09-01-2019, 08:34 PM
*** 2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
****
![[Image: g190901b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190901b.jpg)
Israeli soldiers with artillery units near the country’s border with Lebanon (Guardian)
Israel's army fired hundreds of artillery shells into southern Lebanon
on Sunday, in response to a Hezbollah attack, launching two or three
anti-tank missiles into an Israeli military base in northern Israel.
There were no casualties on either side.
Analysts are calling the cross-border shelling the worst hostilities
between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah since the end of the 2006 war
between them.
Israel's army along the Lebanon border has been on high alert all
week, since Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah promised
retaliation for last week's drone strikes by Israel into targets in
Beirut, Lebanon's capital city.
It now appears that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants a war, and that
the exchange of fire was just for show for domestic audiences.
****
**** Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
****
In my article two days ago, I quoted a report from Debka saying that
the drone attack was was actually a targeted assassination, targeting
Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is the Iranian
commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reports to.
A web site reader has pointed out an alternative narrative that
differs from the Debka report. As I often point out, Debka reports
are based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but they
sometimes gets things wrong, and apparently Debka may have gotten the
Beirut drone attack quite wrong.
According to the report from the Metula News Agency, the drone attacks
in Beirut were targeting a particular component, supplied by Iran, for
building guided missiles, in particular an eight-ton Iranian
propulsion fuel mixer. According to the report (translation):
<QUOTE>"The industrial mixer in question was to be used to
prepare missile propulsion fuel to improve their performance and
increase their accuracy. It was supposed to be part of the
Iran-Hezbollah program to modify the tens of thousands of
primitive rockets in its possession in order to turn them into
precision missiles.
The equipment arrived from Iran was deposited in a storage place
between residential buildings to dissuade the Israelis trying to
destroy them. Hezbollah planned to take them to a safe place
during the current week. ...
These devices are essential to the rocket transformation program,
according to the confession of a Shiite militiaman I met on site
yesterday (Tuesday) while going to observe the place of the main
explosion. If the mixer can be repaired or exchanged within a few
weeks, the electronic control unit, packed with expensive
components, will not be available for a few months. This, as long
as it can be routed from Iran escaping the raids of the Israelis,
who obviously know everything that happens here in Syria, Iraq and
Iran, and who choose the best time to destroy equipment likely to
disturb them."<END QUOTE>
The Metula report goes on to deny other claims in the Debka report,
particularly the claim that one of the drones crashed after a boy
threw a rock at it.
If the Metula report is correct, then it must be a major embarrasment
to Debka that they got almost every detail of the story completely
wrong.
Hezbollah has thousands of unguided rockets, but few guided missiles.
Israel has managed so far to thwart every attempt by Iran to supply
Hezbollah with guided missiles.
****
**** Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
****
Most journalists are comparing the situation today to the beginning of
the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near
Israel's border with Lebanon. Israel went into a total panic, and
rushed into war within four hours. There was no clear objective.
Actually there was no objective at all, and no plan. The stated plans
and objectives changed on a daily, sometimes hourly basis. Initially,
Israel was going to use only air power. When that failed, they sent
in troops.
While Israel was in a generational Crisis era, Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era, and really didn't want to fight a war. I
discussed this at length in 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I quoted Lebanese President Émile
Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the
1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse
possibility than Israeli bombers.
So that explains why Lebanon and Hezbollah didn't want to fight in
2006. But why did Israel go into a state of chaotic panic? This
panic is actually explained by the Generational Dynamics "58-Year
Hypothesis."
The 58-year Hypothesis says that when some sort of calamitous event
occurs, something so horrific that it traumatizes the entire
population, adults and children alike, then the population will panic
in some way exactly 58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old
children at the time of the calamitous event all retire or die or lose
power, all at once, 58 years calamitous event, and it's this cohort of
people who panic, because they suddenly realize that they'll be gone
and the calimitous event could happen again, because they won't be
around to prevent it. The calimitous event has to be non-political,
and one that was preventable but not prevented, and the panic comes
from a fear that it will be unprevented once more.
The 58-year Hypothesis is reasonable, since it approximates the length
of the active life of a cohort of people born in a given year, and
it's supported by a lot of anecdotal evidence. There have now been so
many examples of anecdotal evidence, that it might now be reasonable
to call it the "58-Year Law."
