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Generational Dynamics World View
** 04-Sep-2019 World View: Hong Kong's secondary cycle

(09-04-2019, 01:16 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Okay, so there's a climax in 1997 for Hong Kong, but it was
> peaceful because it happened in an unraveling instead of in a
> crisis era. To the younger generation, that makes no difference,
> because they don't remember whether climaxes are peaceful or not.

> So the younger generation is rebelling against the "high"
> following 1997; they're tired of the mainland rule and want full
> democracy. I could see that.

> And they aren't being coopted by the previous generation of
> idealists, because the cycle was disrupted in 1997?

> What I'm trying to figure out is whether these protests fizzle or
> precipitate a crisis. If Beijing steps in militarily, do they
> successfully suppress it the way authoritarian governments seem to
> be able to suppress awakening rebellions? Or does it set off a
> full scale revolt, in which southern China would
> participate?

Jumping ahead to the final answer, the Hong Kong protests are kids
having fun, with no desire for war or a violent coup. If there's a
full-scale revolt, it will come from southern China, perhaps triggered
by the Hong Kong protests. However, even if that doesn't happen, the
Hong Kong protests won't fizzle.

For example America's anti Vietnam war protests in the 1960s-70s
continued for 15 years. So the Hong Kong protests won't just fizzle,
but could continue for many years, unless the CCP stops them by force.

However, there's an important distinction. America's anti Vietnam war
protests could reach a natural climax -- Nixon resigns and the war
ends.

But there's no similar climax possible for the Hong Kong protests.
Even if Carrie Lam steps down, it wouldn't make any difference. The
problem is that is each one of those kids protesting in Hong Kong is
thinking something like, "How can I get married and have kids and a
family, if I'm dooming my children and grandchildren to be completely
trapped by the CCP dictators in 2047? How can I bring kids into the
world under those conditions?"

This is undoubtedly a major anxiety for many Hong Kong kids, and the
anxiety will just get worse and worse as each year goes by. So
there's really no hope that the protests will ever just fizzle.

Today's announcement by Carrie Lam of the formal withdrawal of the
extradition bill, after refusing to do so for months, is a major
humiliation for the CCP, and a major victory for the protesters. This
will energize the pro-democracy protesters in both Hong Kong and
Taiwan.

Returning now to the core theory, they're not co-opting the war cycle,
but they're coexisting with it. If you think of the Spanish Flu
example, it didn't have any effect on World War II, and yet the 1976
Swine Flu panic still occurred after 58 years, and so both cycles
coexisted. The war cycle might be thought of as a "dominant cycle,"
while the Spanish Flu cycle is a "secondary cycle."

The Spanish Flu example is a one-time event, and a more interesting
example is 1929 crash, which led to a false panic in 1987.

Global financial crises seem to have their own repeating cycles. The
bubble grows through massive creation of money through securitization
of debt, and the bubble collapses when things like margin calls cause
a chain of bankruptcies. The major major debt bubbles are:

* How money is "created": Securitization of debt
* Tulipomania - 1637 - Tulip future shares
* South Sea Bubble - 1721 - South Sea shares
* Bankruptcy of French Monarchy - 1789 - 'assignats'
* Panic of 1857 - Railway Shares
* Panic of 1929 - Foreign bonds and stock shares

This is a repeating set of cycles which is secondary to the war cycle.
One might picture it as follows:

[Image: Two-sine-waves-with-the-same-frequency-a...phases.png]
  • Two sine waves with the same frequency and amplitude but
    different phases. The blue wave represents the war cycle, which is
    dominant, and the red wave represents the financial crisis cycle,
    which is the secondary cycle


As the above diagram suggests, the global financial crisis cycle and
the war cycle operate independently. One does not cancel the other,
but the war cycle is dominant (for a given country) and the global
financial crisis is secondary. There is a difference between the two
cycles, not really conveyed by the above diagram. By the Principle of
Localization, there are multiple war cycles, one for each country or
society, and countries like Iran, Syria, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam
and others have different war cycles from the West. However, the
global financial crisis is mostly universal.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 09-04-2019, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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