09-24-2019, 09:36 PM
*** 25-Sep-19 World View -- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
****
![[Image: g190924b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190924b.jpg)
Placards demanding Brexit on October 31, as Boris Johnson has promised (Reuters)
It's hard to know whether it's more accurate to describe the Brexit
drama in Britain as a situation comedy or as a Greek tragedy.
Actually it's both, since a well-written tragedy always contains some
humor in the form of "comic relief," until finally the tragedy reaches
its catastrophic conclusion.
What happened on Tuesday is pure comedy. The UK Supreme Court, which
only came into existence in 2009, ruled that prime minister Boris
Johnson's attempt to shut down Parliament for five weeks was illegal.
Johnson has promised that the UK will exit the EU on October 31, and
he used a parliamentary trick to suspend or "prorogate" the Parliament
for five weeks, in order to give himself some breathing room to
negotiate, or pretend to negotiate, a final "deal" with the EU on the
terms of the Brexit, in order to avoid the hated "no deal Brexit." So
the Parliament will start meeting again on Wednesday, and it should
provide a lot of laughs.
The real zinger in the UK Supreme Court ruling is that the court said
that when Boris Johnson went to the Queen earlier this month to ask
her to prorogate the Parliament, he "misled" her about the reasons.
So this means that Johnson lied to the Queen about the reasons, and
that the Queen was too dumb and credulous to know the real reasons,
which she and her staff could have quickly learned by reading the
newspaper or turning on the TV. So the ten-year-old UK Supreme Court
has firmly established itself by ruling that Johnson is a criminal and
the Queen is an idiot. Somebody's going to pay for that opinion in
the months to come.
****
**** The intractable Ireland land border
****
The Brexit referendum was passed in June 2016, and it was clear
almost immediately that it was a disaster.
The major intractable problem has been that, after the UK leaves the
EU, Northern Ireland will be in the UK, and Southern Ireland (the
Republic of Ireland) will be in the EU. So there will have to be
solid border crossings, and tariffs placed on goods crossing the
border.
There have been centuries of violent history between Ireland's
indigenous ethnic Gaelic people versus the descendants of the Scottish
and English invaders. This violence continued in modern times until
the "Good Friday Agreement" was signed in 1998. Many people say that
they fear that new border crossings would result in renewed violence.
The solution that the EU wants is called the "Irish Backstop." In
this case, the border would remain completely open, and then either
Northern Ireland would become part of the EU and separate from the UK,
or else Britain would have to follow all EU regulations and court
decisions, but have no say in making them. This solution is so
ridiculous that it serves as monument to the stupidity of this whole
process.
The "Brexiteers," led by Boris Johnson, claim they don't want a "no
deal Brexit," so they say they're going to tweak the Backstop as part
of a deal, something that the EU refuses to allow. The "Remainers"
don't want to admit they're remainers, since then they would be
ignoring "the will of the people," as expressed in the the 2016
referendum, so they advocate the "deal" with the Irish Backstop,
hoping that means that Brexit will be abandoned entirely.
****
**** The default solution: No-deal Brexit
****
Tuesday's court decision changes nothing, except the rhetoric.
It's still the case that unless a new arrangement is negotiated,
then the UK Brexit will take place with no deal on October 31.
I've been saying for a long time that I expect the final result
to be a no-deal Brexit, simply because the Generation-X is now
in charge in Britain and the EU.
Government leaders in the 1990s were in Silent generation that grew up
during the horrors of World War II, including the Nazi bombing of
London, and had the skills to negotiate and compromise. Today, the
Gen-Xers are in charge, and Gen-Xers have no skills to negotiate and
compromise. So there are different camps in the government, each
dominated by a different group of Gen-Xers, and they're all in
hardened positions opposed to each other.
My expectation for a long time is that a no-deal Brexit would occur
because it's the default, and it's the only option that doesn't
require anyone to negotiate and compromise with anyone else. So far,
that expectation has proven to be correct.
In the last year, the Parliament has repeatedly voted NO every
chance it could get -- no on remaining, no on a no-deal Brexit,
and noes on various "deal" Brexits. There's always a major to
reject any solution, but never a majority to say YES to any proposal.
The Parliament did vote in favor of a law forbidding Boris Johnson
from taking the UK out of the EU in a no-deal Brexit, but I don't
understand how that would work. A no-deal Brexit is the default, so
if Johnson does nothing, then a no-deal Brexit would occur
automatically on October 31.
Possible scenarios in the next few weeks include leaving the EU
with a no-deal Brexit on October 31, asking the EU to postpone
the October 31 date, or having a new British election. However,
none of these scenarios would resolve any of the differences.
There are also calls for a new referendum, but there's wide
disagreement on what options should be on it, and so the disagreements
on the text of the referendum could be as vitriolic as the disagreements
about Brexit itself.
The Brexit issue has badly split the British people, as well as the
two major British political parties, the Conservative Tories and
Labor, although the smaller Liberal Democrat party says that it's
united in wanting to Remain. It's possible that by the time this is
over, there will be a major realignment of British politics. There's
also talk of drawing up a constitution for the British government,
since it currently plenty of traditions, but they are not written
down.
And even though Britain voted in 2016 to leave the EU, today nobody
can say for sure whether Britain will actually leave the EU, and how
long it will be before a decision is reached. The comedy continues,
and the tragic dénouement awaits.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK,
Boris Johnson, Irish backstop
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
- The intractable Ireland land border
- The default solution: No-deal Brexit
****
**** The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
****
Placards demanding Brexit on October 31, as Boris Johnson has promised (Reuters)
It's hard to know whether it's more accurate to describe the Brexit
drama in Britain as a situation comedy or as a Greek tragedy.
