07-07-2016, 10:10 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2016, 10:26 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia
****
![[Image: g160707b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160707b.jpg)
Erdogan addresses the United Nations General Assembly on Sept 24, 2014
In May, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who said that Turkey
would "increase the number of friends we have and decrease the number
of enemies." That was the precursor to a flurry of diplomatic
activity in June, where Turkey effected a reconciliation with both
Israel and Russia.
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey after Turkish warplanes
unexpectedly shot down a Russian warplane near the border with Syria,
after the Russian aircraft had been warned several times that it was
violating Turkish airspace. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
The sanctions have been harsh. Turkey was a major vacation for
Russian tourists, and tourism was cut off, resulting in $3.5 billion
in losses. Russia's exports to Turkey decreased by 43%, and imports
from Turkey decreased by 85%.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had repeatedly demanded that
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologize for shooting down
Russia's warplane, and also financially compensate the Russian pilot
who was killed. Erdogan has repeatedly used highly nationalistic
language to refuse to apologize.
On June 27, it was announced that Erdogan had sent a "letter of
apology" to Putin. It turned out that the apology was something of a
finesse -- Erdogan did not apologize for shooting down a Russian
warplane in Turkey's airspace, but he did apologize to the family of
the dead Russian pilot. Separately, Erdogan has also agreed to pay
compensation to the family.
In response, Russia lifted the restrictions on tourists visiting
Turkey, and there's talk of removing the sanctions on trade.
However, economic factors are only a partial explanation for
the reconciliation.
Although the shooting down of the Russian warplane triggered the
fierce split in relations, tensions had been building over the war in
Syria. Turkey was finding Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
increasingly intolerable because of his continuing genocidal massacres
of innocent Sunni civilians in Syria. Russia, on the other hand,
considered al-Assad to be a vital ally. Turkey had helped to fund
some moderate "rebel" opposition groups fighting against al-Assad,
while Russian warplanes targeted and bombed the groups that Turkey
supported, and avoided bombing militias from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
An even more serious problem is the role of the Kurds. The Kurds in
Turkey have been fighting an insurrection for decades, and Turkey
considers all the Kurds in the region to be working with the terrorist
group Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Both the United States
and Russia have supported the Kurds in Syria and Iraq in their
roles fighting ISIS.
Turkey has suffered a series of devastating terror attacks in the last
year, the worst of which was the attack on the Ataturk National
Airport in Istanbul on June 28. These attacks were perpetrated by
both ISIS and the PKK, but Turkey has become increasingly isolated
internationally, and has received little sympathy for these terror
attacks.
It was this situation that led to the promise by Turkey's prime
minister to "increase the number of friends we have and decrease the
number of enemies."
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Russia, India and Iran
will be allied with the West, while Turkey and the Sunni Arabs will be
allied with the Pakistan and China. ( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
So from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a complete
reconciliation between Turkey and Russia is very strongly
counter-trend, and so is unlikely to last long. This should not be
surprising in view of the generation crisis wars the two have fought
over the centuries. And it also should not be surprising in view of
the numerous issues that still deeply divide the two countries, in
both Syria and in the Caucasus. Jamestown and Tass (Moscow 27-June) and Hurriyet (Ankara 27-June) and CS Monitor
****
**** Turkey's reconciliation with Egypt appears to be unlikely
****
After reconciling with Russia and Israel, many are suggesting that
Turkey should now reconcile with Egypt, possibly even using Israel as
a mediator. Saudi Arabia, a staunch Turkish ally and a main backer of
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is interested in seeing the
two countries reconcile.
Turkey broke relations with Egypt as a result of the 2013 military
coup led by the current president, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, against
the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood (MB) government led by
Mohammed Morsi, putting Morsi and thousands of MB members in jail.
Once again, it was Turkey's prime minister Binali Yildirim who set the
tone:
[indent]<QUOTE>"From Russia to Israel, Egypt to Syria, Iraq to Iran,
EU countries to the U.S., we are determined to develop peaceful,
friendly and practical ties with everyone. We will keep doing
this."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Burhanettin Duran, a Turkish official, announced that a working
group would go to Egypt to discuss a plan to normalize relations.
However, the Muslim Brotherhood has close relations with Turkey's
governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan suggested earlier this week
that reconciliation with Egypt might not be possible while al-Sisi is
in power:
[indent]<QUOTE>"The problem with Egypt is an issue with its
administration, especially with its ruler. It is not possible for
us to say 'yes' to who tyrannizes the Morsi administration.
The context with Egypt is different from the approaches undertaken
with Russia and Israel. ... Sentences handed down to Morsi and his
friends have been based on fabrications.
We do not approve of these decisions. ... All of these people in
Egypt are our brothers and approving the stance taken against
Morsi and his friends would put us in an awkward position as
Muslims, as humans and as people who believe in
democracy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, AKP deputy leader Saban DiSli said that after the
reconciliation with Israel and Russia, "God willing ties with Egypt
will also ease." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Egyptian Streets and Al Bawaba (Palestine)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Israel, Istanbul,
Ataturk National Airport, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Binali Yildirim,
Vladimir Putin, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi, Burhanettin Duran,
Justice and Development Party, AKP, Saban DiSli
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia
- Turkey's reconciliation with Egypt appears to be unlikely
****
**** Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia
****
Erdogan addresses the United Nations General Assembly on Sept 24, 2014
In May, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who said that Turkey
would "increase the number of friends we have and decrease the number
of enemies." That was the precursor to a flurry of diplomatic
activity in June, where Turkey effected a reconciliation with both
Israel and Russia.
