06-21-2019, 09:10 PM
*** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
****
![[Image: g190621b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190621b.jpg)
Protesters outside police headquarters in Hong Kong on Friday (SCMP)
Thousands of protesters in Hong Kong blocked police headquarters on
Friday, continuing their protests that were triggered by the proposed
"Extradition Law."
In the hope of allowing the protests to fizzle out, the Hong Kong
police took no action to disperse the protesters. However,
larger protests are planned all weekend.
The proposed Extradition Law that would permit Hong Kong's government
to extradite anyone in Hong Kong -- citizens, businessmen and tourists
alike -- to China, to be tried by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs
in Beijing courts. The proposed law would also permit mainland
Chinese courts can request Hong Kong courts to freeze and confiscate
assets related to crimes committed on the mainland, and give control
of those assets to the CCP in Beijing.
Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked last week by the size
of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Some two million
protesters filled the streets, over one-quarter of the entire Hong
Kong population.
With the third protest bringing one-quarter of Hong Kong's population
out on the streets to demand that Beijing's hand-picked leader Carrie
Lam step down, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan have
been emboldened. For the CCP, it's a question of what action must be
taken, not whether action should be taken.
When Britain handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997, there was a "one
country, two systems" agreement that would allow Hong Kong to retain
its own social legal and political systems. There was a strong
firewall in the agreement between the Hong Kong and Beijing legal
systems that the extradition law would breach.
Carrie Lam has profusely and abjectly apologized to the people of Hong
Kong, and announced the suspension of consideration for the
extradition bill. With activists planning massive new pro-democracy
demonstrations on Sunday of last weekend, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam
announced on Saturday:
<QUOTE>"After repeated internal deliberations over the last
two days, I now announce that the government has decided to
suspend the legislative amendment exercise, restart our
communication with all sectors of society, do more explanation
work and listen to different views of society."<END QUOTE>
Activists are demanding that the extradition law be scrapped
completely, so this temporary suspension will not satisfy activists.
As positions have hardened, this issue has taken on a symbolism that
goes far beyond Hong Kong.
No matter how weepy her apology was, she has little credibility among
the demonstrators because she didn't announce complete withdrawal of
the extradition law, which is a signal that it's going to be revived
at a time of the CCP's choosing.
Lam's climbdown was a major humiliation for the CCP, and Hong Kong is
Xi Jinping's portfolio, so hardliners in Beijing are blaming Xi for
the problems in Hong Kong. Xi is also being blamed for the failure so
far of the US-China trade negotiations. So Xi has two crises on his
hands, just before the G20 talks. This weakens Xi at a time when
there are hardliners in Beijing just waiting for Xi to fail so that
they can take over. Xi's position as "dictator for life" is not 100%
secure, and a palace coup would undoubtedly bring to power someone
younger and even more bellicose and belligerent.
Hardliners in Taiwan will also be strengthened. China has been using
a carrot and stick approach with Taiwan. On the one hand, Chinese
officials say that any move toward independence would result in
military reprisals. On the other hand, China has been on a continual
charm offensive to convince the Taiwanese people how much better off
they'd be as a province of China. Part of that charm offensive has
been to claim that Taiwan could have the same "one country, two
systems" perks that Hong Kong has. The protests in Hong Kong have
emboldened the pro-independence factions.
The protests last week were the largest that Hong Kong has seen since
June 1989, when Hong Kong was still a British colony, and millions in
Hong Kong protested against China in support of the millions of
students in the pro-democracy demonstrations Tiananmen Square, where
the CCP massacred thousands of students on June 4-5, 1989.
****
**** Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****
Because of the similarity between last week's Hong Kong protests and
the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, if you want to understand the most
likely outcome of the Hong Kong protests, look at the history of the
Tiananmen Square massacre, and examine the similarities and
differences.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests did not begin on June 4. They
began in early May, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests that launched the "May 4th Movement" on May
4, 1919. Throughout May 1989, the CCP watched Tiananmen Square with
growing alarm, because the pro-democracy protests were actually a
repudiation of the ideology of Socialism, Marxism and Communism.
In the perverse, delusional logic of the CCP, democracy is an
ideology, not a form of government. Furthermore, the CCP sees
democracy as an ideology in conflict with communism. So by the
beginning of June, the CCP was so alarmed that they had to crush the
protests, to prevent democracy from gaining an ideological victory.
The current pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong so far are on a
similar path. They're commemorating the 30th anniversary of the 1989
Tiananmen Square protests. As the number of protesters has grown into
the millions, the CCP in Beijing is seeing 1989 all over again. And
the pro-democracy protests are, once again, a repudiation of the
"communist" ideology promulgated by the CCP.
