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Generational Dynamics World View
** 13-Mar-2019 Russia-China relations run into problems again

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing an "honor among
thieves" relationship with China's Xi Jinping for several years, as
they support each other's illegal activities with vetoes in the UN
Security Council. Furthermore, under pressure from European
sanctions, Putin is anxious to showcase his relationship with Xi as a
counterweight.

However, China does much to show its disdain for the Russians. China
is posing a threat to Russia's Far East, and Russia has been shut out
of infrastructure projects in countries that are part of China's Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI).

In the last month a new division has opened up. China's embassy in
Moscow sent a message to a Russian journalist who had written articles
analyzing the slowdown in China's economy, and its consequences for
Russia. The articles had been posted on the web site for Nezavisimaya
Gazeta (NG), and in the message, the embassy ordered the journalist to
remove the articles from the website. The embassy message rebuked the
growing discontent in Russian society, which Putin has allegedly
failed to quell. The message threatened to blacklist the journalist
and prevent him from visiting China.

Although NG is not an official Russian government publication, it's
presumably aligned with Russian policy, and its response presumably
had the permission of the Russian government.

In response, NG published an editorial:

Quote: "In Russia, many consider the current cooperation with
Beijing as a continuation of the golden period of the
Soviet-Chinese friendship of the middle of the last
century. However, in reality, not all Chinese officials today
respect Russian laws and regard Russians as equal partners. Among
Chinese officials, there are those who consider it permissible to
ponder the Russians, threaten us and openly show disrespect for
Russian laws.

Someone in the Russian Federation may consider such an attitude of
the Chinese towards us as evil slander or fiction. Until recently,
Nezavisimaya Gazeta employees also thought so. Until they
themselves were faced with the unprecedented interference of the
Chinese Embassy in the work of the NG editorial board.

Recently, Chinese embassy officials have openly demanded that
materials based on open statistical data, including state Chinese
statistics, be removed from publication. At the same time,
diplomats are very non-diplomatic about the president of the
Russian Federation, about the potential of Russia, and even openly
threaten NG employees with certain blacklists."

The editorial went on to accuse the Chinese embassy of violating
Russian laws.

This is a "small incident," and may pass quickly. But maybe not. NG
has published additional articles on China's economy, and now that
it's been threatened, it may publish more. China, on the other hand,
becomes furious when one of its tributary states does not obey orders,
so the Chinese may escalate the punishment.

Ultimately, this is not about a confrontation between a reporter and
the Chinese embassy. It's about the relationship between Putin and
Xi. Putin has been sucking up the Xi, and may do so again by ordering
NG to back off. Or may Putin would like to show that he's able to
stand up to China, and will allow the confrontation to continue.

The Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.

China and Russia developed a close relationship in the 1920s. After
Germany lost World War I, China demanded that Western nations,
especially Germany, relinquish all Chinese territories they had gained
under "unequal treaties," and in fact demanded that the unequal
treaties be annulled. Instead, under the "Versailles betrayal" at the
Paris peace conference that settled World War I, Japan received
control of some of the German territories (Shandong province) under
the "fine print" of the unequal treaties. Neither China nor the
United States signed the Versailles agreement, and the US helped China
take Shandong province back from Japan two years later.

However, what was most significant to the Chinese was that in March
1919, while negotiations were still ongoing, Soviet Russia renounced
Russian rights and privileges to all the capitulations that had been
awarded to countries from China. This created a very favorable
attitude among the Chinese people towards the new Soviet State.
Furthermore, Chinese intellectuals began to see communism as a weapon
-- a weapon to combat militarism and imperialism of the West.

The Third Communist International (The Comintern) was formed by Russia
in March 1919 in order to control all communist parties around the
world, and did so until Stalin dissolved in in May 1943, and
transferred its activities to other organizations. The Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) was formed in 1921, and became a member of the
Moscow Comintern.

In the decades that followed, tensions grew in China between the
Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communists, led by Mao
Zedong. When the Communists won the civil war and announced the
Communist People's Republic of China in 1949, it was the beginning of
a "golden age" of friendship between China and Soviet Russia.

The golden age didn't last long. The Amur River that forms part of
the border between China and Russia's Far East has been the site of
wars between the two people for centuries. On March 2, 1969, border
units of the Soviet Union and China clashed on Damansky Island, in the
middle of the Amur River. Militarily, the Damansky Incident was a
small operation, but symbolically and politically it's been extremely
important. The fighting generated worldwide concern, over fears that
China and Russia would escalate the fight into nuclear war. The
United States sided with China in the clash, causing China to have
much more favorable relations with the US. In fact, this incident is
thought to be the trigger that led to President Richard Nixon and
Henry Kissinger successfully developing diplomatic relations with
China in 1971.

The biggest shock to China-Russia relations occurred in 1991, when the
Soviet Union collapsed, along with the Russian Communist Party. Since
the CCP had modeled itself after the Russian party, this was a blow
that sent the CCP officials into total panic, and has led to the
paranoia and the destructive and self-destructive policies of the CCP
being practiced today.

This is the context in which the clash between Nezavisimaya Gazeta
(NG) and China's Moscow embassy is occurring. Whether this clash
escalates depends on how much Putin and Xi wish to continue pretending
that they like each other.

Generational Dynamics predicts that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the US, Japan, India, Russia, Iran and the
West will be pitted against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim
countries.

--- Sources:

-- 'Serious' rivalry still drives China-Russia relations despite
improving ties
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/china-ru...aince.html
(CNBC, 14-Sep-2018)


-- Hidden Animus in the Russia-China Friendship
https://jamestown.org/program/hidden-ani...riendship/
(Jamestown)

-- Russia / Chinese diplomat threatens NG journalist with blacklisting
http://www.ng.ru/world/2019-03-04/2_7523_china.html
https://translate.google.com/translate?s...china.html
(Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG), and translation)


-- China is preparing for hard times
http://www.ng.ru/economics/2019-03-05/1_7524_china.html
https://translate.google.com/translate?s...china.html
(Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG), and translation)


--- Related:

** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181023




** 21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180721




** 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180331




** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170127
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 03-13-2019, 05:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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