Generational Dynamics World View

[tg63]

(09-17-2019, 10:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ... 
The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security.  That core is changing
slightly, now that America has become energy self-sufficient in the
last two years, but like it or not, America is still policeman of the
world, but the core agree that the Saudis will guarantee oil and the
Americans will guarantee security is unchanged.

Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses.  These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.
...

Many in the west/US have been looking for ways to end this relationship, but the dependency on Saudi oil has been simply too strong. At some point tho, a decision will be made that the cost is too great & that the US simply won't be the guarantor of Saudi safety, and let the chips fall where they may.

When that decision is made there won't be an announcement to the world. Rather it will be an internal decision ... which the world will only realize once it's clear that there won't be reprisals for attacks on Saudi Arabia. Would the Trump administration consider such a change? If I were Iran I might be interested in testing that.

Which is why I think there's a fourth possibility - the US may do nothing. That of course would signal to Iran (and others) the change in US policy ... and it's not too hard to see how that scenario would play out.