10-14-2019, 10:31 AM
** 14-Oct-2019 World View: War between Turkey and Russia
This is a very interesting analysis. My comments have to do with
the fact that it's too logical.
A generational crisis war is raw emotion. Imperial Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor even though the US was five times as large as Japan, and it
was obvious that Japan would eventually lose the war.
The news today is that the Kurdish SDF has made an agreement with
Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian army, presumably backed by Russia,
will occupy northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Presumably,
this will stop the invasion, though I don't see how.
Turkey and Russia are in generational Crisis eras, have had many
generational crisis wars in the past, and they hate each other.
This means that the situation is ripe for situations where one
clash escalates to a larger clash, leading to war. This is exactly
how world wars start, as I've described in the past.
The information you've provided about Russia's army and population
would not prevent these escalations from occurring, since the
escalations would be emotional and organic. But what you've written
shows how the war might proceed in Russia. For example, Russia's last
generational crisis war involved the Boshevik Revolution, civil war
between Stalin and Trotsky, and the Ukraine Holomodor famine. All of
these civil war elements will be repeated, and would be triggered by a
war between Turkey and Russia.
Guest Wrote:> Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so
> what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the
> thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground
> forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has
> been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every
> level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale
> is poor.
> And here is the wild card:
> "By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript
> army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population." Ethnographers:
> Russia will have a Muslim majority 'within our lifetime.'
> http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08/...lim-russia
> I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian
> ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic
> Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in
> Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia
> allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to
> protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit
> for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.
This is a very interesting analysis. My comments have to do with
the fact that it's too logical.
A generational crisis war is raw emotion. Imperial Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor even though the US was five times as large as Japan, and it
was obvious that Japan would eventually lose the war.
The news today is that the Kurdish SDF has made an agreement with
Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian army, presumably backed by Russia,
will occupy northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Presumably,
this will stop the invasion, though I don't see how.
Turkey and Russia are in generational Crisis eras, have had many
generational crisis wars in the past, and they hate each other.
This means that the situation is ripe for situations where one
clash escalates to a larger clash, leading to war. This is exactly
how world wars start, as I've described in the past.
The information you've provided about Russia's army and population
would not prevent these escalations from occurring, since the
escalations would be emotional and organic. But what you've written
shows how the war might proceed in Russia. For example, Russia's last
generational crisis war involved the Boshevik Revolution, civil war
between Stalin and Trotsky, and the Ukraine Holomodor famine. All of
these civil war elements will be repeated, and would be triggered by a
war between Turkey and Russia.
