04-28-2019, 08:14 PM
*** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Note: This article was originally published by Baillie-Gifford
investment management firm on March 9. Updates since them: North
Korea has tested a low-altitude cruise missile, and Kim Jong-un has
met with Vladimir Putin.
****
**** South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
****
![[Image: g190428b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190428b.jpg)
Sohae Launch Facility in North Korea, March 2, 2019
New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid
rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range
ballistic missiles.
The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North
Korea committed to dismantle it in order to "prove" that it was
denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in
exchange, which was refused. The US agreed to temporarily end large
military drills with South Korea, and has recently extended that to a
permanent ban, after the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same
time, the US demanded from North Korea a list of all nuclear and
missile development sites, and a timeline to dismantle all of them,
which North Korea has refused.
It's not clear if this is play-acting by the North Koreans, or whether
it represents a plan to return to open testing of long-range ballistic
missiles. At the very least, it appears to signal a final end to the
"charm offensive" between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and their
mutual declarations of love and devotion to one another, and a return
to fear that there will be a military confrontation with North Korea.
Based on history, this fear should give a boost to the South Korean
weapons industry. According to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea has previously responded to
the belligerence of North Korea by developing weapons systems, for
both domestic use for sales overseas, with the intention of becoming a
major exporter.
****
**** History of South Korea's indigenous weapons industry
****
After being devastated by the Korean War in the 1950s, South Korea was
one of the world’s largest importers of military equipment and
technology for decades - mostly from the US. But slowly, starting the
1960s, South Korea has progressively developed a sophisticated
indigenous arms industry, first for its own armed forces and,
increasingly, for export. South Korean exports have steadily
increased since the early 2000s, and now cover a range of
high-technology weapons systems delivered to customers around the
world.
The buildup has been rapid. South Korean arms-producing companies’
combined sales totalled US$8.4 billion in 2016, with a 20.6% rise in
sales compared to 2015. According to budget plans announced in
January, South Korea plans to spend over $84 billion on new military
capabilities over five years.
South Korean weapons company LIG Nex1 is aggressively pursuing
international weapons sales, and participated last month in the
International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) 2019 opening in Abu Dhabi with
a slew of its precision-guided munitions. The company's exhibit
included the medium-range surface-to-air missile KM-SAM Cheongung, the
short-range anti-air guided missile Shingung, the lightweight torpedo
Cheongsangeo (Blue Shark), the anti-tank guided weapon Hyungung and
the counter-battery radar II.
****
**** Chinese fury and revenge over THAAD
****
The KM-SAM Cheongung is playing a significant role in South Korea's
defenses to a North Korean missile attack. North Korea has for
decades been exposed to North Korea’s large and diverse arsenal of
tactical and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
The most controversial component of South Korea's growing missile
defense system is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD),
supplied by the United States military. THAAD is designed to shoot
down ballistic missiles on their terminal trajectory as they plunge
down to their targets.
The US has for years asked South Korea's government to permit
deployment of THAAD systems in South Korea. South Korea demurred,
mainly because of opposition from China, though agreed in 2014 to
allow it in principle. Then, because of North Korea's aggressive
schedule of nuclear and missile tests, South Korea agreed to a
surprise deployment of two THAAD launchers starting in March, 2017,
approved by the conservative president, Park Geun-bye. When liberal
president Moon Jae-in took office in May, 2017, he rejected any
further THAAD deployment. But then North Korea tested a powerful new
long-range ballistic missile on July 29, 2017, and Moon had a change
of heart, and approved further THAAD deployments, four more launchers
in addition to the two already deployed.
Chinese officials were infuriated and became almost hysterical. Why
would the Chinese object to the deployment in South Korea of an
anti-missile system that would protect South Korea from North Korean
missiles? Chinese media provided the answer:
<QUOTE>"The X-band radar can snoop on Chinese and Russian
territories as it can spot at least 2,000 km. Seoul claims that it
will adopt the radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but
the mode change can be made at any time in accordance with the
needs of the U.S military that will operate the THAAD battery in
South Korea."<END QUOTE>
In other words, the Chinese were furious because the THAAD system
includes "over the horizon" radar that would provide early warning to
the American military of a missile attack from China.
China expressed its fury with South Korea in more than mere words.
China banned tour groups from visiting China, removed popular South
Korean TV dramas from the internet. China also forced the closure of
75 South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in
losses to the company.
China particularly ordered the Chinese living in China and in South
Korea to boycott Lotte deparment stores, owned by Lotte Group, a South
Korean multinational conglomerate. China decided on this punishment
because it emerged that Lotte had agreed to a land swap that would
allow THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the
company. The enraged Chinese imposed harsh economic sanctions,
particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South
Korea with a boycott.
A correspondent living in Seoul has wrote to me in April 2017 to
describe the devastating impact of the actions by China:
<QUOTE>"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit
the country like a ton of bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte
department store today, and it was practically empty. I have
friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are
facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The
thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is
only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally
woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to
Korea. ...
