10-15-2019, 04:39 PM
** 15-Oct-2019 World View: The Kurds vs the Turks and Syrians
Thanks for that "on the ground" information. Most news reports are
buried in one ideology or another, it's hard to discern the truth,
but I've known you long enough to know that what you're saying
is the actual situation.
The information you're providing explains why Turkey is getting along
with an internal population of 300,000 Kurds, but is still invading
Syria to eliminate PKK/YPG Kurds. However, reports indicate that it's
the Syrian Arabs in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is allied
with Turkey, that really hate the Kurds.
The news today is that the Syrian army is heading north to separate
the Kurdish SDF from Turkish forces, and Russia is sending special
forces into the area to separate Syrian forces from Kurdish forces and
Turkish forces.
So perhaps the 50 American soldiers who were withdrawn from border
posts are now being replaced by Russian soldiers in border posts.
Whether this is happening may become clearer as the chaos ends. As of
now, Turkey's invasion is raging on.
Another implication is that Russia and Turkey are not headed for war
with each other, which I speculated about a few days ago. As I wrote
at the time, Russia and Turkey are historically mortal enemies, and
both are in a generational Crisis era, and so they've been going to
great lengths, through the "Astana process," to make sure that there's
no miscalculation that can lead to war.
The US and EU are threatening harsh sanctions against Turkey if the
invasion doesn't end soon. At the same time, Turkey's forces are
being blocked by Russian forces. The result is that Turkey has
become almost completely isolated. Erdogan has been very skillful
at playing the US and Russia against each other, but that's not
possible at the present time.
Russia's last generational crisis war was the Russian Revolution.
The other wars that you mention are non-crisis wars.
With regard to wars in "two phases," that's how many non-crisis wars
occur. The two sides clash, and have a truce and a peace agreement.
The peace agreement collapses and there's a new clash, and the cycle
repeats, alternating between periods of violence and negotiated peace.
Each episode of war is more violent than the preceding one, until
finally it spins into a full-scale generational crisis war.
One problem with analyzing Russia is that it's so big that it's
on several timelines.
utahbob Wrote:> ** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria
> John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The
> “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that
> has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy
> media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists
> “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a
> heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into
> “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry
> company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and
> love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with
> the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man”
> for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will
> make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way
> forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey
> proper.
> The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved
> into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on
> how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and
> best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the
> world.
Thanks for that "on the ground" information. Most news reports are
buried in one ideology or another, it's hard to discern the truth,
but I've known you long enough to know that what you're saying
is the actual situation.
The information you're providing explains why Turkey is getting along
with an internal population of 300,000 Kurds, but is still invading
Syria to eliminate PKK/YPG Kurds. However, reports indicate that it's
the Syrian Arabs in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is allied
with Turkey, that really hate the Kurds.
The news today is that the Syrian army is heading north to separate
the Kurdish SDF from Turkish forces, and Russia is sending special
forces into the area to separate Syrian forces from Kurdish forces and
Turkish forces.
So perhaps the 50 American soldiers who were withdrawn from border
posts are now being replaced by Russian soldiers in border posts.
Whether this is happening may become clearer as the chaos ends. As of
now, Turkey's invasion is raging on.
Another implication is that Russia and Turkey are not headed for war
with each other, which I speculated about a few days ago. As I wrote
at the time, Russia and Turkey are historically mortal enemies, and
both are in a generational Crisis era, and so they've been going to
great lengths, through the "Astana process," to make sure that there's
no miscalculation that can lead to war.
The US and EU are threatening harsh sanctions against Turkey if the
invasion doesn't end soon. At the same time, Turkey's forces are
being blocked by Russian forces. The result is that Turkey has
become almost completely isolated. Erdogan has been very skillful
at playing the US and Russia against each other, but that's not
possible at the present time.
Guest Wrote:> But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian
> Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics
> have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?
> Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the
> Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester
> Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South
> Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually
> involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia
> and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars
> raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia
> troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the
> 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia
> be deep into a GC?
Russia's last generational crisis war was the Russian Revolution.
The other wars that you mention are non-crisis wars.
With regard to wars in "two phases," that's how many non-crisis wars
occur. The two sides clash, and have a truce and a peace agreement.
The peace agreement collapses and there's a new clash, and the cycle
repeats, alternating between periods of violence and negotiated peace.
Each episode of war is more violent than the preceding one, until
finally it spins into a full-scale generational crisis war.
One problem with analyzing Russia is that it's so big that it's
on several timelines.
