that it is a pity
that most journalists and politicians don’t have even “the vaguest
clue of what's going on Iran”. He also talks about other countries
in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia which is fighting a
proxy war with Iran in many parts of the region. Edited excerpts
from an interview with Executive Editor Ullekh NP"<END QUOTE>


****
**** Effects of 1979 Islamic Revolution on the Mideast and the world
****


Looking back, how has the Islamic Revolution of 40 years ago
altered the history of the Middle East and the rest of the
world?


There were three events that occurred in 1979 that set the direction
of the Mideast. The Islamic Revolution changed Iran from a Western
ally to a Western enemy, and radicalized the Mideast. The Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan, which was an invasion of a Muslim nation by a
Christian nation, further radicalized the Mideast and Pakistan. And
the Salafist attack on Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque was the first major
terrorist attack in recent times. It led to Osama bin Laden and his
band of jihadists to leave Saudi Arabia and go to Afghanistan to fight
the Russians. These events can be traced directly to the Iran-Iraq war
and to the 9/11 terror attack.

What are your thoughts on Ayatollah Khomeini's legacy?

Ruhollah Khomeini's greatest sin is that he corrupted Islam by
twisting it into a policy called Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the
Jurist) which turned himself into an "infallible" Supreme Leader who
could order the arrests, torture, rape, beatings, and executions of
political opponents with impunity. Furthermore, he devised a
constitution with absolutely no checks and balances, which makes Iran
a kleptocracy, unable to get anything done except with bribery and
extortion. Khomeini was truly evil. He has fouled Islam and destroyed
Iran.

Many famous intelligence officials and news correspondents who
have worked in Iran have opined that they had underestimated the
inherent strengths of that country to survive insurmountable
odds. What do you think?


Dictators always survive in a police state, where political opponents
can be arrested, tortured, raped, beaten, and executed at will with
impunity. What you call "inherent strength" is the ability to use
violence to control the opposition.

A lot of people talk about "regime change" in Iran, without having any
idea what that means. If all it means replacing one Supreme Leader by
another, it will make no difference at all. The problem is that the
constitution and entire government are a kleptocracy, where it's
impossible to survive without bribery, corruption and violence.

However, generational theory tells us that an important change is
coming. The fanatical hardliners in Iran are in the generations that
lived through and fought in the 1979 Revolution, and those people are
quickly disappearing. The younger generations, who grew up after the
1979 Revolution, have no such fanaticism. In fact, they're generally
pro-American, pro-Western, and have no particular interest in seeing
Israel pushed into the sea. These younger generations are increasingly
in power, and they will dramatically change Iran's politics. Some
opposition figures are even suggesting that the son of the deceased
Shah could come back and restore a secular government.

Do you think that Iran has been villainized over the past 40
years because it took on the might of the US and threw an American
stooge out of power? How justified are the West's sanctions on that
country?


Iran is a country that abducted American ambassadors, and declares
"death to America" and "death to Israel" every single day. They're
corrupt, violent terrorists, and they're spreading terror throughout
the Mideast in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen. Of course,
they're going to be villanized, and they deserve it.

Just as Hindus in India feel an emotional link with Shia Muslims
in Iran, and tend to excuse Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical
Christians in America feel a close emotional link to Jews in
Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins

****
**** Iran and India vs Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China
****


Isn’t it Saudi Arabia, a friend of the US, that is the
fountainhead of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East (we feel the
pressure in India as well because Islamism in India is also funded by
the Saudis)? Why do you insist it is Iran? Besides, Israel isn't a
saint after all and has earned the wrath of UNHCR on many occasions
for its treatment of Palestinian civilians. It is a country whose
economic mainstay is arms and its government has been accused of
terrorism by religious groups within. Your comments.


