05-18-2019, 07:07 PM
** 18-May-2019 World View: Australia's climate change activists suffer a surprise election rout
Apparently nobody saw this coming. The Labor Party, headed by Bill
Shorten, was expected by everyone to win the majority of seats in
Saturday's nationwide elections in Australia, but instead, the winner
was the conservative Liberal-National Coalition, led by Scott
Morrison, according to exit polls.
This is being compared to the unexpected win by Donald Trump in the
2016 election, where many polls turned out to be wrong.
According to analysts, there were two major issues that led to the
shock result. One was that the Labor party was promising to
raise taxes and spend a lot more on social programs.
But the major issue that led to the Liberal-National Coalition
victory, according to analysts, was that the Labor Party was
promising to implement the same sort of loony tunes climate
change agenda that we're always hearing about in the United
States and Europe.
In Australia's case, the biggest loss to Labor were a number
of seats in Queensland, which has a lot of coal mines. Normally,
coal miners vote overwhelming for Labor, but in this case,
they believed that Labor's climate change activist agenda
would cost them their jobs, so they switched sides.
The greatest shock of this election is that everyone got it wrong
because the polls got it so wrong. And for those people interested
in participating in forecasting contests, this is a good example from
Chaos Theory that shows why neither polls nor Generational Dynamics
can predict election results.
--- Sources:
-- Australian election: Queensland drives a stake through Labor's
hopes
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...abor-hopes
(Guardian, London, 18-May-2019)
-- Adani / One word that sums up Labor’s election disaster in
Queensland
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal...038f66b2ca
(News.com, Australia)
-- 2019 Australia election: Morrison celebrates 'miracle' win
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48305001
(BBC)
-- How Australia’s Election Could Save the World (But Won’t)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...story.html
(Bloomberg, 17-May-2019)
Apparently nobody saw this coming. The Labor Party, headed by Bill
Shorten, was expected by everyone to win the majority of seats in
Saturday's nationwide elections in Australia, but instead, the winner
was the conservative Liberal-National Coalition, led by Scott
Morrison, according to exit polls.
This is being compared to the unexpected win by Donald Trump in the
2016 election, where many polls turned out to be wrong.
According to analysts, there were two major issues that led to the
shock result. One was that the Labor party was promising to
raise taxes and spend a lot more on social programs.
But the major issue that led to the Liberal-National Coalition
victory, according to analysts, was that the Labor Party was
promising to implement the same sort of loony tunes climate
change agenda that we're always hearing about in the United
States and Europe.
In Australia's case, the biggest loss to Labor were a number
of seats in Queensland, which has a lot of coal mines. Normally,
coal miners vote overwhelming for Labor, but in this case,
they believed that Labor's climate change activist agenda
would cost them their jobs, so they switched sides.
The greatest shock of this election is that everyone got it wrong
because the polls got it so wrong. And for those people interested
in participating in forecasting contests, this is a good example from
Chaos Theory that shows why neither polls nor Generational Dynamics
can predict election results.
--- Sources:
-- Australian election: Queensland drives a stake through Labor's
hopes
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...abor-hopes
(Guardian, London, 18-May-2019)
-- Adani / One word that sums up Labor’s election disaster in
Queensland
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal...038f66b2ca
(News.com, Australia)
-- 2019 Australia election: Morrison celebrates 'miracle' win
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48305001
(BBC)
-- How Australia’s Election Could Save the World (But Won’t)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...story.html
(Bloomberg, 17-May-2019)