In the case we're discussing, 2006 Israeli-Lebanon war occurred 58
years after the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
That actually explains why Israel totally panicked and pursued the war
that turned into a disaster for both Lebanon and Israel. There was a
cohort of people who were afraid of a major new war between Jews and
Arabs, and they acted on those fears.
After the war ended, Lebanon appeared to be descending into
chaos. Violence was increasing, and analysts and politicians around
the world openly expressed fear of a major civil war in Lebanon
between government (anti-Syrian) forces and (pro-Syrian) Hizbollah.
This fear was almost universal, among international media, analysts
and politicians.
I wrote that the generational analysis of Lebanon had not changed, and
that a civil war at that time was impossible. I wrote that there would
be a major political battle and that, at some point, "a political
winner would be declared -- either the current government or
Hizbollah. But there won't be a civil war." That was the generational
prediction, and it turned out to be true. Late in 2008, I received
the following e-mail message from a web site reader:
<QUOTE>"I am very impressed with your site, especially when
looking at some of your past predictions. I was trapped in Lebanon
during the fighting and everyone was in great fear that a civil
war was in progress. You predicted that it would fizzle out, and
it did."<END QUOTE>
That brings us up to today, and Sunday's border clash between
Hezbollah and Israel's army.
Numerous journalists have been expressing anxiety that the border
clashes would trigger a new war, like the abduction of the two
soldiers in 2006. Well first off, the Israelis had learned their
lessons from the 2006 war, and were certainly never going to allow
themselves to panic again. They were completely crazy in 2006, but
less crazy today. And Lebanon is still in a generational Awakening
era, so neither side wants a war, and the cross-border shelling
fizzled quickly.
Sources:
Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Émile Geamil Lahoud,
Sabra, Shatila, 58-year hypothesis
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
- Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
- Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
****
**** Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006
****
Israeli soldiers with artillery units near the country’s border with Lebanon (Guardian)
Israel's army fired hundreds of artillery shells into southern Lebanon
on Sunday, in response to a Hezbollah attack, launching two or three
anti-tank missiles into an Israeli military base in northern Israel.
There were no casualties on either side.
Analysts are calling the cross-border shelling the worst hostilities
between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah since the end of the 2006 war
between them.
Israel's army along the Lebanon border has been on high alert all
week, since Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah promised
retaliation for last week's drone strikes by Israel into targets in
Beirut, Lebanon's capital city.
It now appears that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants a war, and that
the exchange of fire was just for show for domestic audiences.
****
**** Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components
****
In my article two days ago, I quoted a report from Debka saying that
the drone attack was was actually a targeted assassination, targeting
Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is the Iranian
commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reports to.
A web site reader has pointed out an alternative narrative that
differs from the Debka report. As I often point out, Debka reports
are based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but they
sometimes gets things wrong, and apparently Debka may have gotten the
Beirut drone attack quite wrong.
According to the report from the Metula News Agency, the drone attacks
in Beirut were targeting a particular component, supplied by Iran, for
building guided missiles, in particular an eight-ton Iranian
propulsion fuel mixer. According to the report (translation):
<QUOTE>"The industrial mixer in question was to be used to
prepare missile propulsion fuel to improve their performance and
increase their accuracy. It was supposed to be part of the
Iran-Hezbollah program to modify the tens of thousands of
primitive rockets in its possession in order to turn them into
precision missiles.
The equipment arrived from Iran was deposited in a storage place
between residential buildings to dissuade the Israelis trying to
destroy them. Hezbollah planned to take them to a safe place
during the current week. ...
These devices are essential to the rocket transformation program,
according to the confession of a Shiite militiaman I met on site
yesterday (Tuesday) while going to observe the place of the main
explosion. If the mixer can be repaired or exchanged within a few
weeks, the electronic control unit, packed with expensive
components, will not be available for a few months. This, as long
as it can be routed from Iran escaping the raids of the Israelis,
who obviously know everything that happens here in Syria, Iraq and
Iran, and who choose the best time to destroy equipment likely to
disturb them."<END QUOTE>
The Metula report goes on to deny other claims in the Debka report,
particularly the claim that one of the drones crashed after a boy
threw a rock at it.
If the Metula report is correct, then it must be a major embarrasment
to Debka that they got almost every detail of the story completely
wrong.