Actually it's both, since a well-written tragedy always contains some
humor in the form of "comic relief," until finally the tragedy reaches
its catastrophic conclusion.
What happened on Tuesday is pure comedy. The UK Supreme Court, which
only came into existence in 2009, ruled that prime minister Boris
Johnson's attempt to shut down Parliament for five weeks was illegal.
Johnson has promised that the UK will exit the EU on October 31, and
he used a parliamentary trick to suspend or "prorogate" the Parliament
for five weeks, in order to give himself some breathing room to
negotiate, or pretend to negotiate, a final "deal" with the EU on the
terms of the Brexit, in order to avoid the hated "no deal Brexit." So
the Parliament will start meeting again on Wednesday, and it should
provide a lot of laughs.
The real zinger in the UK Supreme Court ruling is that the court said
that when Boris Johnson went to the Queen earlier this month to ask
her to prorogate the Parliament, he "misled" her about the reasons.
So this means that Johnson lied to the Queen about the reasons, and
that the Queen was too dumb and credulous to know the real reasons,
which she and her staff could have quickly learned by reading the
newspaper or turning on the TV. So the ten-year-old UK Supreme Court
has firmly established itself by ruling that Johnson is a criminal and
the Queen is an idiot. Somebody's going to pay for that opinion in
the months to come.
****
**** The intractable Ireland land border
****
The Brexit referendum was passed in June 2016, and it was clear
almost immediately that it was a disaster.
The major intractable problem has been that, after the UK leaves the
EU, Northern Ireland will be in the UK, and Southern Ireland (the
Republic of Ireland) will be in the EU. So there will have to be
solid border crossings, and tariffs placed on goods crossing the
border.
There have been centuries of violent history between Ireland's
indigenous ethnic Gaelic people versus the descendants of the Scottish
and English invaders. This violence continued in modern times until
the "Good Friday Agreement" was signed in 1998. Many people say that
they fear that new border crossings would result in renewed violence.
The solution that the EU wants is called the "Irish Backstop." In
this case, the border would remain completely open, and then either
Northern Ireland would become part of the EU and separate from the UK,
or else Britain would have to follow all EU regulations and court
decisions, but have no say in making them. This solution is so
ridiculous that it serves as monument to the stupidity of this whole
process.
The "Brexiteers," led by Boris Johnson, claim they don't want a "no
deal Brexit," so they say they're going to tweak the Backstop as part
of a deal, something that the EU refuses to allow. The "Remainers"
don't want to admit they're remainers, since then they would be
ignoring "the will of the people," as expressed in the the 2016
referendum, so they advocate the "deal" with the Irish Backstop,
hoping that means that Brexit will be abandoned entirely.
****
**** The default solution: No-deal Brexit
****
Tuesday's court decision changes nothing, except the rhetoric.
It's still the case that unless a new arrangement is negotiated,
then the UK Brexit will take place with no deal on October 31.
I've been saying for a long time that I expect the final result
to be a no-deal Brexit, simply because the Generation-X is now
in charge in Britain and the EU.
Government leaders in the 1990s were in Silent generation that grew up
during the horrors of World War II, including the Nazi bombing of
London, and had the skills to negotiate and compromise. Today, the
Gen-Xers are in charge, and Gen-Xers have no skills to negotiate and
compromise. So there are different camps in the government, each
dominated by a different group of Gen-Xers, and they're all in
hardened positions opposed to each other.
My expectation for a long time is that a no-deal Brexit would occur
because it's the default, and it's the only option that doesn't
require anyone to negotiate and compromise with anyone else. So far,
that expectation has proven to be correct.
In the last year, the Parliament has repeatedly voted NO every
chance it could get -- no on remaining, no on a no-deal Brexit,
and noes on various "deal" Brexits. There's always a major to
reject any solution, but never a majority to say YES to any proposal.
The Parliament did vote in favor of a law forbidding Boris Johnson
from taking the UK out of the EU in a no-deal Brexit, but I don't
understand how that would work. A no-deal Brexit is the default, so
if Johnson does nothing, then a no-deal Brexit would occur
automatically on October 31.
Possible scenarios in the next few weeks include leaving the EU
with a no-deal Brexit on October 31, asking the EU to postpone
the October 31 date, or having a new British election. However,
none of these scenarios would resolve any of the differences.
There are also calls for a new referendum, but there's wide
disagreement on what options should be on it, and so the disagreements
on the text of the referendum could be as vitriolic as the disagreements
about Brexit itself.
The Brexit issue has badly split the British people, as well as the
two major British political parties, the Conservative Tories and
Labor, although the smaller Liberal Democrat party says that it's
united in wanting to Remain. It's possible that by the time this is
over, there will be a major realignment of British politics. There's
also talk of drawing up a constitution for the British government,
since it currently plenty of traditions, but they are not written
down.
And even though Britain voted in 2016 to leave the EU, today nobody
can say for sure whether Britain will actually leave the EU, and how
long it will be before a decision is reached. The comedy continues,
and the tragic dénouement awaits.
Sources:
- Boris Johnson Attacks Historic Court Ruling and Vows to Deliver Brexit (Bloomberg, 24-Sep-2019)
- Brexit: Supreme court ruling 'weakens' PM's hand in negotiations (BBC, 24-Sep-2019)
- No Brexit or 'loophole' Brexit: what happens next in the UK? (Reuters, 24-Sep-2019)
- Brexit: What just happened in the UK Supreme Court? (BBC, 24-Sep-2019)
- Brexit: Supreme court ruling 'weakens' PM's hand in negotiations (BBC, 24-Sep-2019)
Related Articles:
- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK (19-Oct-2018)
- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit (02-Aug-2018)
- Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit (20-Jul-2018)
- Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements (09-May-2018)
- European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK,
Boris Johnson, Irish backstop
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
