Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-May-2019 World View: Massive African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China having global effects

• ASF outbreaks in China, Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia (FAO)

A massive outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in pigs in China and
neighboring countries is threatening to spill over into the global
food supply and affect food prices. ASF is an animal disease which
cannot spread to humans, and is not to be confused with swine flu.

ASF is endemic to Africa, and has occasionally spread to Europe and
Russia, where its spread has been largely contained.

When a case was confirmed on the China-North Korea border on August 3,
2018, officials were alarmed because of China's huge pig population.
China has 440 million pigs, half the world's pig population. By
coincidence, 2019 is China's "Year of the Pig."

But apparently there was a mutation in the ASF virus that is making
things much worse than expected. Scientists had expected the virus to
spread rapidly and burn itself out. But the virus has adapted to its
new environment, and instead is exhibiting a slow and steady movement
across Asia.

Although ASF cannot replicate outside of a host, it can survive for
long periods of time without a host, which is why it’s particularly
difficult to control. The virus is hard to kill, withstanding harsh
environments, extreme weather conditions, and even persisting in meat
that’s been cooked or smoked. That means when contaminated food scraps
end up in swill, cannibalistic swine contract ASF. The contagion can
lay dormant in exported corn or grain-based feed, too, until a hungry
pig reanimates the virus, sometimes on the other side of the globe.
The virus is also variable, meaning different strains of ASF are
emerging in different areas of the world. And because the pathogen has
a gigantic genome that easily changes to fit new conditions,
veterinarians don’t have a vaccine against it. (Popular Science)

ASF has literally "gone viral." It's spread nationwide and crossed
borders to Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia. In an attempt to contain
the disease there has been massive culling of tens of millions of
pigs, and China's hog herd may decline by 30% this year.

This has already has affected food prices globally, with American
Easter hams costing the most in four years. Prices of other meats
have also been increasing, as consumer switch from pork to beef or
chicken.

China has been severely affected, since pork is a major part of the
Chinese diet. Wholesale pork prices in China are already 21% higher
than a year ago, and China will need to import substantial amounts of
pork and likely other meat and poultry to satisfy demand.

This is one more reason why China is desperate to reach an agreement
in the US-China trade talks. The question is whether they're
desperate enough to agree to the "snapback system" that I described
yesterday, that permits the US to quickly reimpose tariffs if China
cheats on its trade commitments.


--- Sources:

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / China / Pig ‘Ebola’ Virus Sends Shock
Waves Through Global Food Chain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...food-chain
(Bloomberg, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / The Deadly African Virus That’s Killing
China’s Pigs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-quicktake
(Bloomberg, 1-May-2019)

-- ASF / China / African swine fever has killed a million pigs—and
isn't slowing down
https://www.popsci.com/african-swine-fever-science
(Popular Science, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF situation in Asia update
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes...pdate.html
(UN Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, 2-May-2019)

-- African swine fever, Cambodia
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid....rtid=30032
(World Organization for Animal Health, OIE, 3-Apr-2019)