05-11-2019, 12:54 PM
** 09-May-2019 China's sinister strategy in US-Trade talks
The SCMP article that you quoted is interesting on multiple levels,
because it suggests a Chinese strateby that's even more sinister than
I've been assuming.
The scenario that analysts had been describing recently was that
the Chinese negotiators had been too anxious to make a deal, and
so had made too many concessions, and Xi Jinping had to pull back
on them.
The new interpretation of events is far more sinister: The Chinese
strategy was to make concessions that would never be implemented in
order to get Trump to agree to a deal, and then pull back on the
concessions at the last moment, when Trump would be politically forced
to accept the weak deal -- and remove the tariffs with China having to
make no real concessions on trade at all.
The reason that this strategy is so credible is that North Korea used
exactly the same strategy at the Hanoi summit. Kim Jong-un had hoped
to politically force Trump to agree to remove sanctions with North
Korea having to make no real concessions on denuclearization at all.
It's scary how similar these two strategies are. In both cases, they
seemed to believe that Trump would be forced to back down, and then
they would once again have defrauded the United States in a
negotiation, as both countries had done so many times in the past.
In both cases, Trump has shown himself willing to be the "bad guy,"
and walk away, rather than accept a bad deal. However, what's
different this time is that Trump has the (usually tacit) support
of the international community in the West. Nobody in the West
wants North Korea to have nuclear missiles, and almost every
country in the West has had their trade secrets and intellectual
property stolen by the Chinese.
There's another interesting angle to the SCMP article.
Hong Kong was a British colony from the 1850s to 1997. Starting
in the 1930s with the Sino-Japanese war, China used Hong Kong
as a communications channel with the outside world, to beg
for money and other resources to fight the war. Hong Kong
was the civilized face of China.
The SCMP article suggests that Hong Kong is still being used as the
civilized face of China. The article goes on at length to say that
Beijing is already making changes in IP and trade law, and the article
suggests that there's no real difference between Beijing's and
Washington's positions, except communications difficulties, and that
it should be easy to reach agreement.
But the article contradicts that point when it also says that the
"expansive demands from Washington's trade hawks" are delusional.
Once again, this is the same as the North Korea strategy -- blame
disagreements on John Bolton, in the hope of forcing Trump to
compromise.
And the news this morning is that North Korea has launched two more
"short range projectiles," apparently believing that doing so might
embarass Trump into concessions, a belief that's profoundly
delusional.
There's lots of interesting stuff going on here, but both sides are
playing hardball, and it seems very likely that the harsh new tariffs
will be implemented tomorrow, with whatever consequences they bring.
The SCMP article that you quoted is interesting on multiple levels,
because it suggests a Chinese strateby that's even more sinister than
I've been assuming.
Quote:> From the South China Morning Post (A Hong Kong News org)
> But national pride, and a Communist Party ideology grounded in
> resisting unequal treaties in the name of free trade, mean that
> such shifts could never be seen to be done under
> duress.
Burner Prime Wrote:> This is an example of how this event is more serious than
> normal. Diplomacy always involves allowing one side an "out", and
> saving face is of paramount importance in Asian culture. One
> singular genius I've observed from Trump is he avoids badmouthing
> people he's negotiating with when the stakes are really high, such
> as with Kim Jong Un, Putin, and Xi Jinping. Instead he prefers to
> pay them compliments. This is in stark contrast with other nations
> where the stakes are low (Trudeau, etc).
> However in this case, Trump has called them out in public for
> reneging on a previous deal. This does not give them an out. And
> now brinkmanship is in play. This situation requires more
> attention than the typical nonsense seen in Washington.
> http://www.scmp.com/business/china-busin...ons-expose
The scenario that analysts had been describing recently was that
the Chinese negotiators had been too anxious to make a deal, and
so had made too many concessions, and Xi Jinping had to pull back
on them.
The new interpretation of events is far more sinister: The Chinese
strategy was to make concessions that would never be implemented in
order to get Trump to agree to a deal, and then pull back on the
concessions at the last moment, when Trump would be politically forced
to accept the weak deal -- and remove the tariffs with China having to
make no real concessions on trade at all.
The reason that this strategy is so credible is that North Korea used
exactly the same strategy at the Hanoi summit. Kim Jong-un had hoped
to politically force Trump to agree to remove sanctions with North
Korea having to make no real concessions on denuclearization at all.
It's scary how similar these two strategies are. In both cases, they
seemed to believe that Trump would be forced to back down, and then
they would once again have defrauded the United States in a
negotiation, as both countries had done so many times in the past.
In both cases, Trump has shown himself willing to be the "bad guy,"
and walk away, rather than accept a bad deal. However, what's
different this time is that Trump has the (usually tacit) support
of the international community in the West. Nobody in the West
wants North Korea to have nuclear missiles, and almost every
country in the West has had their trade secrets and intellectual
property stolen by the Chinese.
There's another interesting angle to the SCMP article.
Hong Kong was a British colony from the 1850s to 1997. Starting
in the 1930s with the Sino-Japanese war, China used Hong Kong
as a communications channel with the outside world, to beg
for money and other resources to fight the war. Hong Kong
was the civilized face of China.
The SCMP article suggests that Hong Kong is still being used as the
civilized face of China. The article goes on at length to say that
Beijing is already making changes in IP and trade law, and the article
suggests that there's no real difference between Beijing's and
Washington's positions, except communications difficulties, and that
it should be easy to reach agreement.
But the article contradicts that point when it also says that the
"expansive demands from Washington's trade hawks" are delusional.
Once again, this is the same as the North Korea strategy -- blame
disagreements on John Bolton, in the hope of forcing Trump to
compromise.
And the news this morning is that North Korea has launched two more
"short range projectiles," apparently believing that doing so might
embarass Trump into concessions, a belief that's profoundly
delusional.
There's lots of interesting stuff going on here, but both sides are
playing hardball, and it seems very likely that the harsh new tariffs
will be implemented tomorrow, with whatever consequences they bring.
