10-20-2019, 05:42 PM
** 20-Oct-2019 World View: Hong Kong riots
As far as I can tell, they aren't dying off at all, but they have
reached some kind of "steady state" for the time being. There are a
certain number of protesters each weekend, there's a certain amount of
property damage each weekend, and there's a certain amount of violence
by the police each weekend. But all of those numbers seem to be
roughly the same each week, so there's no major news.
I should add that even if the protests die off, as they did in 2014,
it would be only temporary. The protests are based on very deep
feelings that are only going to grow stronger:
Incidentally, there are some reports that mainlanders visiting
Hong Kong are afraid to speak Mandarin, for fear of being attacked.
The solution is that they speak English, which is hugely ironic.
We've been wondering for a long time when the CCP would send the army
into Hong Kong. I heard an analyst of tv say that would never happen.
Right now, Carrie Lam and the HK security police have to deal with the
protesters. If the army came in, then the protesters would not go
away, but Xi Jinping and the army would have to deal with them. The
CCP would prefer things the way they are.
Incidentally, the Hong Kong hostility to mainlanders isn't new.
Here's something that I wrote in 2012:
[Begin quote]
Hong Kong's growing hostility to mainland China evident from Hu Jintao's visit
![[Image: g120702b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g120702b.jpg)
As we reported yesterday, China's president Hu Jintao visited Hong
Kong on Sunday to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the handover of
Hong Kong by Britain to China. Reports indicate that, far from being
a happy celebration, the events sharpened the anger of Hong Kong
residents against the mainland:
In China's last generational crisis civil war, Mao's Communist
Revolution that climaxed in 1949, those who were able to escape to
Formosa (Taiwan) did so by passing through Hong Kong. It's likely
that Hong Kong will again play a pivotal role in China's next crisis
civil war.
[End quote]
So that was happening in July 2012. One major difference today is
that protesters are carrying American flags rather than British flags.
At any rate, the answer to your questions is: No, I don't think that
the protests will die off completely, though they might end
temporarily.
Guest Wrote:> The protests in Hong Kong seem to be dying off. Do you think that
> they'll die off completely?
As far as I can tell, they aren't dying off at all, but they have
reached some kind of "steady state" for the time being. There are a
certain number of protesters each weekend, there's a certain amount of
property damage each weekend, and there's a certain amount of violence
by the police each weekend. But all of those numbers seem to be
roughly the same each week, so there's no major news.
I should add that even if the protests die off, as they did in 2014,
it would be only temporary. The protests are based on very deep
feelings that are only going to grow stronger:
- The Hong Kongers hate the mainlanders.
- The Hong Kongers speak Cantonese, while the mainlanders speak
Mandarin.
- Tensions are growing along the Beijing-Hong Kong and north-south
fault lines, and China is overdue for a new massive anti-government
rebellion, following the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's
Communist Revolution (1934-49).
- Young people are very aware that Hong Kong is scheduled in 2047 to
lose any special democratic freedoms that were supposedly guaranteed
by the CCP when Britain handed over Hong Kong in 1997. In particular,
young people are aware that if they get married, then any children
they bring into the world will be under the thumb of the violent CCP
dictatorship.
Incidentally, there are some reports that mainlanders visiting
Hong Kong are afraid to speak Mandarin, for fear of being attacked.
The solution is that they speak English, which is hugely ironic.
We've been wondering for a long time when the CCP would send the army
into Hong Kong. I heard an analyst of tv say that would never happen.
Right now, Carrie Lam and the HK security police have to deal with the
protesters. If the army came in, then the protesters would not go
away, but Xi Jinping and the army would have to deal with them. The
CCP would prefer things the way they are.
Incidentally, the Hong Kong hostility to mainlanders isn't new.
Here's something that I wrote in 2012:
[Begin quote]
Hong Kong's growing hostility to mainland China evident from Hu Jintao's visit
- From July 2012: Young Hong Kong protester carries a picture
of Queen Elizabeth on Sunday (Reuters)
As we reported yesterday, China's president Hu Jintao visited Hong
Kong on Sunday to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the handover of
Hong Kong by Britain to China. Reports indicate that, far from being
a happy celebration, the events sharpened the anger of Hong Kong
residents against the mainland:
- A journalist tried to ask Hu a question about Tiananmen
Square, and he was jailed, something that infuriated the journalist
fraternity.
- Hu introduced Hong Kong's new Chief Executive from the mainland,
C.Y. Leung. Leung insulted many present by giving his inaugural
address in Mandarin, the language of the mainland, rather than in
Cantonese, which is the first language of more than 90 percent of Hong
Kong’s people.
- Some 100,000 protesters joined a pro-democracy march from Victoria
Park to the shoreline of Victoria Harbor. (These are, of course,
British names.)
- Many of the protesters carried old British-era Hong Kong flags,
which carry the British Union flag in one corner. It has become a
symbol not so much of nostalgia for the British as a banner for those
demanding real autonomy.
- There was a huge contingent of Falun Gong protesters. The Falun
Gong sprang up in mainland China in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen
Square massacre, and had millions of adherents before Beijing crushed
them. Since around 2000, anyone belonging to the Falun Gong on the
mainland is subject to arrest and torture.
- A public opinion poll shows 64% of those polled thought that Hong
Kong had become a worse place since the handover.
In China's last generational crisis civil war, Mao's Communist
Revolution that climaxed in 1949, those who were able to escape to
Formosa (Taiwan) did so by passing through Hong Kong. It's likely
that Hong Kong will again play a pivotal role in China's next crisis
civil war.
[End quote]
So that was happening in July 2012. One major difference today is
that protesters are carrying American flags rather than British flags.
At any rate, the answer to your questions is: No, I don't think that
the protests will die off completely, though they might end
temporarily.
