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Generational Dynamics World View
(10-14-2019, 01:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History

(10-14-2019, 11:24 AM)David Horn Wrote: Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000 Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!

Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved in a major war with Turkey.  Of course, then you would be posting messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq war.  I've seen this cynical game played over and over.

Erdogan is ballsy, but not stupid. Attacking US forces in the field would mandate a major response, and the response would have to be proportional … of course, Trump may have decided that our troops were in the way and it was our bad. Rolleyes

John J. Xenakis Wrote:Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would.  Erdogan has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa.  He made it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.

There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds on its border.  What's happening now had to happen.

You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats and Republicans.

The Turks need to resolve their internal mess. Erdogan was on shakier ground than Trump until Trump gave a free pass.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History."  It's the belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world happens because the president of the United States did something or didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.

Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the Fourth Turning without a war.

But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.

In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s probably a good thing.  Not probably.  It’s definitely a good thing."

So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though without realizing that he was doing so.

Bit of a stretch there, but yes, Obamas strengths were domestic not international.

John J. Xenakis Wrote:The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly disproved by events.  Great events happen because of the flow of populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't do.

So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.

So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening. So it is working out the way I thought it would.

So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a posting a few days ago.  The news today is that al-Assad's army is headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia.  Turkey and Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant future.

(10-14-2019, 11:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: This has only started!

Yes of course it has.  Generational Dynamics has predicted a major Mideast war for years.  Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.

Predicting a war in the Middle East is a lot like predicting the sun will rise in the morning. We'll have to see whether it turns really ugly. You have three ancient empires: Ottoman, Arab and Persian, all acting like nothing's changed since 1910 … or 1210, perhaps. I suspect we'll stay out of this one, but Israel can't and will be the wild card.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by David Horn - 10-14-2019, 05:04 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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