Hezbollah has thousands of unguided rockets, but few guided missiles.
Israel has managed so far to thwart every attempt by Iran to supply
Hezbollah with guided missiles.
****
**** Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
****
Most journalists are comparing the situation today to the beginning of
the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near
Israel's border with Lebanon. Israel went into a total panic, and
rushed into war within four hours. There was no clear objective.
Actually there was no objective at all, and no plan. The stated plans
and objectives changed on a daily, sometimes hourly basis. Initially,
Israel was going to use only air power. When that failed, they sent
in troops.
While Israel was in a generational Crisis era, Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era, and really didn't want to fight a war. I
discussed this at length in 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I quoted Lebanese President Émile
Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the
1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse
possibility than Israeli bombers.
So that explains why Lebanon and Hezbollah didn't want to fight in
2006. But why did Israel go into a state of chaotic panic? This
panic is actually explained by the Generational Dynamics "58-Year
Hypothesis."
The 58-year Hypothesis says that when some sort of calamitous event
occurs, something so horrific that it traumatizes the entire
population, adults and children alike, then the population will panic
in some way exactly 58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old
children at the time of the calamitous event all retire or die or lose
power, all at once, 58 years calamitous event, and it's this cohort of
people who panic, because they suddenly realize that they'll be gone
and the calimitous event could happen again, because they won't be
around to prevent it. The calimitous event has to be non-political,
and one that was preventable but not prevented, and the panic comes
from a fear that it will be unprevented once more.
The 58-year Hypothesis is reasonable, since it approximates the length
of the active life of a cohort of people born in a given year, and
it's supported by a lot of anecdotal evidence. There have now been so
many examples of anecdotal evidence, that it might now be reasonable
to call it the "58-Year Law."
In the case we're discussing, 2006 Israeli-Lebanon war occurred 58
years after the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
That actually explains why Israel totally panicked and pursued the war
that turned into a disaster for both Lebanon and Israel. There was a
cohort of people who were afraid of a major new war between Jews and
Arabs, and they acted on those fears.
After the war ended, Lebanon appeared to be descending into
chaos. Violence was increasing, and analysts and politicians around
the world openly expressed fear of a major civil war in Lebanon
between government (anti-Syrian) forces and (pro-Syrian) Hizbollah.
This fear was almost universal, among international media, analysts
and politicians.
I wrote that the generational analysis of Lebanon had not changed, and
that a civil war at that time was impossible. I wrote that there would
be a major political battle and that, at some point, "a political
winner would be declared -- either the current government or
Hizbollah. But there won't be a civil war." That was the generational
prediction, and it turned out to be true. Late in 2008, I received
the following e-mail message from a web site reader:
<QUOTE>"I am very impressed with your site, especially when
looking at some of your past predictions. I was trapped in Lebanon
during the fighting and everyone was in great fear that a civil
war was in progress. You predicted that it would fizzle out, and
it did."<END QUOTE>
That brings us up to today, and Sunday's border clash between
Hezbollah and Israel's army.
Numerous journalists have been expressing anxiety that the border
clashes would trigger a new war, like the abduction of the two
soldiers in 2006. Well first off, the Israelis had learned their
lessons from the 2006 war, and were certainly never going to allow
themselves to panic again. They were completely crazy in 2006, but
less crazy today. And Lebanon is still in a generational Awakening
era, so neither side wants a war, and the cross-border shelling
fizzled quickly.
Sources:
- Israel and Hezbollah trade cross-border fire for first time in years (Guardian, London, 1-Sep-2019)
- Hezbollah and Israel trade fire near Lebanese-Israeli border, stoking fears of an escalating battle (LATimes, 1-Sep-2019)
- Hezbollah fires into Israel, IDF responds, as tension keeps mounting (Jerusalem Post, 1-Sep-2019)
- Hezbollah Missiles Hit Israeli Base, Military Vehicle on Lebanese Border; No Casualties (Haaretz, Israel, 1-Sep-2019)
- Israel, Hezbollah exchange fire at Lebanon border (Al-Jazeera, 1-Sep-2019)
- Analysis of Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon (in French) (Metula News Agency, 28-Aug-2019)
Related articles:
- Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend (31-Aug-2019)
- How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
- Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Émile Geamil Lahoud,
Sabra, Shatila, 58-year hypothesis
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