I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word
'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel
sick."<END QUOTE>
By November 2017, relations between China and South Korea had
deteriorated substantially, and it was clear that the THAAD systems
would not be removed. So China backed down. In a surprise
announcement, China agreed to remove the harsh economic sanctions that
it had imposed on South Korea. However, it imposed conditions, and
suggested that the economic sanctions and boycotts would be reimposed
if the conditions are not met.
****
**** South Korea's network of anti-missile defenses
****
China had one more objection to THAAD: China said that THAAD is
useless because it is not designed to intercept North Korean missiles,
which travel at too low an altitude for THAAD.
That's an interesting argument because it's partially true. When
North Korea attacks the capital city Seoul, which is in the northern
part of South Korea, it will use low-altitude missiles for that
attack. However, THAAD is used as protection from ballistic missiles
that North Korea will use to attack the southern part of South Korea.
So what will protect Seoul?
This brings us back to the the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range
surface-to-air missile system and its new PIP missile interceptor,
manufactured by LIG Nex1 and other South Korean firms.
THAAD and KM-SAM work together to create an anti-missile defense
network. While THAAD defends against high-altitude ballistic
missiles, KM-SAM can defend against low-altitude aircraft and missile
attacks. The American-made Patriot anti-missile systems also provide
a tactical layer of defense.
Late last year, LIG Nex1 signed a 499 billion won ($450 million) mass
production contract with the South Korean government to produce KM-SAM
systems. Other companies, including Hanhwa System, Hanhwa Defense,
Hyundai and Kia, will participate in the mass production. According
to LIG Nex1, KM-SAM is attracting high interest in overseas market due
to its excellent operational performance, and it is expected to be
exported on a large scale in the future.
However, the KM-SAM has plenty of competition. Last month, the
Colombian Air Force selected Israel's Barak-8 system over South
Korea's KM-SAM and other similar systems from Canada, Spain, the
United States and France. Yonhap (15-Feb-2019)
and NK News (11-Jan-2019) and National Interest (24-Feb-2019) and Army Recognition (13-Sep-2018) and AFP (20-Jul-2018) and Jerusalem Post (20-Feb-2019)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, North Korea,
Sohae Launch facility, LIG Nex1, KM-SAM Cheongung,
International Defence Exhibition, IDEX,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
Park Geun-bye, Moon Jae-in, China, Russia,
Lotte Group, Patriot anti-missile system,
Israel, Barak-8
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
- History of South Korea's indigenous weapons industry
- Chinese fury and revenge over THAAD
- South Korea's network of anti-missile defenses
Note: This article was originally published by Baillie-Gifford
investment management firm on March 9. Updates since them: North
Korea has tested a low-altitude cruise missile, and Kim Jong-un has
met with Vladimir Putin.
****
**** South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
****
Sohae Launch Facility in North Korea, March 2, 2019
New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid
rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range
ballistic missiles.
The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North
Korea committed to dismantle it in order to "prove" that it was
denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in
exchange, which was refused. The US agreed to temporarily end large
military drills with South Korea, and has recently extended that to a
permanent ban, after the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same
time, the US demanded from North Korea a list of all nuclear and
missile development sites, and a timeline to dismantle all of them,
which North Korea has refused.
It's not clear if this is play-acting by the North Koreans, or whether
it represents a plan to return to open testing of long-range ballistic
missiles. At the very least, it appears to signal a final end to the
"charm offensive" between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and their
mutual declarations of love and devotion to one another, and a return
to fear that there will be a military confrontation with North Korea.
Based on history, this fear should give a boost to the South Korean
weapons industry. According to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea has previously responded to
the belligerence of North Korea by developing weapons systems, for
both domestic use for sales overseas, with the intention of becoming a
major exporter.
****
**** History of South Korea's indigenous weapons industry
****
After being devastated by the Korean War in the 1950s, South Korea was
one of the world’s largest importers of military equipment and
technology for decades - mostly from the US. But slowly, starting the
1960s, South Korea has progressively developed a sophisticated
indigenous arms industry, first for its own armed forces and,
increasingly, for export. South Korean exports have steadily
increased since the early 2000s, and now cover a range of
high-technology weapons systems delivered to customers around the
world.
The buildup has been rapid. South Korean arms-producing companies’
combined sales totalled US$8.4 billion in 2016, with a 20.6% rise in
sales compared to 2015. According to budget plans announced in
January, South Korea plans to spend over $84 billion on new military
capabilities over five years.
South Korean weapons company LIG Nex1 is aggressively pursuing
international weapons sales, and participated last month in the
International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) 2019 opening in Abu Dhabi with
a slew of its precision-guided munitions. The company's exhibit
included the medium-range surface-to-air missile KM-SAM Cheongung, the
short-range anti-air guided missile Shingung, the lightweight torpedo
Cheongsangeo (Blue Shark), the anti-tank guided weapon Hyungung and
the counter-battery radar II.
