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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Syria regime and Russia major victory in Idlib, capturing Khan Sheikhoun
  • Syria attacks Turkey's military convoy
  • Russia admits its ground troops are fighting in Idlib
  • Turkey and Russia on a military collision path
  • Syria: The crucible of a major Mideast war
  • Other major geopolitical issues

****
**** Syria regime and Russia major victory in Idlib, capturing Khan Sheikhoun
****


[Image: g190822b.jpg]
An Arab cartoon expressing the view that Vladimir Putin blindly bombs wherever Bashar al-Assad tells him, making Putin the puppet of puppetmaster al-Assad (Mideast Monitor)

The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, supported by Russia's
army and airforce, has achieved a major victory in al-Assad's campaign
to recapture Idlib province from anti-Assad rebels. This comes after
weeks when the Idlib war was at a standstill and frozen in place.

Syrian and Russian forces entered the strategic town of Khan Sheikhoun
on Wednesday, after capturing another strategically important town,
Al-Hobeit, last week. These two towns lie on the key M5 highway that
connects Damascus with the northern city of Aleppo. Anti-Assad forces
have been in control of these towns since they were captured in 2014,
so their recapture represents a major symbolic and strategic victory
for al-Assad.

As the Syrian and Russian forces closed in, all the "moderate"
anti-Assad rebel fighters, many of them supported by Turkey, withdrew.
Reports indicate that they moved north and east, towards the Turkey
border, to try to prevent the Syrian and Russian forces from
proceeding further.

Another group of anti-Assad rebels, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front) has issued a statement
that the withdrawal is a "redeployment" of its fighters to the
southern part of Khan Sheikhoun from where they would continue to
defend their territory.

There are over three million people in Idlib, most of whom fled there
from Bashar al-Assad's violence in other regions. About 70,000 are
anti-Assad rebels, and rest are families of men, women and children.
Bashar al-Assad considers all three million of them to be
"terrorists," and are to be exterminated. He's made it pretty clear
that this is his intention, although has hasn't specifically used the
word "exterminated."

Now Idlib is being bombed and attacked by Syrian regime and Russian
forces as happened in previous "de-escalation zones," including
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, but there is no other place to flee to. This
is the last major region for al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing
of his Arab Sunni political opposition. Al-Assad is particularly
targeting hospitals, schools and markets, in order to kill as many
women and children as possible. However, al-Assad has not yet begun
using chemical weapons -- chlorine gas, phosphorous and Sarin gas --
as he did regularly in other regions.

Many families in Khan Sheikhoun and the surrounding villages are
afraid of leaving their homes for fear of losing their land, their
crops, their animals, and their belongings. Tens of thousands of
families have left their homes in the last two days alone, and are
fleeing north and west toward the border with Turkey. The regions
closer to the Turkey border are becoming more and more crowded, since
Turkey, which already hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees, has closed
the border. At a time of his choosing, al-Assad and his Russian
puppets will be able mop up the crowds of civilian families all at
once.

****
**** Syria attacks Turkey's military convoy
****


As a result of the so-called "Astana process" last year, Turkey and
Russia agreed that Idlib was a "de-escalation zone," and Turkey would
police it, and take the guns away from the anti-Assad rebels. Turkey
has set up a dozen small military bases (observation posts) around the
region, as part of that agreement, but has not been successful in
disarming the anti-Assad rebels.

These Turkish observation posts have been attacked repeatedly by
artillery from the Syrian army. Turkey has repeatedly demanded that
Russia keep al-Assad under control, but Russia has been unable or
unwilling to do so.

The situation became much more alarming on August 17 when, for the
first time, Syrian warplanes targeted a Turkish military convoy on its
way to an observation post near Khan Sheikhoun. Three civilians were
killed and 12 wounded.

Turkey's Defense Ministry blamed the Russians, saying that Turkey had
supplied the Russians with advance information on the route that the
convoy would be taking. However, an al-Assad spokesman said that the
convoy was attacked on purpose, because "Turkish vehicles loaded with
munitions... are heading toward Khan Sheikhoun to help the
terrorists." In other words, Syria used the information to locate the
convoy, and targeted it on purpose.

None of this is surprising. The UN is conducting an investgation of
Syria and Russia for targeting hospitals and schools. The UN had
supplied the Syrians and Russians with the coordinates of the hospital
and school in Idlib, so that they would not be targeted by warplanes.
Instead, the Syrians and Russians used those coordinates to target
schools and hospitals on purpose.

****
**** Russia admits its ground troops are fighting in Idlib
****


During 2015, I repeatedly reported that the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad was near collapse, after al-Assad's army suffered a
number of significant major setbacks, and was being crippled by
massive desertions. ( "8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse"
)

At that time, al-Assad was saved by the massive intervention by
Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. It's been known that Iran's troops from
the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been fighting alongside
al-Assad's troops in Syria. It's been known that Hezbollah troops,
under orders from their Iranian puppetmasters, have also been fighting
alongside al-Assad's troops in Syria.

Russia's warplanes have been an essential part of al-Assad's slaughter
of his Sunni Arab enemies. But Russia has always denied that Russian
troops were fighting in Syria, even though numerous reports said that
they were.

However, during a press conference on Tuesday, Russia's foreign
minister Sergei Lavrov finally confirmed that "There are Russian
soldiers on the ground in the Syrian province of Idlib."

He added that Russia would respond to any attack on its soldiers in
Syria. That would be a warning to Russia's supposed ally, Turkey.

