07-01-2016, 09:01 PM
*** 2-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme
****
![[Image: g160701b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160701b.jpg)
Tyne Cot War Cemetery, with graves of 11,954 soldiers in the British army (greatwar.co.uk)
The Battle of the Somme, possibly the worst botched battle in the
British army's history, began on July 1, 1916. The British wanted to
deliver a knockout blow to the German army. For over a week, the
British had fired some 1,738,000 artillery shells at the German line
in order to prepare for the British infantry advance. However, the
Germans were prepared for this. The German soldiers moved into deep
dugouts that had been prepared. When the bombardment stopped, the
Germans knew that was a signal that the infantry attack was about to
begin, so they left the dugout and moved to their machine guns. Some
100,000 British and French army soldiers went "over the top" to
confront the Germans and the machine guns along a 25-mile front. By
the end of the first day, the British army had lost 60,000 men.
By the end of 141 days of battle, in November 1916, the British had
lost 420,000, the French lost 200,000 men and the Germans 500,000, for
a total of almost 1.2 million casualties in this one battle. The
British army had not only not delivered a knockout blow, they had
moved their front line only seven miles.
The British Generals had botched the situation so badly that by the
1920s, many veterans were describing the entire war as "Lions led by
Donkeys."
On Friday, France's president François Hollande and Britain's prime
minister David Cameron met at the site of the battle to commemorate
the deaths, to give the usual speeches saying "Never again." This
commemoration comes just weeks after the commemoration of the Battle of Verdun.
The commemoration comes one week after the Brexit vote, mandating that
Britain should leave the European Union. The biggest motivation for
the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 and for the European Union, was
that the survivors of World War I and II wanted to guarantee that
Europe would never fight wars like the two world wars ever again. The
Brexit vote means that this guarantee will not be met.
Today, the survivors of the two world wars are gone, and so it's
particularly ironic that the commemoration comes at a time when the
European Union is falling apart, and the same nationalistic and
xenophobic forces that brought about the Battle of the Somme and other
battles are rising again. History Learning and Telegraph (London) and Deutsche Welle
****
**** The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality
****
![[Image: mortal1.gif]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/mortal1.gif)
Estimated infant mortality rates - 1870-1999 - in Chicago
There were 38 million military and civilian casualties in World War I,
including 11 million military personnel. The number of deaths was
astonishing, mainly because there had never been so many deaths in
previous wars.
Politicians discussing the Battle of the Somme this week blamed the
large number of deaths as "a failure of political leadership," and
pontificated that if the political leadership had been better, then
World War I would have had fewer deaths.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's very likely that
38 million people had to die, no matter how well the politicians ran
the war. In fact, asking why 38 million people died in World War I is
the wrong question. The right question is: Where did all those people
come from?
Prior to 1870, some 30% of all infants died before their first
birthday. (By age 5, the figure was about 50%.)
But infant and child mortality fell dramatically in the 1890s, and
again in the 1920s, as you can see from the graph. This fall in
infant mortality meant that a lot more infants lived long enough to
become soldiers. That's why there were so many more soldiers in WW I,
and then again in WW II. And that's why there were so many more
soldiers to be killed.
In other words, curing infant mortality is a wonderful thing for the
individual parents, but it has the unintended consequence of creating
large population of young boys ready to be sent into war as cannon
fodder.
When there are too many people, nature provides several ways to kill
them off -- war, disease, and famine. If those 38 million people
hadn't been killed by World War I, then they would have had to be
killed some other way. That's the way the world works.
Actually, that wasn't the end of it. The global Spanish Flu pandemic
of 1918 killed up to 50 million more people. Then 60 million more
people were killed in World War II. Hundreds of millions more were
killed by Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong in various Communist purges.
Today it's much worse. There are 200,000 people added to the global
population every day. At the same time, growing populations are
displacing more and more farmland. There is no way that this
situation is sustainable, or will end well, and Brexit is just one
thing that's leading the way. The Battle of the Somme was just a
minor blip compared to what's coming. Oil Price
****
**** Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
****
As I'm writing this on Friday evening ET, the hostage crisis in Dhaka,
the capital city of Bangladesh, is still in progress. There are at
least two dead and 20 hostages taken so far.
A public relations media source associated with the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is claiming credit for ISIS.
However, other analysts attribute the action to al-Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS). ISIS and al-Qaeda are in a growing competition
to take credit for as many terrorist acts as they can.
The attack took place in an upmarket area popular with wealthy
Bangladeshis and foreign tourists. As I've written several times in
the past, this is a signal that the act is being perpetrated by a
terror group associated with activist Biharis, the ethnic group that
lost to the ethnic Bengalis in the 1971 generational crisis war that
created the state of Bangladesh from the former East Pakistan. ( "12-Jun-16 World View -- Bangladesh government arrests 3,192 people to stop terrorist killings"
)
Today, there are hundreds of thousands of Biharis living in refugee
camps in filthy conditions, with the largest camp just north of Dhaka,
Bangladesh's capital city. These are certainly a large part of the
motivation for Bihari jihadist groups to continue terrorist attacks.