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey after Turkish warplanes
unexpectedly shot down a Russian warplane near the border with Syria,
after the Russian aircraft had been warned several times that it was
violating Turkish airspace. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)
The sanctions have been harsh. Turkey was a major vacation for
Russian tourists, and tourism was cut off, resulting in $3.5 billion
in losses. Russia's exports to Turkey decreased by 43%, and imports
from Turkey decreased by 85%.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had repeatedly demanded that
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologize for shooting down
Russia's warplane, and also financially compensate the Russian pilot
who was killed. Erdogan has repeatedly used highly nationalistic
language to refuse to apologize.
On June 27, it was announced that Erdogan had sent a "letter of
apology" to Putin. It turned out that the apology was something of a
finesse -- Erdogan did not apologize for shooting down a Russian
warplane in Turkey's airspace, but he did apologize to the family of
the dead Russian pilot. Separately, Erdogan has also agreed to pay
compensation to the family.
In response, Russia lifted the restrictions on tourists visiting
Turkey, and there's talk of removing the sanctions on trade.
However, economic factors are only a partial explanation for
the reconciliation.
Although the shooting down of the Russian warplane triggered the
fierce split in relations, tensions had been building over the war in
Syria. Turkey was finding Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
increasingly intolerable because of his continuing genocidal massacres
of innocent Sunni civilians in Syria. Russia, on the other hand,
considered al-Assad to be a vital ally. Turkey had helped to fund
some moderate "rebel" opposition groups fighting against al-Assad,
while Russian warplanes targeted and bombed the groups that Turkey
supported, and avoided bombing militias from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
An even more serious problem is the role of the Kurds. The Kurds in
Turkey have been fighting an insurrection for decades, and Turkey
considers all the Kurds in the region to be working with the terrorist
group Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Both the United States
and Russia have supported the Kurds in Syria and Iraq in their
roles fighting ISIS.
Turkey has suffered a series of devastating terror attacks in the last
year, the worst of which was the attack on the Ataturk National
Airport in Istanbul on June 28. These attacks were perpetrated by
both ISIS and the PKK, but Turkey has become increasingly isolated
internationally, and has received little sympathy for these terror
attacks.
It was this situation that led to the promise by Turkey's prime
minister to "increase the number of friends we have and decrease the
number of enemies."
As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Russia, India and Iran
will be allied with the West, while Turkey and the Sunni Arabs will be
allied with the Pakistan and China. ( "15-Jul-2015 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
So from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a complete
reconciliation between Turkey and Russia is very strongly
counter-trend, and so is unlikely to last long. This should not be
surprising in view of the generation crisis wars the two have fought
over the centuries. And it also should not be surprising in view of
the numerous issues that still deeply divide the two countries, in
both Syria and in the Caucasus. Jamestown and Tass (Moscow 27-June) and Hurriyet (Ankara 27-June) and CS Monitor
****
**** Turkey's reconciliation with Egypt appears to be unlikely
****
After reconciling with Russia and Israel, many are suggesting that
Turkey should now reconcile with Egypt, possibly even using Israel as
a mediator. Saudi Arabia, a staunch Turkish ally and a main backer of
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is interested in seeing the
two countries reconcile.
Turkey broke relations with Egypt as a result of the 2013 military
coup led by the current president, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, against
the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood (MB) government led by
Mohammed Morsi, putting Morsi and thousands of MB members in jail.
Once again, it was Turkey's prime minister Binali Yildirim who set the
tone:
[indent]<QUOTE>"From Russia to Israel, Egypt to Syria, Iraq to Iran,
EU countries to the U.S., we are determined to develop peaceful,
friendly and practical ties with everyone. We will keep doing
this."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Burhanettin Duran, a Turkish official, announced that a working
group would go to Egypt to discuss a plan to normalize relations.
However, the Muslim Brotherhood has close relations with Turkey's
governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan suggested earlier this week
that reconciliation with Egypt might not be possible while al-Sisi is
in power:
[indent]<QUOTE>"The problem with Egypt is an issue with its
administration, especially with its ruler. It is not possible for
us to say 'yes' to who tyrannizes the Morsi administration.
The context with Egypt is different from the approaches undertaken
with Russia and Israel. ... Sentences handed down to Morsi and his
friends have been based on fabrications.
We do not approve of these decisions. ... All of these people in
Egypt are our brothers and approving the stance taken against
Morsi and his friends would put us in an awkward position as
Muslims, as humans and as people who believe in
democracy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, AKP deputy leader Saban DiSli said that after the
reconciliation with Israel and Russia, "God willing ties with Egypt
will also ease." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Egyptian Streets and Al Bawaba (Palestine)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Israel, Istanbul,
Ataturk National Airport, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Binali Yildirim,
Vladimir Putin, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi, Burhanettin Duran,
Justice and Development Party, AKP, Saban DiSli
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