It's not surprising al-Assad's army needs even more help. Syria is in
a generational Awakening/Unraveling era, and the people have little
will to fight another war. The civil war in Syria should have fizzled
years ago, but it's continuing because Bashar al-Assad is a
psychopathic monster, and because he's received massive support from
Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

****
**** Turkey and Russia on a military collision path
****


There's nothing new here. Syria and Russia have always used the
"peace talks" as a cover to hide the continued genocide, and they're
doing it again in Idlib.

Turkey has played along, but there are two things that would change
that: attacks by Syrian or Russian warplanes on Turkish forces, and a
massive humanitarian disaster that would push hundreds of thousands of
people across the border into Turkey.

Bashar al-Assad has said repeatedly that he intends to take control of
Idlib province. There is absolutely no reason to doubt his
intentions, or that he intends to do it using the same methods he used
in Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and previous de-escalation zones: targeting
markets, schools, hospitals and residences with barrel bombs laden
with metal, chlorine gas, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons
targeting innocent Sunni women and children, and using Sarin gas to
kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Arab political
opponents to be cockroaches to be exterminated.

The first warplane attack on Turkish forces occurred four days ago.
As al-Assad's Syrian forces continue to move north, they're going to
encounter more Turkish observation posts (military bases), and there
are going to be more convoys to attack. If such an attack occurs
again, Turkey may attempt to shoot down the warplane with a surface to
air missile.

As Syria and Russia continue their attacks on civilians in Idlib, and
push them farther north and east to the border with Syria, the
humanitarian situation with worsen. Hundreds of thousands of families
have already been forced to flee their homes and head for Turkey's
border. The United Nations has for months been warning of the
potential of one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in history.

The point is that all of these activities are pointing towards a
military clash between Turkey versus the Syrian regime and Russia.

Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite, and Syria's last generational
crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war between the Shia Alawites
versus the Sunnis, including the ethnic Turkmens, climaxing in
February, 1982. So there's a great deal of animus between the
Alawites and the Turks.

Turkey and Russia may be having a marriage of convenience at the
present time, but they are no friends, as I described in "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
.

****
**** Syria: The crucible of a major Mideast war
****


As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.

It is 100% certain that Turkey and Russia will be at war. The only
remaining questions are the timing and scenario.

I've assumed that the most likely scenario for the start of a major
war in the Mideast would be Israelis versus Palestinians and other
Arabs. However, as Israel has developed alliances with Egypt, Jordan,
United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, that scenario has
seemed less likely.

We now see a new scenario growing more likely, based on the following
observations:
  • The cartoon at the beginning of this article portrays an Arab
    view that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is the puppet and Bashar
    al-Assad is the puppetmaster. This sems counterintuitive until you
    realize that Putin desperately wants to keep the Tartus naval base,
    and the Hmeimim airbase, both in Syria, that al-Assad gave him in
    return for his help. Whatever the reason, it's clear that Putin is
    committed to full military support for al-Assad. If Putin doesn't do
    as he's told, al-Assad will throw Russia out.

  • Iran is also committed to full military support for al-Assad,
    because Iran wants to establish control of a swath of land all along
    the "Shia Crescent," from Iran, through Iraq, through Syria, and then
    on to Lebanon in one direction, and the Mediterranean Sea in another
    direction.

  • Iran is the puppetmaster controlling and funding Lebanon's
    Hezbollah terror group, and so Hezbollah is also committed to full
    military support for al-Assad.

  • Turkey has observation posts in Idlib, and al-Assad will attack
    them, claiming that they support "terrorists." Russia has ground
    troops in Idlib, and has warned Turkey that Russia would respond to
    any attack on its soldiers in Syria.

  • Saudi Arabia has supported some anti-Assad rebel groups in the
    past, and may join Turkey in Syria, fighting against al-Assad.

  • Turkey is a historic enemy of both al-Assad's Shia/Alawites and
    Orthodox Christian Russia, so they're headed for war anyway.

This suggests a possible scenario where a military clash begins in
Syria between Turkey and Russia, and spreads to a regional or larger
war. This scenario is not certain, of course, but in view of
centuries of wars between Turkey and Russia, it's certainly plausible.

****
**** Other major geopolitical issues
****


As the alignment of nations in a future Mideast war becomes clearer,
there are still a number of questions about how the nations of Europe
will line up.

Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Greece all have different and
sometimes conflicting interests in the Mideast, and these differences
could expand into clashes. Within Europe itself, there are sharp
differences between North and South, and between East and West.
Recall, for example, that one of the major reasons for Brexit is that
many Britons objected to immigrants -- not the Muslim immigrants from
Syria but the Christian immigrants from Poland and Hungary. And, of
course, the Balkan nations are a hotbed of anger and hostility.

Meanwhile, I continue to be absolutely astonished that, after hearing
politicians for decades say "Never again!", referring to the Nazi
Holocaust against the Jews, that there are now three Holocausts
currently in progress, in three different countries, all targeting
Sunni Muslims:
  • Syria's Shia/Alawite leader Bashar al-Assad, supported by
    Orthodox Christian Russia, is committing genocide and ethnic cleansing
    against Arab Sunni Muslims in Syria.

  • Buddhist Myanmar (Burma) seems to have successfully completed its
    genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas.

  • China is commiting genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of
    over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkistan
    (Xinjiang Province).

Something new and astonishing occurs every day.

****
**** Sources
****


Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Khan Sheikhoun, Al-Hobeit,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Astana process,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas, phosphorous, ammonia,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon,
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Poland, Hungary

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Tur - by John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2019, 09:57 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
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