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Generational Dynamics World View
** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

15,000 Turkish forces, with the Arab Syrian National Army, are pushing
into Syria, with reports that they're massacring Kurds on the ground
and through airstrikes. One video shows an Arab shooting a Kurd lying
on the ground.

Turkey seems to be going deeper and wider than they had previously
said to create a buffer zone. Thousands of Kurdish families are being
displaced and forced to flee to the south.

There are reports that hundreds of family members of ISIS families
have been set free.

The media are overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey, and so many of these
reports might be huge exaggerations. Things should become clearer in
a few days.

Some pundits are claiming that the Turks are planning ethnic cleansing
of the Kurds. Turkey says that they're targeting terrorists (PKK and
ISIS), not Kurds. Turkey points out that they're currently sheltering
300,000 Syrian Kurds in Turkey who fled the violence in Syria, so it
doesn't make sense to say that Turkey is targeting Kurds, and they
will be able to return to Syria after the buffer zone has been
created.

In the last 15 years, I've read about and written about hundreds of
incursions, military actions, invasions, and so forth. In some cases,
the incursion is carefully controlled. These are typical of
non-crisis wars.

Other incursions are highly emotional, organic and uncontrolled, and
that seems to be the case with Turkey's invasion of Syria. These are
typical of actions taken in a generational Crisis era.

The best recent analogy would be Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon to
attack Hezbollah. Israel panicked when two Israeli soldiers were
abducted near Lebanon's border, and conducted a highly emotional,
organic and uncontrolled invasion of Lebanon. The war was a disaster
for all involved, and ended a few weeks later with nothing
accomplished except to destroy a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure in
airstrikes, and displace a lot of Lebanese from their homes.

The invasion of Lebanon fizzled because Lebanon was in a
generatinal Awakening era. So is Syria.

So it's quite possible, even more likely than not, that Turkey's Syria
incursion will end in a few weeks. Erdogan made a statement earlier
today that the incursion will stop when it has created a buffer zone
400 km wide and 35 km deep, and that statement is credible.

However, the war might not end in a few weeks if the Russians decide
to intervene. This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that
American troops will continue to withdraw from northern Syria, and
that "There's every expectation...that the Syrian Kurds would cut a
deal with the Syrian and Russian forces."

If the Russians defend the Kurds in an organized manner, as US forces
have been doing until now, then the Turkish intervention should fizzle.
Al-Jazeera reports that al-Assad is sending troops to the region, and
if that's true, then Russians may support them.

But as I described in detail yesterday, Russia is in a generational
Crisis era, like Turkey, and the two countries have centuries of wars
between them, so if the situation becomes uncontrolled on either side,
then there could be a full-scale war between the two countries.

Another action that would lead to full-scale war is if Trump ordered
American troops to fight the Turks and protect the Kurds. Some
politicians are calling for that, but it would be a disaster.

A number of politicians are blaming the whole situation on Donald
Trump, claiming that it was Trump's decision to withdraw 50 soldiers
from observation posts on the Turkey's border that caused Turkey's
invasion. The argument this morning is that the 50 soldiers acted as
a "tripwire," and Turkey would not risk crossing the tripwire.

That argument is completely lacking in credibility. Turkey is in
a generational Crisis era and has been planning for this invasion
for months, and there's no chance that they would be stopped
by 50 US soldiers.

This morning, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that when Trump
and Erdogan spoke on the phone last Sunday, Erdogan said that he
would go through with the invasion whether the US soldiers were there
or not. That claim is highly credible to me. Erdogan was going
ahead with the invasion, and as a courtesy, he told Trump to remove
the 50 US soldiers so that they wouldn't be caught in the crossfire.

There was a lot of weeping and moaning by politicians this morning
over the plight of the Kurds by politicians who know nothing about
them. I feel bad for the plight of the Kurds too, but I'm wondering
why I don't hear weeping and moaning from these politicians when
Bashar al-Assad's army kills and displaces millions of his Sunni Arab
political enemies with barrel bombs, chlorine gas, and Sarin gas. It
turns out that the Kurds are today's fashionable, stylish ethnic
group, while the Arab Sunnis are consigned to the waste bin.

So the situation in Syria may fizzle out, or it may expand into
full-scale war, mainly depending on what Russia does.

As I've written hundreds of times, The Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Jews vs Arabs, Sunnis vs Shias, and various
ethnic groups against each other. When I write this, I mean that it's
100% certain. Some people think that it depends on Trump, or Obama,
or Biden. It doesn't. A war between Turkey and Russia in Syria might
be the start, or it might turn out to be something else.


---- Source:

-- Esper says U.S. staying in Syria, but withdrawing south of Turkish
advance and deal in works to have Russians protect Kurds
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...ect-kurds/
(MilitaryTimes, 13-Oct-2019)


---- Related:

*** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?
***
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...985#p47985
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 10-13-2019, 02:03 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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