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Generational Dynamics World View
** 21-Jul-2019 World View: War with Iran

(07-19-2019, 11:26 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Much of the debate on television on Friday was over the question
> of whether there would be full-scale war between Iran and either
> the US or the UK. In my opinion, the probability of such a war is
> extremely low, since Iran is in a generational Awakening era,
> following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the younger postwar
> generations are extremely hostile to the hardline geezers that
> survived the revolution.

(07-20-2019, 09:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The UK and the US are not in awakening eras. WWII started in
> noncrisis eras for many of the participants. As far as I can tell,
> only one side needs to be in a crisis era for a war to become a
> crisis war.

You're absolutely right. I was stating my opinion, and if it hadn't
been so late and I hadn't been sooooooooooooo sleepy, I would have
explained further.

As you suggest, there are politicians in both the US and UK who are
calling for military action against Iran, and if they have their way,
then there will be at least a military attack.

The whole subject of a war between two parties, one in a Crisis era
and the other in an Awakening era, has been really fascinating to me.
My favorite example is Napoleon's attack on Russia, where the Russians
cleared out of Moscow and let Napoleon's troops gorge themselves to
death.

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...olstoy.htm

So let's imagine what would have to happen to have a war between the
US/UK and Iran.

There would be some kind of military strike in retaliation for Iran's
actions, something like the cruise missile attack on al-Shayrat
Airbase in Syria in April 2017, as a response to al-Assad's use of
Sarin gas. That didn't end in war, and I don't think a similar attack
on Iran would either.

Another possibility is that the US or UK would send in special forces
to free the hostages and recapture the tanker. Since most of the
hostages are Indian, I wouldn't expect that. But if it did happen,
then the special forces would succeed or fail, but either way I
wouldn't expect either side to declare full-scale war.

Another possibility is the US could send in some of those 500 troops
that are now on the way to Saudi Arabia. That's possible, I guess,
but I consider the probability low.

Trump has previously made clear that he's being restrained in making a
military strike against Iran, so he's personally exhibiting Awakening
era behavior, even though the US is in a Crisis era. Iran is in an
Awakening era, so they're going to be restrained as well.

So putting all those random thoughts together, I consider the
probability of a war to extremely low, for several reasons, but the
main one is that Iran is in an Awakening era and will not want to do
anything that triggers a declaration of war by the US or UK. I expect
this situation to be resolved in some other way.

I would explain it some more, but it's late and I'm sooooooooooo
sleepy.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 07-20-2019, 11:02 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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