According to unnamed CCP sources speaking to Boxun.com, Xi Jinping has
already decided that "The situation in Hong Kong is in danger of
getting out of control," and that he will order a military response if
the situation worsens.
These sources say that the Southern Theater Command of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Hong Kong Garrison are awaiting orders
and prepared to fully respond to all possible scenarios that may arise
in Hong Kong.
Since 1997, the Hong Kong Garrison is a group of several thousand PLA
soldiers who are stationed in Hong Kong, but are meant to be
"invisible." They are confined to barracks, where they wear their
uniforms, but are not permitted to wear their uniforms in public.
They've never left their barracks in uniform in the 22 years they've
been stationed in Hong Kong, but they're prepared to emerge and take
military action if ordered to do so.
****
**** Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****
We've described the similarities with the 1989 Tiananmen Square
situation. However, there are significant differences as well.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre took place in Beijing, a region
tightly controlled by the CCP, where the international media was well
controlled, and was shut down quickly.
However, there's virtually no control of the international media in
Hong Kong. The CCP has canceled visas and deported journalists of
several publications, but the events of the last two week prove that
any violence in Hong Kong will immediately be known and broadcast
worldwide.
****
**** Southern China vs Northern China
****
However, there's a more important difference: The Tiananmen Square
massacre took place in Beijing in northern China, while Hong Kong is
in southern China.
Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese
civil wars. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the Communist
revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The massive
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian convert who
believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus, began
in the south and spread north.
Most people in the West do not make these connections, but you can be
certain that the paranoid officials in Beijing are well aware of the
dangers of a rebellion from the south that can spiral out of control
and travel north to swallow up Beijing.
Try playing around with the interactive "China strike map" from the
Hong Kong based China labor bulletin: https://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en
If you set the year to 2011, 2012, etc., you'll see that the number of
labor strikes is gradually increasing, from 184 in 2011 to 1702 in
2018. Furthermore, most of the strikes occur in southeast China,
which was the starting point of the unrest that led to the last two
massive Chinese civil wars.
This shows that there's already a level of unrest in southeast China,
and it's been growing steadily and relentlessly for years. Xi Jinping
is well aware of this.
Throughout China's millennia of history, there have been huge, massive
anti-government rebellions at regular intervals. In the last 200
years there have been the the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).
Today, China is overdue for the next massive anti-government
rebellion, and Xi Jinping is well aware that the Hong Kong
pro-democracy demonstrations could be the trigger.
Xi Jinping has another worry. There is no surer way to trigger a mass
rebellion in China than a failing economy. China's economy has
already taken a big hit from the new US tariffs, as many businesses
are relocating out of China to neighboring countries.
Hong Kong has always been China's portal to the world financial
system, and if Hong Kong become chaotic to the point that this portal
is essentially shut down, it will cause the economic failure that will
trigger the expected rebellion.
****
**** No good choices for Xi Jinping
****
So Xi Jinping is boxed in, with no good choices.
It's hard to overestimate the shock felt in Hong Kong and Beijing over
the size of the pro-democracy demonstrations last week, and their
similarity to the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square.
The Chinese are running out of time in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they
know it. The survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution are almost all
gone now, and the younger generations are increasingly anti-communist
and pro-democracy and pro-independence. At the same time, China's own
economy is hugely unstable and under pressure from the US tariffs.
China's entire business model, which involves stealing intellectual
property from the West, is also under attack.
China cannot tolerate this situation much longer. For 30 years, China
has been conducting a vitriolic hate campaign against Japan, and has
been planning for war to annex Taiwan and exterminate the Japanese.
The Chinese do not want war with the US (because they like us), but
they've been preparing for it.
Carrie Lam's weepy apology was certainly not an act of heartfelt
atonement or reconciliation, since that's not what the CCP ever does.
Instead, it was an act of total desperation, an attempt to head off
the worst. Over the next few weeks and months, we'll see if she
succeeded.
John J. Xenakis is author of "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)"
Sources: South China Morning Post, Hong Kong and China Labor Bulletin, Hong Kong
and Reuters, 15-Jun-2019 and ChannelNewsAsia/AFP, 15-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 13-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 16-Jun-2019 and Hong Kong Free Press, 18-Jun-2019 and Taiwan News, 12-Jun-2019 and Boxun, 11-Jun-2019 and Inkstone, 3-Aug-2018
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Extradition Law,
Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Britain,
Tiananmen Square massacre, May 4th Movement,
People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Southern Theater Command, Hong Kong Garrison,
Taiping Rebellion, White Lotus Rebellion,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Communist Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
- Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
- Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
- Southern China vs Northern China
- No good choices for Xi Jinping
****
**** Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
****
Protesters outside police headquarters in Hong Kong on Friday (SCMP)
Thousands of protesters in Hong Kong blocked police headquarters on
Friday, continuing their protests that were triggered by the proposed
"Extradition Law."
