10-12-2019, 10:38 AM
** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?
Turkey's invasion of Syria appears to be a lot more "exuberant" than
analysts had expected, suggesting that there's more going on than a
simple action to create a buffer zone, to protect Turkey from PKK
"terrorists."
Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the civil war should
have fizzled quickly in 2011. But it was propelled by the sociopathic
monster Bashar al-Assad, who pursued the war by targeting political
enemies, innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, using barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas.
Even so, it's been clear from the beginning that the Syrian people
themselves did not want to fight. By 2015, al-Assad himself announced
publicly that he was going to lose the war, and he begged for help,
which he received from Russia, in return for establishing two Russian
military bases, Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase).
So today, here's a (partial) list of all the groups fighting
in Syria:
Syria's armed forces, Russia's armed forces,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah,
ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh),
HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front),
JFS (Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria),
Turkey's armed forces, SNA (Syrian National Army),
United States armed forces and coalition forces,
YPG (People's Protection Units), PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).
Most of these are small groups formed on an ad-hoc basis for a
specific purpose.
But there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria, Russia,
Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.
Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah are countries in
generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding
war.
Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.
These two countries are historic enemies, and have fought many
generational crisis wars with each other. One of those was the
Crimean War of the 1850s, which was disastrous for both sides, but
feelings from the Crimean war have been revived in recent years
because of Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and
expulsion of the Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group. And there's also
tension over the Bosphorus, which is controlled by Turkey, but is
heavily used by Russia (and other nations) as the connection between
the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. And of course, tensions were
extremely high after Turkey "accidentally" shot down a Russian
warplane in November, 2015.
Turkey and Russia know how strong their mutual xenophobia has become,
and they're both aware that a small conflict could lead to a major
war, which neither side wants. So Turkey and Russia have been making
Herculean efforts, through the "Astana process," to stay out of each
other's way, to prevent an action that could lead to a major war.
So Russia has been fully engaged in supporting al-Assad's genocide and
ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political enemies, including Turkic
groups such as Turkmens. But Turkey has let Russia and al-Assad have
their way, even including chlorine and Sarin gas, and has not
interfered, having agreed to the farcical "de-escalation zones" in the
"Astana process."
Al-Assad and Russia have used the de-escalation zone agreement to
conduct full-scale genocidal war on all the people in every
de-escalation zone except one.
The remaining de-escalation zone is Idlib, in northwest Syria, on
Turkey's border. Al-Assad would like to go in an exterminate all
three million Arab Sunnis living in Idlib, including women and
children, all of whom are "terrorists" according to al-Assad, and
Russia would like to help him, but everyone knows that would be
opposed militarily by Turkey, and could lead to a Russia-Turkey war.
Returning now to northeast Syria, we have the Kurds, who want to form
their own secessionist state of Rojava on the border with Turkey.
Thanks to their US-backed fight against ISIS, the Kurds now have
control of a large part of Syria, including the planned state of
Rojava, and gaining control of that land was a major part of their
motivation to fight ISIS. Now the Kurds have Rojava almost in their
grasp, but the thought of Rojava on Turkey's border makes the Turks'
blood run cold, as terrorist attacks in Turkey would certainly be
launched from Rojava. So Turkey has invaded Syria to set up a buffer
zone, and destroy the Rojava dream once and for all.
So the question now is how "exuberant" Turkey's invasion will continue
to be. Will they quickly create a buffer zone with minimal civilian
casualties, or will they adopt harsher crisis era behaviors, such as
genocide and ethnic cleansing? The Russians want to protect the
Kurds, but they will be reluctant to intervene, for fear of a larger
Russia-Turkey war.
So we have possible Russia-Turkey wars in both northwest and northeast
Syria. Both countries want to avoid such a war, but the two regions
are only a few hundred miles apart, and if things get complicated,
then the northeast and northwest may interact and lead to a
Russia-Turkey war anyway.
There is, of course, one more international army in a generational
Crisis -- the United States. There are lots of people in Washington
calling on the US army to intervene between Turkey and the Kurds, but
that could easily lead to a Turkey-US war, which neither side wants.
Russia's sleazy foreign minister Andrei Lavrov, who never tells the
truth except by accident, this week has been blaming the United
States, and has been goading the United States to intervene to stop
Turkey. On other occasions, Lavrov has lectured the US that it's
illegal for the US to be in Syria at all. But now, when Russia wants
its dirty work to be done by the US, suddenly the US is welcome in
Syria. Quelle surprise!
Goose Wrote:> Turkey/Syria: Done a little looking at the Kurds. Sweethearts they
> are not. The are strictly tribal and would as soon off another
> Kurd from another tribe as anyone else. That said they have been
> at war in some form or another with everybody in the neighborhood
> for all of recorded time. Fact is that there enough of them for
> them to have formed a country even now; but they are tribal and
> that precludes anything but war hot or cold and terrorist action.
> They are a non-state actor who will fight for any one who will pay
> them. I now suspect that they tried a money play with PDJT. Bad
> move on someone who comes out of the NYC RE market.
