08-09-2019, 10:53 PM
*** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
****
![[Image: g190809b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190809b.jpg)
Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP)
Kashmir is a bitterly disputed region on the border between India and
Pakistan. It's one of the four or five extremely volatile regions in
the world where a local war could quickly spread into a larger
regional war or even a world war. So a large surge in tensions
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir in the last week is capturing
worldwide attention.
Two weeks ago, India sent tens or hundreds of thousands of troops into
the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir with no explanation.
It turned out that India deployed the vast army of troops to Kashmir
in anticipation of violence that was likely to occur after last week's
revocation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which makes Kashmir
a semi-autonomous state of India.
India did much more than send in troops. For the last few days,
Kashmir has been locked down and isolated. The streets are deserted
all day long, because of a strict curfew that requires everyone to
stay at home. All phone and internet lines have been shut down, in
order to prevent Kashmiris from communicating and planning a riot.
Indian officials are concerned about a large backlash, once the curfew
is lifted, and the events that occurred on Friday illustrate those
concerns. The curfew was temporarily lifted for Friday prayers.
Indian police used tear gas, pellets and live fire to fight back at
least 10,000 anti-Indian protesters in Srinagar, Kashmir's capital
city.
Indian officials are concerned about what will happen on Monday, when
there is a major Muslim festival of Eid Ul Azha. Eid Ul Azha
("Festival of the Sacrifice") is one of the holiest days on the Muslim
calendar, and it commemorates the willingness of Abraham to sacrifice
his son in obedience to Allah's command.
****
**** Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
****
The region's last generational crisis war was the massive 1947
Partition War between Muslims and Hindus that followed the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
An outcome of that war was that Kashmir was split into two, government
respectively by Pakistan and India. Indian-governed Kashmir is
populated mostly by Muslims. As a condition for giving control to
India, Article 370 was added to India's constitution, giving Kashmir
substantial autonomy over its own affairs. Importantly, another
article — 35a — also barred people outside the state from buying
property there to prevent India’s majority-Hindu population from
moving into Jammu and Kashmir and displacing the Muslims who live
there.
A possibly unintended consequence of these laws was that girls from
Kashmir could not marry men from outside Kashmir. The reason was that
residents of Jammu and Kashmir had exclusive rights to property and
state government jobs, among other privileges, and women marrying
non-residents stood to lose those benefits.
With the revocation of those laws, Kashmir is just another state
within India, equivalent to all the other states. Girls can now
freely marry outside of Kashmir, but the larger picture is Kashmir's
affairs are now decided in New Delhi rather than in Srinigar.
India's prime minister Narendra Modi has justified the revocation of
Article 370 by saying that it's harmed the people of Kashmir in the
last 70 years, and and that all it has done is to bring nepotism,
separatism, and terrorism. He said that the "historic" decision would
benefit all the people of Kashmir, and would benefit all of India.
It's not surprising that Modi revoked Article 370, since he has wanted
to do so for years, but many analysts are wondering about the timing -
why now?
According to some analysts, it's because of the Donald Trump
administration. The US is negotiating to remove all of its troops
from Afghanistan, and Modi may fear that this will fre up a new wave
of terrorists to flood into Kashmir, and saw a need to act
preemptively. Modi also may have been concerned by Trump's July
meeting with Inran Khan, at which Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir
problem for Pakistan and India.
****
**** Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370
****
![[Image: g190809c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190809c.jpg)
Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News)
Pakistani officials were caught by surprise by the revocation of
Article 370, and have been expressing fury. Officials in Pakistan
particularly point to the removal of restrictions on ownership of land
and property by outsiders, which were embedded in Article 370.
Removing these restrictions might lead to an influx of Hindu
immigration into Kashmir, diluting the Muslim population.
There were large anti-India protests in Pakistan's capital city
Islamabad, with 8,000 demonstrators in the streets. One young man was
quoted: "Yes, we are angry here. We don't want to fight. The last
option is to fight ... but if we have to, we will get Kashmir by the
sword, by ammunition and guns." Some Pakistani officials were calling
for military action against India.
Pakistan's close ally China said that it will "continue to support
Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests."
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan defused some of the anger by
saying that instead of military action, they will use diplomatic
action. Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic ties with India and
suspended trade, and will bring the issue to the UN Security Council.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Article 370, Srinagar, Eid Ul Azha, Festival of the Sacrifice,
Donald Trump, Imran Khan, Afghanistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
- Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
- Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370
****
**** Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status
****
Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP)
Kashmir is a bitterly disputed region on the border between India and
Pakistan. It's one of the four or five extremely volatile regions in
the world where a local war could quickly spread into a larger
regional war or even a world war. So a large surge in tensions
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir in the last week is capturing
worldwide attention.
Two weeks ago, India sent tens or hundreds of thousands of troops into
the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir with no explanation.
It turned out that India deployed the vast army of troops to Kashmir
in anticipation of violence that was likely to occur after last week's
revocation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which makes Kashmir
a semi-autonomous state of India.
India did much more than send in troops. For the last few days,
Kashmir has been locked down and isolated. The streets are deserted
all day long, because of a strict curfew that requires everyone to
stay at home. All phone and internet lines have been shut down, in
order to prevent Kashmiris from communicating and planning a riot.
Indian officials are concerned about a large backlash, once the curfew
is lifted, and the events that occurred on Friday illustrate those
concerns. The curfew was temporarily lifted for Friday prayers.