****
**** Chinese fury and revenge over THAAD
****
The KM-SAM Cheongung is playing a significant role in South Korea's
defenses to a North Korean missile attack. North Korea has for
decades been exposed to North Korea’s large and diverse arsenal of
tactical and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
The most controversial component of South Korea's growing missile
defense system is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD),
supplied by the United States military. THAAD is designed to shoot
down ballistic missiles on their terminal trajectory as they plunge
down to their targets.
The US has for years asked South Korea's government to permit
deployment of THAAD systems in South Korea. South Korea demurred,
mainly because of opposition from China, though agreed in 2014 to
allow it in principle. Then, because of North Korea's aggressive
schedule of nuclear and missile tests, South Korea agreed to a
surprise deployment of two THAAD launchers starting in March, 2017,
approved by the conservative president, Park Geun-bye. When liberal
president Moon Jae-in took office in May, 2017, he rejected any
further THAAD deployment. But then North Korea tested a powerful new
long-range ballistic missile on July 29, 2017, and Moon had a change
of heart, and approved further THAAD deployments, four more launchers
in addition to the two already deployed.
Chinese officials were infuriated and became almost hysterical. Why
would the Chinese object to the deployment in South Korea of an
anti-missile system that would protect South Korea from North Korean
missiles? Chinese media provided the answer:
<QUOTE>"The X-band radar can snoop on Chinese and Russian
territories as it can spot at least 2,000 km. Seoul claims that it
will adopt the radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but
the mode change can be made at any time in accordance with the
needs of the U.S military that will operate the THAAD battery in
South Korea."<END QUOTE>
In other words, the Chinese were furious because the THAAD system
includes "over the horizon" radar that would provide early warning to
the American military of a missile attack from China.
China expressed its fury with South Korea in more than mere words.
China banned tour groups from visiting China, removed popular South
Korean TV dramas from the internet. China also forced the closure of
75 South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in
losses to the company.
China particularly ordered the Chinese living in China and in South
Korea to boycott Lotte deparment stores, owned by Lotte Group, a South
Korean multinational conglomerate. China decided on this punishment
because it emerged that Lotte had agreed to a land swap that would
allow THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the
company. The enraged Chinese imposed harsh economic sanctions,
particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South
Korea with a boycott.
A correspondent living in Seoul has wrote to me in April 2017 to
describe the devastating impact of the actions by China:
<QUOTE>"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit
the country like a ton of bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte
department store today, and it was practically empty. I have
friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are
facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The
thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is
only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally
woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to
Korea. ...
I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word
'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel
sick."<END QUOTE>
By November 2017, relations between China and South Korea had
deteriorated substantially, and it was clear that the THAAD systems
would not be removed. So China backed down. In a surprise
announcement, China agreed to remove the harsh economic sanctions that
it had imposed on South Korea. However, it imposed conditions, and
suggested that the economic sanctions and boycotts would be reimposed
if the conditions are not met.
****
**** South Korea's network of anti-missile defenses
****
China had one more objection to THAAD: China said that THAAD is
useless because it is not designed to intercept North Korean missiles,
which travel at too low an altitude for THAAD.
That's an interesting argument because it's partially true. When
North Korea attacks the capital city Seoul, which is in the northern
part of South Korea, it will use low-altitude missiles for that
attack. However, THAAD is used as protection from ballistic missiles
that North Korea will use to attack the southern part of South Korea.
So what will protect Seoul?
This brings us back to the the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range
surface-to-air missile system and its new PIP missile interceptor,
manufactured by LIG Nex1 and other South Korean firms.
THAAD and KM-SAM work together to create an anti-missile defense
network. While THAAD defends against high-altitude ballistic
missiles, KM-SAM can defend against low-altitude aircraft and missile
attacks. The American-made Patriot anti-missile systems also provide
a tactical layer of defense.
Late last year, LIG Nex1 signed a 499 billion won ($450 million) mass
production contract with the South Korean government to produce KM-SAM
systems. Other companies, including Hanhwa System, Hanhwa Defense,
Hyundai and Kia, will participate in the mass production. According
to LIG Nex1, KM-SAM is attracting high interest in overseas market due
to its excellent operational performance, and it is expected to be
exported on a large scale in the future.
However, the KM-SAM has plenty of competition. Last month, the
Colombian Air Force selected Israel's Barak-8 system over South
Korea's KM-SAM and other similar systems from Canada, Spain, the
United States and France. Yonhap (15-Feb-2019)
and NK News (11-Jan-2019) and National Interest (24-Feb-2019) and Army Recognition (13-Sep-2018) and AFP (20-Jul-2018) and Jerusalem Post (20-Feb-2019)
Related Articles:
- North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course (17-Nov-2018)
- North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
- China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
- US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, North Korea,
Sohae Launch facility, LIG Nex1, KM-SAM Cheongung,
International Defence Exhibition, IDEX,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
Park Geun-bye, Moon Jae-in, China, Russia,
Lotte Group, Patriot anti-missile system,
Israel, Barak-8
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
