04-09-2019, 06:13 PM
** 09-Apr-2019 World View: Tensions growing rapidly in the South China Sea
During the last few weeks, tensions have been growing rapidly
in the South China Sea:
This comes as China has been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
and militarily hostile and threatening in the South China Sea in the
last few years, especially after it was humiliated by a tribunal at
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in
2016. The ruling said that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea were illegal. This ruling was apparently a
turning point for China, as China's policies became more openly
militarily hostile and belligerent.
On September 25, 2015, blatantly lied to the face of Barack Obama
during a joint press conference on the White House lawn about China's
intentions, saying that the South China Sea would never be
militarized. After the Tribunal ruling, China became much more
blatantly open about its criminal acritivies in the South China Sea.
On September 30, 2018, the USS Decatur was conducting a "freedom
of navigation operation" (FONOP) in the South China Sea.
A Chinese navy destroyer Lanzhou drove within
forty-five yards of the USS Decatur as it crossed the bow of the
American warship near Gaven Reef. The Decatur’s commander
averted collision only by deftly swerving to escape the Lanzhou’s
aggressive maneuverings.
Reports in Chinese media indicate that officers in China's military
are calling for military action in the South China Sea in 2019.
At a conference on December 8, 2018, Chinese Air Force Colonel
Commandant Dai Xu referred to the US FONOPs:
Once again, it's worth pointing out that Dai Wu is completely
full of crap claiming them as China's territorial waters.
In a speech on December 20, 2018, Rear Admiral Luo Yuan, the deputy
head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences said called for the
sinking of two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers to “frighten” the U.S. away
from the SC He said that the key for Chinese domination of the SCS
lies in using ballistic missiles to sink the two carriers, killing as
many American sailors as possible. He said the loss of one super
carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and
women. Sinking two would double that toll.
I'm seen other remarks from Chinese officials intimating that America
would be too frightened to fight China, or would be so afraid of
casualties that it would refuse to fight.
This is so completely delusional that it's almost impossible
to believe. And yet I know from history that this kind
of delusional, nationalistic, xenophobic attitude is common
just before a generational crisis war.
World War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke. World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident,
when a Japanese soldier had to pee, and his absence led to a military
confrontation between the Japanese and Chinese. In these and other
cases, a "small incident" leads to a small military confrontation,
which leads to a larger military confrontation, which leads to
full-scale war within 2-3 months.
This is the difference between the 1990s and today. In the 1990s, the
world was being run by World War II survivors, and they knew how to
compromise and make peace. Today, the world is being run by Gen-Xers,
who have no idea how to compromise, have no desire to make peace, and
believe that the other side will easily be scared off.
China is "swarming" the South China Sea with hundreds, perhaps
thousands, of fishing vessels and warships. Chinese military
officials are encouraging China's navy to confront US FONOPs ships,
with everything from ramming to missiles.
This makes plenty of room for a "small incident" which, in
today's nationalistic, xenophobic world, could easily lead
to full scale war within a few weeks.
--- Sources:
-- Russian warships arrive in the Philippines amid rising South China
Sea tensions
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/08/asia/russ...index.html
(CNN)
-- Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth,
not more politics
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/a...-teeth-not
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)
-- U.S. sails massive, F-35-laden warship in disputed South China Sea
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/0...KyYVaQpB_A
(Japan Times)
-- China vs. America: How a War in the South China Sea Could Start
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/c...tart-51387
(National interest)
-- Senior Chinese military official urges PLAN to attack US naval
vessels in S. China Sea
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3592985
(Taiwan News, 9-Dec-2018)
-- Dai Xu / Chinese senior military official calls for attacks on US
ships in South China Sea
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/12...china-sea/
(AmericanMilitaryTimes, 11-Dec-2018)
-- Dai Xu / Chinese military official: ‘We should be ready to take
over Taiwan’
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...1edbce63ee
(News.com, Australia, 11-Dec-2018)
-- China-US relations heading toward uncharted waters dominate Global
Times annual conference
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1131036.shtml
(GlobalTimes, 9-Dec-2018)
-- ‘Sink two aircraft carriers’: Chinese Admiral’s chilling recipe to
dominate the South China Sea
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...791aa26e0f
(News.com, Australia, 9-Jan-2019)
During the last few weeks, tensions have been growing rapidly
in the South China Sea:
- There's Duterte's threat of a "suicide mission," described
in the previous article.
- A fleet of warships from Russia docked in the port of Manila, the
Philippines, early on Monday. There were two destroyers Admiral
Tributs and Vinogradov, classified as "large, anti-submarine ships,"
and the Admiral Irkut, described as a "large sea tanker.
This is the second such visit this year, the last one in January. In
July, the two countries are due to sign a naval cooperation agreement.
There's a certain irony to this, since both Russia and the Philippines
are historical enemies of China, but in both cases the country
has been in a "marriage of convenience" with China in recent years.
However, both countries are expected to be allies of the US and
the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
- Vietnam has complained about incidents involving China’s repeated
harassment of Vietnam’s oil and gas operations in its exclusive
economic zone (EEZ), and China’s various violent attacks against
Vietnamese fishermen, especially in the waters around the disputed
Paracels. China's navy has attacked and sank Vietnamese ships.
- Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA (China's military) to be ready to
invade Taiwan by 2020. Taking exclusive control of the South China
Sea would be additional preparation for the attack by the Chinese
invasion force.