Indian police used tear gas, pellets and live fire to fight back at
least 10,000 anti-Indian protesters in Srinagar, Kashmir's capital
city.
Indian officials are concerned about what will happen on Monday, when
there is a major Muslim festival of Eid Ul Azha. Eid Ul Azha
("Festival of the Sacrifice") is one of the holiest days on the Muslim
calendar, and it commemorates the willingness of Abraham to sacrifice
his son in obedience to Allah's command.
****
**** Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India
****
The region's last generational crisis war was the massive 1947
Partition War between Muslims and Hindus that followed the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
An outcome of that war was that Kashmir was split into two, government
respectively by Pakistan and India. Indian-governed Kashmir is
populated mostly by Muslims. As a condition for giving control to
India, Article 370 was added to India's constitution, giving Kashmir
substantial autonomy over its own affairs. Importantly, another
article — 35a — also barred people outside the state from buying
property there to prevent India’s majority-Hindu population from
moving into Jammu and Kashmir and displacing the Muslims who live
there.
A possibly unintended consequence of these laws was that girls from
Kashmir could not marry men from outside Kashmir. The reason was that
residents of Jammu and Kashmir had exclusive rights to property and
state government jobs, among other privileges, and women marrying
non-residents stood to lose those benefits.
With the revocation of those laws, Kashmir is just another state
within India, equivalent to all the other states. Girls can now
freely marry outside of Kashmir, but the larger picture is Kashmir's
affairs are now decided in New Delhi rather than in Srinigar.
India's prime minister Narendra Modi has justified the revocation of
Article 370 by saying that it's harmed the people of Kashmir in the
last 70 years, and and that all it has done is to bring nepotism,
separatism, and terrorism. He said that the "historic" decision would
benefit all the people of Kashmir, and would benefit all of India.
It's not surprising that Modi revoked Article 370, since he has wanted
to do so for years, but many analysts are wondering about the timing -
why now?
According to some analysts, it's because of the Donald Trump
administration. The US is negotiating to remove all of its troops
from Afghanistan, and Modi may fear that this will fre up a new wave
of terrorists to flood into Kashmir, and saw a need to act
preemptively. Modi also may have been concerned by Trump's July
meeting with Inran Khan, at which Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir
problem for Pakistan and India.
****
**** Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370
****
Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News)
Pakistani officials were caught by surprise by the revocation of
Article 370, and have been expressing fury. Officials in Pakistan
particularly point to the removal of restrictions on ownership of land
and property by outsiders, which were embedded in Article 370.
Removing these restrictions might lead to an influx of Hindu
immigration into Kashmir, diluting the Muslim population.
There were large anti-India protests in Pakistan's capital city
Islamabad, with 8,000 demonstrators in the streets. One young man was
quoted: "Yes, we are angry here. We don't want to fight. The last
option is to fight ... but if we have to, we will get Kashmir by the
sword, by ammunition and guns." Some Pakistani officials were calling
for military action against India.
Pakistan's close ally China said that it will "continue to support
Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests."
Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan defused some of the anger by
saying that instead of military action, they will use diplomatic
action. Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic ties with India and
suspended trade, and will bring the issue to the UN Security Council.
Sources:
- Modi's vision of a Hindu India advanced by occupied Kashmir changes (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
- India revokes occupied Kashmir's special autonomy through rushed presidential decree (Dawn, Pakistan, 5-Aug-2019)
- Indian troops enforce Kashmir lockdown during Friday prayers (Dawn/AFP, 9-Aug-2019)
- China to 'uphold justice for Pakistan' on Kashmir issue (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
- Kashmir under curfew: Pre-dawn food run then rush home (AP, 9-Aug-2019)
- Thousands protest in occupied Kashmir over new status despite clampdown (Reuters, 9-Aug-2019)
- Pakistan suspends trade ties with India. Who gains, who loses from Imran Khan's move (India Today, 9-Aug-2019)
- What made Pakistan open its airspace for India (India Today, 16-Jul-2019)
- India / How Kashmir got Article 370: History retold (India Today, 8-Aug-2019)
- Narendra Modi tells India that “a new era has begun” after Kashmir power grab (Vox, 9-Aug-2019)
- James Carafano: India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute – Here's why things could get very messy, very fast (Fox News, 9-Aug-2019)
- Kashmir: Fury and frustration in Islamabad as thousands turn out to protest (Sky News, 9-Aug-2019)
- Kashmir dispute: Residents attend Friday prayers amid lockdown (BBC, 9-Aug-2019)
- India revokes Kashmir's special status: All the latest updates (Al-Jazeera, 9-Aug-2019)
- Modi’s revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy (Economist, 10-Aug-2019)
- You can read this article. An internet blackout means no-one in Indian-controlled Kashmir can (CNN, 9-Aug-2019)
- India revoked Kashmir’s special status. Here’s what you need to know about the contested province. (Washington Post, 7-Aug-2019)
- India / Pakistan / Kashmir: What to Know About the Disputed Region (Council On Foreign Relations, 8-Aug-2019)
Related Articles:
- Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians (18-Dec-2018)
- Number of Kashmir militants surges as India's 'Operation All-Out' fails (28-Sep-2018)
- India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police (09-Jul-2018)
- India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue (21-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Article 370, Srinagar, Eid Ul Azha, Festival of the Sacrifice,
Donald Trump, Imran Khan, Afghanistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
