10-14-2019, 01:19 PM
** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History
Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved
in a major war with Turkey. Of course, then you would be posting
messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had
been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq
war. I've seen this cynical game played over and over.
Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would. Erdogan
has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have
become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa. He made
it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.
There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds
on its border. What's happening now had to happen.
You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and
it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats
and Republicans.
Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History." It's the
belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world
happens because the president of the United States did something or
didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.
Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was
adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the
Fourth Turning without a war.
But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that
his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling
the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.
In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add
one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s
probably a good thing. Not probably. It’s definitely a good thing."
So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though
without realizing that he was doing so.
The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that
is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly
disproved by events. Great events happen because of the flow of
populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the
President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't
do.
So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and
set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's
politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish
political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some
point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.
So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening.
So it is working out the way I thought it would.
So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war
between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a
posting a few days ago. The news today is that al-Assad's army is
headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia. Turkey and
Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought
numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with
absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant
future.
Yes of course it has. Generational Dynamics has predicted a major
Mideast war for years. Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.
(10-14-2019, 11:24 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It
> wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000
> Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS
> prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!
Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved
in a major war with Turkey. Of course, then you would be posting
messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had
been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq
war. I've seen this cynical game played over and over.
Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would. Erdogan
has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have
become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa. He made
it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.
There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds
on its border. What's happening now had to happen.
You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and
it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats
and Republicans.
Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History." It's the
belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world
happens because the president of the United States did something or
didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.
Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was
adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the
Fourth Turning without a war.
But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that
his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling
the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.
In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add
one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s
probably a good thing. Not probably. It’s definitely a good thing."
So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though
without realizing that he was doing so.
The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that
is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly
disproved by events. Great events happen because of the flow of
populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the
President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't
do.
So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and
set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's
politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish
political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some
point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.
So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening.
So it is working out the way I thought it would.
So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war
between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a
posting a few days ago. The news today is that al-Assad's army is
headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia. Turkey and
Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought
numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with
absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant
future.
(10-14-2019, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: > This has only started!
Yes of course it has. Generational Dynamics has predicted a major
Mideast war for years. Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.
