06-21-2019, 01:51 PM
** 21-Jun-2019 Situation in Iran after drone shot down
What's happened with Iran in the last 24 hours is absolutely
breathtaking.
If that whole scenario was accidental, then Trump is very lucky that
nothing went wrong.
But if you're right that Trump masterminded the scenario -- and that's
certainly quite possible or even likely, given his past successes with
foreign policy scenarios -- then you're right that it was brilliant.
I've never believed that the US and Iran were headed for war. Iran is
in a generational Awakening era, and has a history (since the
humiliating defeat in the Anglo-Persian wars of the 1800s) of avoiding
an actual war. Doing abductions and terrorist acts, whether through
Hezbollah, or exploding oil tankers or shooting down drones, is
exactly the style of Iran, especially since the 1979 revolution. That
way, Iran can gain the benefits of performing acts of war, while
maintaining deniability. ("We didn't do anything. There's no
evidence whatsoever." We hear this all the time from Russia.)
Trump, on the other hand, through his knowledge of Generational
Dynamics that he learned through Steve Bannon, understands that Iran's
hostility is only in the old hardline geezers, who are opposed by the
growing younger population that are anti-hardline and pro-West, so
Trump does not want to turn Iran's younger population against the
United States.
So there was never going to be a war or, if one begins, it will fizzle
quickly.
Trump said that he was going to strike 3 radar stations, but held back
since 150 people would be killed. The Iranians claim they could have
shot down an American spy plane with 8 people, but held back. So both
sides are signaling that they don't want war.
mps92 Wrote:> Aren't we going to talk about the situation in Iran?
> The way Trump handled the situation was brilliant. By approving
> the attack but calling it off at the last minute, we avoid war but
> the Iranians understand that conflict is never off the table. It
> looks like the report was leaked deliberately. Absolute genius.
> Trump is also showing that he's not the trigger-happy maniac
> that's just waiting to push the button. He gave Iran the benefit
> of the doubt by assuming that the drone was shot down by some
> foolish, overeager, swashbuckling Iranian officer against the
> wishes of the Iran govt.
> As John has stated, unnecessary and risky decisions by officers
> can easily start wars, even if neither govt wants conflict. Let's
> just pray that Trump is aware that Iran should be our ally instead
> of our enemy, and aware that the China-Pakistan axis is the real
> threat.
What's happened with Iran in the last 24 hours is absolutely
breathtaking.
If that whole scenario was accidental, then Trump is very lucky that
nothing went wrong.
But if you're right that Trump masterminded the scenario -- and that's
certainly quite possible or even likely, given his past successes with
foreign policy scenarios -- then you're right that it was brilliant.
I've never believed that the US and Iran were headed for war. Iran is
in a generational Awakening era, and has a history (since the
humiliating defeat in the Anglo-Persian wars of the 1800s) of avoiding
an actual war. Doing abductions and terrorist acts, whether through
Hezbollah, or exploding oil tankers or shooting down drones, is
exactly the style of Iran, especially since the 1979 revolution. That
way, Iran can gain the benefits of performing acts of war, while
maintaining deniability. ("We didn't do anything. There's no
evidence whatsoever." We hear this all the time from Russia.)
Trump, on the other hand, through his knowledge of Generational
Dynamics that he learned through Steve Bannon, understands that Iran's
hostility is only in the old hardline geezers, who are opposed by the
growing younger population that are anti-hardline and pro-West, so
Trump does not want to turn Iran's younger population against the
United States.
So there was never going to be a war or, if one begins, it will fizzle
quickly.
Trump said that he was going to strike 3 radar stations, but held back
since 150 people would be killed. The Iranians claim they could have
shot down an American spy plane with 8 people, but held back. So both
sides are signaling that they don't want war.