So, if either al-Qaeda or ISIS plays any role at all, it would be
purely for publicity purposes. It's not surprising that both of these
jihadist groups should claim credit, but this is a bloody conflict
between two ethnic groups, and it's only going to get worse. Dhaka Tribune
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World War I, Battle of the Somme,
France, François Hollande, Britain, David Cameron,
infant mortality, Spanish Flu, Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong,
Dhaka, Bangladesh, Bengalis, Biharis, East Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme
- The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality
- Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
****
**** Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme
****
Tyne Cot War Cemetery, with graves of 11,954 soldiers in the British army (greatwar.co.uk)
The Battle of the Somme, possibly the worst botched battle in the
British army's history, began on July 1, 1916. The British wanted to
deliver a knockout blow to the German army. For over a week, the
British had fired some 1,738,000 artillery shells at the German line
in order to prepare for the British infantry advance. However, the
Germans were prepared for this. The German soldiers moved into deep
dugouts that had been prepared. When the bombardment stopped, the
Germans knew that was a signal that the infantry attack was about to
begin, so they left the dugout and moved to their machine guns. Some
100,000 British and French army soldiers went "over the top" to
confront the Germans and the machine guns along a 25-mile front. By
the end of the first day, the British army had lost 60,000 men.
By the end of 141 days of battle, in November 1916, the British had
lost 420,000, the French lost 200,000 men and the Germans 500,000, for
a total of almost 1.2 million casualties in this one battle. The
British army had not only not delivered a knockout blow, they had
moved their front line only seven miles.
The British Generals had botched the situation so badly that by the
1920s, many veterans were describing the entire war as "Lions led by
Donkeys."
On Friday, France's president François Hollande and Britain's prime
minister David Cameron met at the site of the battle to commemorate
the deaths, to give the usual speeches saying "Never again." This
commemoration comes just weeks after the commemoration of the Battle of Verdun.
The commemoration comes one week after the Brexit vote, mandating that
Britain should leave the European Union. The biggest motivation for
the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 and for the European Union, was
that the survivors of World War I and II wanted to guarantee that
Europe would never fight wars like the two world wars ever again. The
Brexit vote means that this guarantee will not be met.
Today, the survivors of the two world wars are gone, and so it's
particularly ironic that the commemoration comes at a time when the
European Union is falling apart, and the same nationalistic and
xenophobic forces that brought about the Battle of the Somme and other
battles are rising again. History Learning and Telegraph (London) and Deutsche Welle
****
**** The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality
****
Estimated infant mortality rates - 1870-1999 - in Chicago
There were 38 million military and civilian casualties in World War I,
including 11 million military personnel. The number of deaths was
astonishing, mainly because there had never been so many deaths in
previous wars.
Politicians discussing the Battle of the Somme this week blamed the
large number of deaths as "a failure of political leadership," and
pontificated that if the political leadership had been better, then
World War I would have had fewer deaths.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's very likely that
38 million people had to die, no matter how well the politicians ran
the war. In fact, asking why 38 million people died in World War I is
the wrong question. The right question is: Where did all those people
come from?
Prior to 1870, some 30% of all infants died before their first
birthday. (By age 5, the figure was about 50%.)
But infant and child mortality fell dramatically in the 1890s, and
again in the 1920s, as you can see from the graph. This fall in
infant mortality meant that a lot more infants lived long enough to
become soldiers. That's why there were so many more soldiers in WW I,
and then again in WW II. And that's why there were so many more
soldiers to be killed.
In other words, curing infant mortality is a wonderful thing for the
individual parents, but it has the unintended consequence of creating
large population of young boys ready to be sent into war as cannon
fodder.
When there are too many people, nature provides several ways to kill
them off -- war, disease, and famine. If those 38 million people
hadn't been killed by World War I, then they would have had to be
killed some other way. That's the way the world works.
Actually, that wasn't the end of it. The global Spanish Flu pandemic
of 1918 killed up to 50 million more people. Then 60 million more
people were killed in World War II. Hundreds of millions more were
killed by Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong in various Communist purges.
Today it's much worse. There are 200,000 people added to the global
population every day. At the same time, growing populations are
displacing more and more farmland. There is no way that this
situation is sustainable, or will end well, and Brexit is just one
thing that's leading the way. The Battle of the Somme was just a
minor blip compared to what's coming. Oil Price
****
**** Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack
****
As I'm writing this on Friday evening ET, the hostage crisis in Dhaka,
the capital city of Bangladesh, is still in progress. There are at
least two dead and 20 hostages taken so far.
A public relations media source associated with the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is claiming credit for ISIS.
However, other analysts attribute the action to al-Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS). ISIS and al-Qaeda are in a growing competition
to take credit for as many terrorist acts as they can.
The attack took place in an upmarket area popular with wealthy
Bangladeshis and foreign tourists. As I've written several times in
the past, this is a signal that the act is being perpetrated by a
terror group associated with activist Biharis, the ethnic group that
lost to the ethnic Bengalis in the 1971 generational crisis war that
created the state of Bangladesh from the former East Pakistan. ( "12-Jun-16 World View -- Bangladesh government arrests 3,192 people to stop terrorist killings"
)
Today, there are hundreds of thousands of Biharis living in refugee
camps in filthy conditions, with the largest camp just north of Dhaka,
Bangladesh's capital city. These are certainly a large part of the
motivation for Bihari jihadist groups to continue terrorist attacks.
So, if either al-Qaeda or ISIS plays any role at all, it would be
purely for publicity purposes. It's not surprising that both of these
jihadist groups should claim credit, but this is a bloody conflict
between two ethnic groups, and it's only going to get worse. Dhaka Tribune
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World War I, Battle of the Somme,
France, François Hollande, Britain, David Cameron,
infant mortality, Spanish Flu, Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong,
Dhaka, Bangladesh, Bengalis, Biharis, East Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