Saudi Arabia is "A fountainhead," not "THE fountainhead." In Yemen, SA
is in a never-ending proxy war with Iran, in Syria SA is supporting
many anti-Assad rebels. The Jamal Khashoggi incident has shocked
everyone, and has had the ironic effect of pushing SA closer to
Pakistan. Many people also blame SA for 9/11. SA itself has an
internal split between the Sauds and the Wahhabis. At any rate, Saudi
Arabia and Iran are headed for war.

Many in the US Congress do not consider SA to be a friend. Obama hated
SA, and SA hated Obama. SA and US have had a close relationship since
the 1930s based on the following core agreement: SA will provide oil
to the world, and the US will provide security to the Mideast. Trump's
"friendship" with SA is based on that core agreement. This core
agreement greatly benefits everyone, including India. There have been
many problems in the SA-US relationship over the decades, but this
core agreement has remained the most important factor.

And if I'm not mistaken, most of the funding for Islamism in India
comes not from the Saudis but from Pakistan's ISI. However, that may
be a distinction without a difference because Pakistan is a close ally
of SA and China, both of whom are enemies of India. India, on the
other hand, is a close ally of Iran, as illustrated by the Chabahar
seaport project. Hindus and Shia Muslims have been allies for
centuries, all the way back to the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680. I
discussed this in my book.

Nobody's a saint, especially in the Mideast. Israel is a democracy and
has an independent judiciary, which makes them unique in the Mideast.
Muslim Arabs are much safer living in Israel, and have more freedoms,
than in any other Mideast country. Just as Hindus in India feel a
close emotional link with Shia Muslims in Iran, and tend to excuse
Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical Christians in America feel a close
emotional link to Jews in Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins.

There's also anti-Jewish sentiment in the US -- read the current news
stories about Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, who is the Somali Muslim
congressional representative from Minneapolis, which has a large
Somali community.

Many in the US consider UNHCR to be highly biased, condemning actions
in Israel while ignoring massively greater human rights violations by
others.

Did the 1979 Revolution intensify the Shia-Sunni conflict and
how?


By changing from a secular government to a radical Shia government,
they radicalized the Wahhabi Sunni extremists and other jihadists.

What are the untold stories of the Islamic Revolution? Why did
Saddam Hussein spare Khomeini while the latter was in exile in Iraq?
How come he became a darling of the international media overnight in
France? Were there more to these developments than meets the
eye?


These are all political developments that were not nearly as important
as the three major events in 1979 that I listed above.

Iran is still a power that continues to surprise the West. Do
you think there are chances that it will become a nuclear power
soon?


Well, I was surprised myself when I did research for my book and
discovered that no analysts, journalists or politicians have even the
vaguest clue what's going on Iran, as judged by the fact that they say
one incredibly stupid thing after another every day. That's why they
keep getting surprised -- because of their universal stupidity.

Will it be a nuclear power soon? They're undoubtedly continuing some
nuclear development, and/or buying nuclear technology from North
Korea. Even under the Iran nuclear treaty, they're permitted to
develop nuclear weapons by 2025, and they're certainly planning to do
so.

How important is it to understand Iran in order to understand
political Islam?


I don't even know what this means, since no one wants to bother to
understand political Islam or Islam at any level. However, someone who
wants to understand Iran and Islam can start by reading my book, which
has the best and most accessible exposition of both that I've seen.

Who are your favourite historians who have written extensively
on Iran?


The best was Homa Katouzian. In my book, I showed how generational
changes led to the historical flow Russia/Britain-Iran border wars ->
Tobacco Revolt -> Constitutional Revolution -> White Revolution
protests -> Islamic Revolution. Most historians discussed these as
individual, almost unrelated events. Katouzian was the only one who
understood how one leads to the next.

Open Magazine (India)


****
**** Massive terror attack on Iran's IRGC
****


On the same day that the above article was published, there was a
massive terror attack in southeastern Iran, targeting a bus carrying
members of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Supreme
Leader's security forces that conduct the most vicious atrocities
against any peaceful protester or anyone who says something not
approved by the dictatorial government.

A suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives targeted the bus,
causing a massive explosion. Official government figures put the
number of dead at 20, although other reports say that as many as 41
IRGC members were killed. Dozens more were injured. The attack took
place in Sistan-Baluchistan province, near the border with Pakistan.

The Sunni terrorist group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), which says
it wants greater rights for the ethnic minority Baluchis, took credit
for the attack. This group was formed in 2012 as an offshoot of the
al-Qaeda linked Jundallah, which is in the Pakistan Taliban.

Both Jundullah (Soldiers of God) and Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice)
have stated openly that they're committed to the extermination of all
Shia Muslims. Jundullah itself was an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
(LeJ) which in 2013 issued the following statement:

<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
city, every village, every nook and corner of
Pakistan."<END QUOTE>


In 2010, Iran captured and executed Jundullah's leader Abdulmalik
Rigi, and declared that the defeat of Jundullah. But Jundullah
reconstituted itself with new leadership, and stepped up the attacks
on Iran, claiming revenge for the execution of Rigi.

Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl are offshoots that have extended the
extermination plan from Pakistan across the border into Iran's
Sistan-Baluchistan province. On January 29, a bomb explored in the
provincial capital Zahedan, and three members of a bomb squad were
wounded when a second device blew up. There have been dozens of such
attacks in recent years, killing hundreds of people.

Two people were killed and about 40 wounded in the port city of
Chabahar early December. The Chabahar port project is an important
part of the strategic relationship between Iran and India, as I
mentioned in the Open Magazine article quoted above. For that reason,
it's possible that Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl attacks on
Sistan-Baluchistan province are also intended to be an attack on
Indian assets.

For Wednesday's attack, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
declared that the blame goes to the United States because of a Mideast
summit being held in Poland. Zarif tweeted:

<QUOTE>"Is it no coincidence that Iran is hit by terror on
the very day that #WarsawCircus begins? Especially when cohorts
of same terrorists cheer it from Warsaw streets & support it with
twitter bots? US seems to always make the same wrong choices, but
expect different results."<END QUOTE>


A Foreign Ministry spokesman added, "The self-sacrificing military and
intelligence children of the people of Iran will take revenge for the
blood of the martyrs of this incident."

I've been writing about Jundullah's terror attacks on Iran for almost
ten years, and even though the attacks are being conducted by a group
vowing to exterminate all Shia Muslims, Iranian officials always find
a way to make delusional statements blaming the attacks on the US.
Press TV (Iran) and Radio Farda and Guardian (London) and Reuters

Related Articles:

****
**** Coming soon: World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis
****


A new book, World View: The Conflict between China and Japan,
by John J. Xenakis in the Generational Theory Series, will
be published soon.

The topics include:
  • History of China - Korea - Japan relationships.

  • Why China does NOT want war with the United States.

  • However, why China DOES want a revenge war with Japan, even though
    it would also mean war with the United States.

  • How China's society today is mimicking Japan's society of the
    1930s -- the same crimes, the same atrocities, the same barbarism, and
    the same preparations for war.

  • History of 5,000 years of China's dynasties and their influence
    today.

  • History of Confucius and Sun Tzu's Art of War, and their influence
    today.

  • China's continuing preparations for war.

As the book is being completed, there's an active discussion
going on in the Generational Dynamics forum about it's contents,
as well as book excerpts and other World View stories.

If you'd like to follow the discussion, or even contribute
your own thoughts and comments, do any of the following:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Open Magazine, Ullekh NP,
Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Wilayat al-Faqih, Guardianship of the Jurist,
Hindus, Jews, Evangelical Christians, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Jamal Khashoggi,
Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden, Soviet Russia,
Pakistan, China, Chabahar seaport, Homa Katouzian,
Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
Sistan-Baluchistan, Abdulmalik Rigi,
Jundullah, Soldiers of God, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice,
China, Japan, Korea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
14-Feb-19 World View -- India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by - by John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2019, 10:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
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