- There are reports that the USS Wasp amphibious assault ship has
been sailing near Scarborough Shoal, which is being illegally claimed
by China. The reports said that warplanes have been seen landing and
taking off from the ship.
China seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012 after an extended standoff with
the Philippines. China later effectively blockaded the lagoon, which
is rich in fish stocks, and routinely dispatches scores of fishing
vessels and government-backed “maritime militia” ships to the area to
continue its de facto blockade.
The Wasp was taking part in the annual Balikatan U.S.-Philippine
military training exercise “that focuses on maritime security and
amphibious capabilities, as well as multinational interoperability
through military exchanges," according to the US Marine Corps. The
Wasp has been paired with the U.S. Marines Corps’ cutting-edge F-35B
Lightning II stealth aircraft. The F-35B is the short takeoff and
vertical landing variant of the aircraft.
This comes as China has been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
and militarily hostile and threatening in the South China Sea in the
last few years, especially after it was humiliated by a tribunal at
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in
2016. The ruling said that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea were illegal. This ruling was apparently a
turning point for China, as China's policies became more openly
militarily hostile and belligerent.
On September 25, 2015, blatantly lied to the face of Barack Obama
during a joint press conference on the White House lawn about China's
intentions, saying that the South China Sea would never be
militarized. After the Tribunal ruling, China became much more
blatantly open about its criminal acritivies in the South China Sea.
On September 30, 2018, the USS Decatur was conducting a "freedom
of navigation operation" (FONOP) in the South China Sea.
A Chinese navy destroyer Lanzhou drove within
forty-five yards of the USS Decatur as it crossed the bow of the
American warship near Gaven Reef. The Decatur’s commander
averted collision only by deftly swerving to escape the Lanzhou’s
aggressive maneuverings.
Reports in Chinese media indicate that officers in China's military
are calling for military action in the South China Sea in 2019.
At a conference on December 8, 2018, Chinese Air Force Colonel
Commandant Dai Xu referred to the US FONOPs:
Quote: "If the U.S. warships break into Chinese waters again,
I suggest that two warships should be sent: one to stop it, and
another one to ram it. ... In our territorial waters, we won't
allow U.S. warships to create disturbance. ...
It would boost the speed of our unification of Taiwan… Let's just
be prepared and wait. Once a strategic opportunity emerges, we
should be ready to take over Taiwan."
Once again, it's worth pointing out that Dai Wu is completely
full of crap claiming them as China's territorial waters.
In a speech on December 20, 2018, Rear Admiral Luo Yuan, the deputy
head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences said called for the
sinking of two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers to “frighten” the U.S. away
from the SC He said that the key for Chinese domination of the SCS
lies in using ballistic missiles to sink the two carriers, killing as
many American sailors as possible. He said the loss of one super
carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and
women. Sinking two would double that toll.
Quote: "What the United States fears the most is taking
casualties. ... We’ll see how frightened America is."
I'm seen other remarks from Chinese officials intimating that America
would be too frightened to fight China, or would be so afraid of
casualties that it would refuse to fight.
This is so completely delusional that it's almost impossible
to believe. And yet I know from history that this kind
of delusional, nationalistic, xenophobic attitude is common
just before a generational crisis war.
World War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke. World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident,
when a Japanese soldier had to pee, and his absence led to a military
confrontation between the Japanese and Chinese. In these and other
cases, a "small incident" leads to a small military confrontation,
which leads to a larger military confrontation, which leads to
full-scale war within 2-3 months.
This is the difference between the 1990s and today. In the 1990s, the
world was being run by World War II survivors, and they knew how to
compromise and make peace. Today, the world is being run by Gen-Xers,
who have no idea how to compromise, have no desire to make peace, and
believe that the other side will easily be scared off.
China is "swarming" the South China Sea with hundreds, perhaps
thousands, of fishing vessels and warships. Chinese military
officials are encouraging China's navy to confront US FONOPs ships,
with everything from ramming to missiles.
This makes plenty of room for a "small incident" which, in
today's nationalistic, xenophobic world, could easily lead
to full scale war within a few weeks.
--- Sources:
-- Russian warships arrive in the Philippines amid rising South China
Sea tensions
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/08/asia/russ...index.html
(CNN)
-- Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth,
not more politics
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/a...-teeth-not
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)
-- U.S. sails massive, F-35-laden warship in disputed South China Sea
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/0...KyYVaQpB_A
(Japan Times)
-- China vs. America: How a War in the South China Sea Could Start
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/c...tart-51387
(National interest)
-- Senior Chinese military official urges PLAN to attack US naval
vessels in S. China Sea
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3592985
(Taiwan News, 9-Dec-2018)
-- Dai Xu / Chinese senior military official calls for attacks on US
ships in South China Sea
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/12...china-sea/
(AmericanMilitaryTimes, 11-Dec-2018)
-- Dai Xu / Chinese military official: ‘We should be ready to take
over Taiwan’
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...1edbce63ee
(News.com, Australia, 11-Dec-2018)
-- China-US relations heading toward uncharted waters dominate Global
Times annual conference
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1131036.shtml
(GlobalTimes, 9-Dec-2018)
-- ‘Sink two aircraft carriers’: Chinese Admiral’s chilling recipe to
dominate the South China Sea
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...791aa26e0f
(News.com, Australia, 9-Jan-2019)