In the hope of allowing the protests to fizzle out, the Hong Kong
police took no action to disperse the protesters. However,
larger protests are planned all weekend.
The proposed Extradition Law that would permit Hong Kong's government
to extradite anyone in Hong Kong -- citizens, businessmen and tourists
alike -- to China, to be tried by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs
in Beijing courts. The proposed law would also permit mainland
Chinese courts can request Hong Kong courts to freeze and confiscate
assets related to crimes committed on the mainland, and give control
of those assets to the CCP in Beijing.
Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked last week by the size
of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Some two million
protesters filled the streets, over one-quarter of the entire Hong
Kong population.
With the third protest bringing one-quarter of Hong Kong's population
out on the streets to demand that Beijing's hand-picked leader Carrie
Lam step down, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan have
been emboldened. For the CCP, it's a question of what action must be
taken, not whether action should be taken.
When Britain handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997, there was a "one
country, two systems" agreement that would allow Hong Kong to retain
its own social legal and political systems. There was a strong
firewall in the agreement between the Hong Kong and Beijing legal
systems that the extradition law would breach.
Carrie Lam has profusely and abjectly apologized to the people of Hong
Kong, and announced the suspension of consideration for the
extradition bill. With activists planning massive new pro-democracy
demonstrations on Sunday of last weekend, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam
announced on Saturday:
<QUOTE>"After repeated internal deliberations over the last
two days, I now announce that the government has decided to
suspend the legislative amendment exercise, restart our
communication with all sectors of society, do more explanation
work and listen to different views of society."<END QUOTE>
Activists are demanding that the extradition law be scrapped
completely, so this temporary suspension will not satisfy activists.
As positions have hardened, this issue has taken on a symbolism that
goes far beyond Hong Kong.
No matter how weepy her apology was, she has little credibility among
the demonstrators because she didn't announce complete withdrawal of
the extradition law, which is a signal that it's going to be revived
at a time of the CCP's choosing.
Lam's climbdown was a major humiliation for the CCP, and Hong Kong is
Xi Jinping's portfolio, so hardliners in Beijing are blaming Xi for
the problems in Hong Kong. Xi is also being blamed for the failure so
far of the US-China trade negotiations. So Xi has two crises on his
hands, just before the G20 talks. This weakens Xi at a time when
there are hardliners in Beijing just waiting for Xi to fail so that
they can take over. Xi's position as "dictator for life" is not 100%
secure, and a palace coup would undoubtedly bring to power someone
younger and even more bellicose and belligerent.
Hardliners in Taiwan will also be strengthened. China has been using
a carrot and stick approach with Taiwan. On the one hand, Chinese
officials say that any move toward independence would result in
military reprisals. On the other hand, China has been on a continual
charm offensive to convince the Taiwanese people how much better off
they'd be as a province of China. Part of that charm offensive has
been to claim that Taiwan could have the same "one country, two
systems" perks that Hong Kong has. The protests in Hong Kong have
emboldened the pro-independence factions.
The protests last week were the largest that Hong Kong has seen since
June 1989, when Hong Kong was still a British colony, and millions in
Hong Kong protested against China in support of the millions of
students in the pro-democracy demonstrations Tiananmen Square, where
the CCP massacred thousands of students on June 4-5, 1989.
****
**** Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****
Because of the similarity between last week's Hong Kong protests and
the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, if you want to understand the most
likely outcome of the Hong Kong protests, look at the history of the
Tiananmen Square massacre, and examine the similarities and
differences.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests did not begin on June 4. They
began in early May, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests that launched the "May 4th Movement" on May
4, 1919. Throughout May 1989, the CCP watched Tiananmen Square with
growing alarm, because the pro-democracy protests were actually a
repudiation of the ideology of Socialism, Marxism and Communism.
In the perverse, delusional logic of the CCP, democracy is an
ideology, not a form of government. Furthermore, the CCP sees
democracy as an ideology in conflict with communism. So by the
beginning of June, the CCP was so alarmed that they had to crush the
protests, to prevent democracy from gaining an ideological victory.
The current pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong so far are on a
similar path. They're commemorating the 30th anniversary of the 1989
Tiananmen Square protests. As the number of protesters has grown into
the millions, the CCP in Beijing is seeing 1989 all over again. And
the pro-democracy protests are, once again, a repudiation of the
"communist" ideology promulgated by the CCP.
According to unnamed CCP sources speaking to Boxun.com, Xi Jinping has
already decided that "The situation in Hong Kong is in danger of
getting out of control," and that he will order a military response if
the situation worsens.
