Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Jul-2019 World View: Britain seizes Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria

Britain's Royal Marines have seized an Iranian oil tanker, the Grace
1, a "very large crude carrier" or VLCC, allegedly carrying Iranian
oil to Syria. The tanker would have been violating two different
sanctions -- the sanctions against Iran selling oil, and the sanctions
against Syria receiving oil.

• Path of Iran's Grace 1 oil supertanker (The Sun)

The geopolitical effects are that Syria will feel the immediate impact
of losing a crucial oil shipment, while tensions between Iran and the
West will be further inflamed.

According to a report in World Oil:

Quote: "Gibraltar didn’t say where the crude came from, but
shipping tracking data compiled by Bloomberg suggest the vessel
loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in mid-April. After
anchoring off the United Arab Emirates for several weeks, the ship
began a journey around the southern tip of Africa, passing Cape
Town in early June, rather than taking the more direct route
through the Suez Canal.

That route from Iran to Syria is about 23,300 km (14,500 mi),
compared with just 6,600 km via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. A ship
the size of the Grace 1, known as a Very Large Crude Carrier, or
VLCC, can’t pass through the canal fully loaded. The shorter route
would require it to discharge half its cargo, load it on to a
smaller ship or send the oil through the Sumed Pipeline, and pick
it up again in the Mediterranean.

Iran can’t pump oil through the pipeline, which spans Egypt from
the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, because the link is owned by
companies from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait and Qatar. The pipeline’s owners have not permitted the
transit of Iranian crude since August 2012."

Gibraltar is a British territory on Spain's southern tip that
overlooks the strait between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic
Ocean. Britain acquired the Gibraltar territory during the War of the
Spanish Succession (1704-1709), which was settled by the Treaty of
Utrecht of 1714.

Gibraltar has been a part of the Brexit negotiations. Media reports
usually say that there is only one land border between the UK and the
EU27 (the rest of the EU), but that's not true. There's another land
border -- between Spain and the British territory of Gibraltar. The
border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is highly contentious
because of fears that introducing customs checks on that border will
once again inflame "The Troubles," the centuries-old clash between the
indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the Scottish and English
invaders. However, there is no such concern with Gibraltar, and there
will be customs checks between Gibraltar and Spain (assuming that
Brexit actually occurs).

The Donald Trump administration has place extremely harsh sanctions on
Iran, and the current incident will certainly inflame tensions
further. In my opinion, Trump has been following a dual strategy with
Iran -- a short range strategy and a long-range strategy.

Since 2015, Iran has been using the billions of dollars they received
from the JCPOA to build up the IRGC and to fund military and terrorist
activities in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas).
Trump's short-range strategy was to cut off this flow of money, and
it's already been effective, since there are reports that Hezbollah
and Hamas are having financial problems.

The other part of the short-range strategy is to keep Iran from
doing stupid things like exploding oil tankers in Hormuz Strait
or shooting down drones. This whole song and dance about planning
a military strike and then calling it off ten minutes before launch
seems to have accomplished that strategy, at least so far.

Iran's younger generations, the ones that grew up after the 1979 civil
war, hate the hard-line geezers and are mostly pro-Western and
pro-American, and as the younger generations grow in size, while the
old hard-line geezers die off, Iran's policies are gradually changing.
So Trump's long-range strategy is to encourage that change of policy.

As far as I can tell, the European countries favor this policy, but
can't say so for domestic reasons. Thursday's seizure of the Iranian
oil tanker is likely to cause expressions of outrage from Iran, but
will probably not generate more than perfunctory political complaints
within the EU.

---- Sources:

-- Grace 1 supertanker / Iran / British forces seize oil tanker for
violating Syria sanctions
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/4/b...-sanctions
(WorldOil, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Eyes on Iran as Britain seizes oil tanker over Syria sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-midea...SKCN1TZ0GN
(Reuters, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Syria / Iran / U.K. Marines Seize Oil Tanker, Causing Diplomatic
Row With Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...e-to-syria
(BB, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Royal Marines and Gibraltar seize ship suspected of taking Iranian
oil to Syria
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/j...-sanctions
(Guardian, 4-Jul-2019)

---- Related:

** 20-Aug-13 World View -- Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e130820


** 4-Jan-19 World View -- Britain may establish a military base in South China Sea after Brexit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190104