> I would say that I feel sorry for any individual who lives in that
> neighborhood and is subject to what happens there. But I have no
> sympathy for the actors - Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia or
> Kurds or Isis or any other group who seeks to play the hard game.
> Russia is on the spot if they do not support Assad he may seek to
> kick them out of their bases in Syria. If they get too frisky
> Turkey could close the strait to the Med. Mobile anti-ship
> missiles are the latest item in the fall weapons catalogs. Have
> them in time for Xmas. Besides Europe could use another million
> refugees with a bunch of Isis mixed in for a little spice.
> Question since 1800 how many years have been without a war (or
> lately "police action") I do not have the answer but would bet
> very few. On that could it not be that war is normal. Another
> observation global warming is welcome as most of North America
> would be under ice without it.
Turkey's invasion of Syria appears to be a lot more "exuberant" than
analysts had expected, suggesting that there's more going on than a
simple action to create a buffer zone, to protect Turkey from PKK
"terrorists."
Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the civil war should
have fizzled quickly in 2011. But it was propelled by the sociopathic
monster Bashar al-Assad, who pursued the war by targeting political
enemies, innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, using barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas.
Even so, it's been clear from the beginning that the Syrian people
themselves did not want to fight. By 2015, al-Assad himself announced
publicly that he was going to lose the war, and he begged for help,
which he received from Russia, in return for establishing two Russian
military bases, Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase).
So today, here's a (partial) list of all the groups fighting
in Syria:
Syria's armed forces, Russia's armed forces,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah,
ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh),
HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front),
JFS (Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria),
Turkey's armed forces, SNA (Syrian National Army),
United States armed forces and coalition forces,
YPG (People's Protection Units), PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).
Most of these are small groups formed on an ad-hoc basis for a
specific purpose.
But there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria, Russia,
Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.
Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah are countries in
generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding
war.
Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.
These two countries are historic enemies, and have fought many
generational crisis wars with each other. One of those was the
Crimean War of the 1850s, which was disastrous for both sides, but
feelings from the Crimean war have been revived in recent years
because of Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and
expulsion of the Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group. And there's also
tension over the Bosphorus, which is controlled by Turkey, but is
heavily used by Russia (and other nations) as the connection between
the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. And of course, tensions were
extremely high after Turkey "accidentally" shot down a Russian
warplane in November, 2015.
Turkey and Russia know how strong their mutual xenophobia has become,
and they're both aware that a small conflict could lead to a major
war, which neither side wants. So Turkey and Russia have been making
Herculean efforts, through the "Astana process," to stay out of each
other's way, to prevent an action that could lead to a major war.
So Russia has been fully engaged in supporting al-Assad's genocide and
ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political enemies, including Turkic
groups such as Turkmens. But Turkey has let Russia and al-Assad have
their way, even including chlorine and Sarin gas, and has not
interfered, having agreed to the farcical "de-escalation zones" in the
"Astana process."
Al-Assad and Russia have used the de-escalation zone agreement to
conduct full-scale genocidal war on all the people in every
de-escalation zone except one.
The remaining de-escalation zone is Idlib, in northwest Syria, on
Turkey's border. Al-Assad would like to go in an exterminate all
three million Arab Sunnis living in Idlib, including women and
children, all of whom are "terrorists" according to al-Assad, and
Russia would like to help him, but everyone knows that would be
opposed militarily by Turkey, and could lead to a Russia-Turkey war.
Returning now to northeast Syria, we have the Kurds, who want to form
their own secessionist state of Rojava on the border with Turkey.
Thanks to their US-backed fight against ISIS, the Kurds now have
control of a large part of Syria, including the planned state of
Rojava, and gaining control of that land was a major part of their
motivation to fight ISIS. Now the Kurds have Rojava almost in their
grasp, but the thought of Rojava on Turkey's border makes the Turks'
blood run cold, as terrorist attacks in Turkey would certainly be
launched from Rojava. So Turkey has invaded Syria to set up a buffer
zone, and destroy the Rojava dream once and for all.
So the question now is how "exuberant" Turkey's invasion will continue
to be. Will they quickly create a buffer zone with minimal civilian
casualties, or will they adopt harsher crisis era behaviors, such as
genocide and ethnic cleansing? The Russians want to protect the
Kurds, but they will be reluctant to intervene, for fear of a larger
Russia-Turkey war.
So we have possible Russia-Turkey wars in both northwest and northeast
Syria. Both countries want to avoid such a war, but the two regions
are only a few hundred miles apart, and if things get complicated,
then the northeast and northwest may interact and lead to a
Russia-Turkey war anyway.
There is, of course, one more international army in a generational
Crisis -- the United States. There are lots of people in Washington
calling on the US army to intervene between Turkey and the Kurds, but
that could easily lead to a Turkey-US war, which neither side wants.
Russia's sleazy foreign minister Andrei Lavrov, who never tells the
truth except by accident, this week has been blaming the United
States, and has been goading the United States to intervene to stop
Turkey. On other occasions, Lavrov has lectured the US that it's
illegal for the US to be in Syria at all. But now, when Russia wants
its dirty work to be done by the US, suddenly the US is welcome in
Syria. Quelle surprise!