These sources say that the Southern Theater Command of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Hong Kong Garrison are awaiting orders
and prepared to fully respond to all possible scenarios that may arise
in Hong Kong.
Since 1997, the Hong Kong Garrison is a group of several thousand PLA
soldiers who are stationed in Hong Kong, but are meant to be
"invisible." They are confined to barracks, where they wear their
uniforms, but are not permitted to wear their uniforms in public.
They've never left their barracks in uniform in the 22 years they've
been stationed in Hong Kong, but they're prepared to emerge and take
military action if ordered to do so.
****
**** Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****
We've described the similarities with the 1989 Tiananmen Square
situation. However, there are significant differences as well.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre took place in Beijing, a region
tightly controlled by the CCP, where the international media was well
controlled, and was shut down quickly.
However, there's virtually no control of the international media in
Hong Kong. The CCP has canceled visas and deported journalists of
several publications, but the events of the last two week prove that
any violence in Hong Kong will immediately be known and broadcast
worldwide.
****
**** Southern China vs Northern China
****
However, there's a more important difference: The Tiananmen Square
massacre took place in Beijing in northern China, while Hong Kong is
in southern China.
Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese
civil wars. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the Communist
revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The massive
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian convert who
believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus, began
in the south and spread north.
Most people in the West do not make these connections, but you can be
certain that the paranoid officials in Beijing are well aware of the
dangers of a rebellion from the south that can spiral out of control
and travel north to swallow up Beijing.
Try playing around with the interactive "China strike map" from the
Hong Kong based China labor bulletin: https://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en
If you set the year to 2011, 2012, etc., you'll see that the number of
labor strikes is gradually increasing, from 184 in 2011 to 1702 in
2018. Furthermore, most of the strikes occur in southeast China,
which was the starting point of the unrest that led to the last two
massive Chinese civil wars.
This shows that there's already a level of unrest in southeast China,
and it's been growing steadily and relentlessly for years. Xi Jinping
is well aware of this.
Throughout China's millennia of history, there have been huge, massive
anti-government rebellions at regular intervals. In the last 200
years there have been the the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).
Today, China is overdue for the next massive anti-government
rebellion, and Xi Jinping is well aware that the Hong Kong
pro-democracy demonstrations could be the trigger.
Xi Jinping has another worry. There is no surer way to trigger a mass
rebellion in China than a failing economy. China's economy has
already taken a big hit from the new US tariffs, as many businesses
are relocating out of China to neighboring countries.
Hong Kong has always been China's portal to the world financial
system, and if Hong Kong become chaotic to the point that this portal
is essentially shut down, it will cause the economic failure that will
trigger the expected rebellion.
****
**** No good choices for Xi Jinping
****
So Xi Jinping is boxed in, with no good choices.
- Enacting the Extradition Law will cause more businessmen to
flee to protect themselves and their assets.
- Canceling the Extradition Law will embolden pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong and pro-independence activists in Taiwan.
- Violently stopping the pro-democracy demonstrations will bring
chaos to Hong Kong, and threaten it as a global financial portal.
- Allowing the pro-democracy demonstrations to continue unchecked
will risk triggering a rebellion starting in southern China.
It's hard to overestimate the shock felt in Hong Kong and Beijing over
the size of the pro-democracy demonstrations last week, and their
similarity to the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square.
The Chinese are running out of time in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they
know it. The survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution are almost all
gone now, and the younger generations are increasingly anti-communist
and pro-democracy and pro-independence. At the same time, China's own
economy is hugely unstable and under pressure from the US tariffs.
China's entire business model, which involves stealing intellectual
property from the West, is also under attack.
China cannot tolerate this situation much longer. For 30 years, China
has been conducting a vitriolic hate campaign against Japan, and has
been planning for war to annex Taiwan and exterminate the Japanese.
The Chinese do not want war with the US (because they like us), but
they've been preparing for it.
Carrie Lam's weepy apology was certainly not an act of heartfelt
atonement or reconciliation, since that's not what the CCP ever does.
Instead, it was an act of total desperation, an attempt to head off
the worst. Over the next few weeks and months, we'll see if she
succeeded.
John J. Xenakis is author of "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)"
Sources: South China Morning Post, Hong Kong and China Labor Bulletin, Hong Kong
and Reuters, 15-Jun-2019 and ChannelNewsAsia/AFP, 15-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 13-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 16-Jun-2019 and Hong Kong Free Press, 18-Jun-2019 and Taiwan News, 12-Jun-2019 and Boxun, 11-Jun-2019 and Inkstone, 3-Aug-2018
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Extradition Law,
Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Britain,
Tiananmen Square massacre, May 4th Movement,
People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Southern Theater Command, Hong Kong Garrison,
Taiping Rebellion, White Lotus Rebellion,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Communist Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
