09-03-2019, 08:49 PM
** 03-Sep-2019 World View: Young people rioting in Hong Kong
I've always thought of rioting as a "young man's game," but you make a
good point that the Hong Kong protesters seem exceptionally young, as
if it were a second turning Awakening era, like America in the 1960s,
or like the recent anti-government riots in Iran.
I think that it can be thought of as an Awakening era following the
Hong Kong handover in 1997. If we think of the handover as a kind of
"crisis climax," then the first turning Recovery era was spent by
everyone trying to adjust to the Beijing government. Now the
generation of kids growing up after the handover are coming of age and
making themselves heard as in every Awakening era, as in America in
the 1960s.
We've seen from the 58-year Hypothesis that we can have several
"turning timelines" going on at once. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic
led to the 1976 Swine Flu false panic. The 1929 global financial
panic led to the 1987 false financial panic. The 1945 nuking of
Hiroshima led to the 2003 WMD panic and the Iraq war, and the start of
the fourth turning. All of these timelines are going on
simultaneously.
So the interesting question is whether all of these 58-year timelines
have identifiable turnings. Let's take the 2018 Spanish Flu pandemic
as an example. I'm just guessing here, but during the first turning
Recovery era, which would run through the 1920s, I assume that
government agencies and medical organizations would be taking steps to
prevent a new pandemic. But would there also be something
corresponding a second turning Awakening era? There were all sorts of
left-wing riots and violence during the 1930s, but were any of them
motivated by anti-government protests that they weren't being
sufficiently protected from the flu? I don't know, but it would be an
interesting thing for a college student to investigate for his thesis.
So anyway we have an Awakening-type era going on in Hong Kong today,
22 years after the handover, and young people are protesting.
There's another reason for young people in Hong Kong to panic. They
know that the "one country, two systems" agreement expires in 2047,
well within the lifetimes of Hong Kong's young people, and then they
will lose all their special rights and just become fully subject to
the CCP bashing. That would be enough to make anyone panic.
(09-03-2019, 07:52 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > China apparently announced that they were ready to intervene
> militarily. There was some mention, I'm not sure on whose part,
> that the Hong Kong basic law permitted Hong Kong to request
> emergency help from China. I'm not sure whether that means they
> would wait for Lam to ask for the military, or whether they were
> saying they might just go in and quash the protests.
> In the photos I have seen, all the protesters at this point are
> young people. To me, this looks more like a 2T protest than a 4T
> protest. John, is there any precedent for 4T crises to look like
> that in the early stages?
I've always thought of rioting as a "young man's game," but you make a
good point that the Hong Kong protesters seem exceptionally young, as
if it were a second turning Awakening era, like America in the 1960s,
or like the recent anti-government riots in Iran.
I think that it can be thought of as an Awakening era following the
Hong Kong handover in 1997. If we think of the handover as a kind of
"crisis climax," then the first turning Recovery era was spent by
everyone trying to adjust to the Beijing government. Now the
generation of kids growing up after the handover are coming of age and
making themselves heard as in every Awakening era, as in America in
the 1960s.
We've seen from the 58-year Hypothesis that we can have several
"turning timelines" going on at once. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic
led to the 1976 Swine Flu false panic. The 1929 global financial
panic led to the 1987 false financial panic. The 1945 nuking of
Hiroshima led to the 2003 WMD panic and the Iraq war, and the start of
the fourth turning. All of these timelines are going on
simultaneously.
So the interesting question is whether all of these 58-year timelines
have identifiable turnings. Let's take the 2018 Spanish Flu pandemic
as an example. I'm just guessing here, but during the first turning
Recovery era, which would run through the 1920s, I assume that
government agencies and medical organizations would be taking steps to
prevent a new pandemic. But would there also be something
corresponding a second turning Awakening era? There were all sorts of
left-wing riots and violence during the 1930s, but were any of them
motivated by anti-government protests that they weren't being
sufficiently protected from the flu? I don't know, but it would be an
interesting thing for a college student to investigate for his thesis.
So anyway we have an Awakening-type era going on in Hong Kong today,
22 years after the handover, and young people are protesting.
There's another reason for young people in Hong Kong to panic. They
know that the "one country, two systems" agreement expires in 2047,
well within the lifetimes of Hong Kong's young people, and then they
will lose all their special rights and just become fully subject to
the CCP bashing. That would be enough to make anyone panic.
