Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan conflict escalates with warplane clash

For the first time since 1971, Pakistani and Indian warplanes have
clashed, resulting in at least one plane being shot down. Pakistan’s
Civil Aviation Authority says it has shut its airspace across the
country to all commercial flights, resulting in numerous flight
cancelations and inconveniencing passenges.


Kashmir continues to be the most dangerous place in the world today,
and the place where the probability of tit-for-tat escalation leading
to a major war is highest, at the current point in time.

• Border wall: Indian Border Security Force soldiers patrol
  along the fenced border with Pakistan in the Ranbir Singh Pura sector
  near Jammu on Tuesday. (Mukesh Gupta/Reuters)

As we've been reporting for weeks, the current round of tit-for-tat
attacks began on February 14, when the Pakistan-based terrorist group
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) claimed credit for the worst terror attack in
Indian-controlled Kashmir in decades, occurring on February 14. Over
40 Indian security forces were killed when an explosive-laden vehicle
(VBIED) crashed into bus in a convoy of Indian forces and exploded.
This was the worst terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

Then on Tuesday (26-Feb), Indian warplanes struck across the Line of
Control (LoC) into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir. This
was the first Indian warplane strike inside Pakistan since the massive
1971 India-Pakistan war.

There's still some confusion about what was actually struck, with
India claiming that hundreds of JeM militants were killed in their
training camp, while Pakistan says there were no casualties, and that
the attack was "reckless and fictitious." Pakistan vowed to retaliate
at a place and time of its choosing.

On Wednesday, there was an actual clash between Indian and Pakistani
warplanes, for the first time since 1971. Both sides claimed to have
shot down enemy warplanes, but the only thing that's been confirmed is
that an Indian warplane was shot down, and the pilot is in custody in
Pakistan.

However, the details of who was shot down, though important, are not
nearly as important as the fact that the situation appears to be
escalating, almost on a daily basis.

According to a retired Indian diplomat Lalit Mansingh, India’s policy
of strategic restraint “is no longer.” Pakistan continues to say that
it will retaliate.

This is a good time to remind readers of the Marco Polo Bridge
incident that started World War II in 1937. The Marco Polo Bridge is
about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco
Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century.

• A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took
  a roll call and found one soldier missing.
  
  
• The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the
  bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A
  brief clash was won by the Japanese.
  
  
• The two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides brought in
  reinforcements.
  
  
• Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese
  "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier
missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his
way back.

So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered because
someone unexpectedly had to pee. And it's not so far-fetched to
wonder if the situation in Kashmir will lead to World War III.



--- India, Pakistan down each other's jets as Kashmir conflict heats
up
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-...QG0IQ?il=0
(Reuters)

--- Kashmir / Fears rise amid India-Pakistan escalation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-47383889
(BBC)

--- The Latest: Germany urges dialogue between India, Pakistan
https://www.apnews.com/726be65d13bb4c058cec1a4d9e2fa043
(AP)