Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
** 06-Aug-2019 World View: Is China panicking?

Guest Wrote:> Just as Chinese goods are getting around tariffs by
> goods-laundering via 3rd party nations, they are getting our
> ag-goods via proxy. You can change the market numbers all you
> want, but a billion people still have to eat.


> BTW, now might be a good time to start retiring some of that debt
> - at the new lower price. Thanks, China

SubtoDT Wrote:> Yes, the food supply globally is not looking good.
> From the Daily Telegraph( I have a paid subscription):

Quote:>> “The worry is that a break beyond 7 could send the Chinese
>> currency into a vicious circle in which selling leads to more
>> selling,” said Ke Baili from Caixin.

>> Kyle Bass, a long-time China bear at Hayman Capital, said a “mass
>> exodus” of capital is already underway as political protest in
>> Hong Kong reaches crisis point and China’s debt-driven growth
>> model reaches the limits. “The collapse has just begun,” he
>> tweeted.

>> Most analysts say the move by the PBOC is a deliberate choice, but
>> that is hardly more reassuring for investors. It means that the
>> Chinese Communist Party is willing to risk a full-blown conflict
>> with Washington on every economic front. Beijing has reportedly
>> ordered state bodies to halt purchases of farm products from the
>> US at the same time.


> China needs huge amounts of food, and with half their pigs dead
> from disease this summer, they need to get protein from
> somewhere. Also, food prices are soaring higher due to shortages
> and plunging currency f/x. It's as if China wants their citizens
> to riot.

> I can't believe how quickly things have escalated between the US
> and the UK and South Korea and Japan in the last two weeks. All we
> need now is for the North Koreans to do something stupid.

Guest Wrote:> Talking to a good friend in Asia a few hours ago, he told me he
> has just cancelled all clothing orders in China and diverted them
> to Sri Lanka. 90% of his products are made in Asia for the US
> markets.

> He told me the Chinese manufacturers are going crazy and tens of
> thousands will be layed off within the next few weeks. Riding the
> Chinese wave for the last twenty years, many Chinese are mortgaged
> to the hilt as they have bought property for pension purposes.

> China has huge debt payments due in USD so that spells
> trouble. They must reckon that the one party state is better
> insulated from an angry populace whereas they see Trump as more
> exposed and up for re-election. It's a mistake in judgement that
> will backfire.

I've had a growing feeling from some time that the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) is approaching a state of total panic. And I'm using the
word "panic" in the Generational Dynamics sense of a financial panic,
or a "let's bomb Pearl Harbor" type of panic.

This is just a "feeling," but the events of the last week have made me
"feel" that this panic is reaching a fever pitch.

The nature of this panic comes from the fact that the CCP is
suddenly facing several existential crises that it has no
idea how to handle:
  • The US-China trade dispute is having effects well beyond
    increased costs, especially because the Huawei restrictions are
    affecting the entire region. The result could be a chain of
    bankruptcies and social unrest.

  • The Huawei restrictions are forcing the Chinese military
    off their game plan of intalling 5G around the world and controlling
    the entire internet.

  • The Hong Kong riots have gone on for nine weeks, and show
    no signs of stopping. The CCP has issued warning after warning,
    and they won't tolerate the riots much longer, but they're restrained
    because a violent intervention would cause enormous blowback,
    financially and geopolitically.

Each of these crises is existential in the sense that a bad outcome
would threaten the collapse of the CCP (something like the Soviet
communist party collapse in 1991, which haunts CCP officials every
day).

These are all ongoing crises. What's changed in the past few days,
and this is why I'm getting this "feeling" of panic, was the
devaluation of the yuan currency, which is a very big deal, and then
the quick revaluation, along with the usual accusations directed at
the US. The "feeling" I'm getting is one of desperation, that the CCP
doesn't know what to do next.

Add to that the fact that North Korea keeps launching short-range
missiles (and I don't buy the claim that this being done under orders
from Xi Jinping). Also there was a sharp global stock market
semi-crash.

All of this is just a "feeling" of panic. It might all disappear
tomorrow. But the problems listed above will not go away, and the CCP
has no solution for any of them.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2019, 05:30 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,797 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,385 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,659 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,215 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,321 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 7 Guest(s)