07-13-2016, 09:41 PM
*** 14-Jul-16 World View -- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured
****
![[Image: g160713b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160713b.jpg)
Anti-Indian protesters clashing with Indian police in Srinagar in Kashmir
Hospitals in Indian-controlled Kashmir are being overwhelmed with
patients after four days of clashes between police separatist
demonstrators. The protestors are demanding that two provinces,
Kashmir and Jammu, separate from India and become part of Pakistan,
because of the large Muslim population.
The violence was triggered on Friday when activist Burhan Wani, 22,
was killed in a gunfight with the Indian Army. Wani was a division
commander in Hizbul Mujahideen, a separatist organization, and was
very popular with on social media. Hizbul Mujahideen is the largest
activist organization fighting against Indian rule in the contested
Jammu-Kashmir region.
India's army imposed a curfew on Saturday, but that drew out thousands
of angry rock-throwing protesters defying the curfew. Indian army
troops used live ammunition and pellet guns to try and quell the
violence, which has continued for several days. A mob attacked a
police station on Tuesday. Hospitals are being overwhelmed by the
arrival of hundreds of wounded patients. In all, at least 36 people
were killed, including one policemen, and thousands of people were
injured.
With the strict curfew still in place, Kashmir was relatively quiet on
Wednesday, despite the fact that it was the anniversary of "Martyrs'
Day," when Kashmiris were killed by police firing on protesters on
July 13, 1931. Tribune India and AP and Daily Times (Pakistan)
****
**** Jammu-Kashmir violence follows a typical generational timeline after civil war
****
Kashmir was a major battleground for the 1947 Partition war that
followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and
Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century. The Kashmir
region was a particularly bloody site of the war between Hindus and
Muslims, and it's still disputed, with an internationally recognized
Line of Control (LoC) separating the regions currently governed by
Pakistan from those governed by India.
As I've described in numerous countries that have been through a
generational crisis civil war, there is a consistent pattern that such
countries almost always follow.
About 20 years after the end of an ethnic civil war, a post-war
generation comes of age. They have no personal memory of the war, and
all they know is what they've heard from their parents and friends, so
they have very limited information. The kids in this generation on
each side know nothing of the atrocities their side committed, but
know a lot about the atrocities committed against them by the other
side. So the two sides of this generation come of age knowing two
completely different sets of partial information.
So after 20 years, these young people start to rebel. This can take
the form of anything from peaceful protests to violent riots to
terrorist attacks. The governing authorities, usually from the side
that won the war, fear a renewal of the civil war and react to the
protests in various ways. At first, simple police actions work, at
least for a while. In Thailand, the army is trying to control the
"red shirt" indigenous Thais through coups and a constitutional
referendum. In Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza is selectively killing,
torturing and jailing Tutsi opponents. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe
conducted wholesale slaughter of the Ndebele opponents. In Syria,
Bashar al-Assad is currently conducting wholesale slaughter of Sunni
opponents. In Bangladesh, "the Sheikh Hasina Government has decimated
the leadership of established Islamist terrorist formations and their
sympathetic institutions," according to one analysis, and arrested
over 3,000 people in a sweep last month.
Jammu-Kashmir has following the same pattern. There were constant
protests and brief conflicts between Indians and Pakistani Muslims,
ending in agreements for peace that lasted weeks or months before
low-level violence began again, with each new round of violence worse
than the last.
The relatively small protests of the Recovery and Awakening eras
became widespread protests and an armed insurgency that began
following a disputed election in 1987, as JK entered its generational
Unraveling era.
In 1989, Hizbul Mujahideen was formed. Although it was funded and
supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the
important fact from the point of view of Generational Dynamics is that
it quickly became extremely popular, with thousands of members by the
early 1990s. Hizbul Mujahideen has been riven by splintering and
internal conflicts, but there are today thousands of anti-India
protesters in Indian-governed Kashmir.
There are numerous stories in the press suggesting ways to "solve the
core problems" in Jammu-Kashmir. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, no such solutions exist, and there will be
continue to be clashes in the future. These solutions completely miss
the point. They suggest that some politician pursue peace talks or
something similar. That's always the easy suggestion from people who
have no clue what's going on. These protests are not coming from
politicians. They're growing organically from the population, and no
politician can either cause them or stop them. Generational Dynamics
predicts that Muslims and Hindus will have a full-scale war,
re-fighting the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of
the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. The Hindu and Greater Kashmir and SATP (India) and The News (Pakistan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured
- Jammu-Kashmir violence follows a typical generational timeline after civil war
****
**** Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured
****
Anti-Indian protesters clashing with Indian police in Srinagar in Kashmir
Hospitals in Indian-controlled Kashmir are being overwhelmed with
patients after four days of clashes between police separatist
demonstrators. The protestors are demanding that two provinces,
Kashmir and Jammu, separate from India and become part of Pakistan,
because of the large Muslim population.
The violence was triggered on Friday when activist Burhan Wani, 22,
was killed in a gunfight with the Indian Army. Wani was a division
commander in Hizbul Mujahideen, a separatist organization, and was
very popular with on social media. Hizbul Mujahideen is the largest
activist organization fighting against Indian rule in the contested
Jammu-Kashmir region.
India's army imposed a curfew on Saturday, but that drew out thousands
of angry rock-throwing protesters defying the curfew. Indian army
troops used live ammunition and pellet guns to try and quell the
violence, which has continued for several days. A mob attacked a
police station on Tuesday. Hospitals are being overwhelmed by the
arrival of hundreds of wounded patients. In all, at least 36 people
were killed, including one policemen, and thousands of people were
injured.
With the strict curfew still in place, Kashmir was relatively quiet on
Wednesday, despite the fact that it was the anniversary of "Martyrs'
Day," when Kashmiris were killed by police firing on protesters on
July 13, 1931. Tribune India and AP and Daily Times (Pakistan)
****
**** Jammu-Kashmir violence follows a typical generational timeline after civil war
****
Kashmir was a major battleground for the 1947 Partition war that
followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and
Pakistan, one of the bloodiest wars of the last century. The Kashmir
region was a particularly bloody site of the war between Hindus and
Muslims, and it's still disputed, with an internationally recognized
Line of Control (LoC) separating the regions currently governed by
Pakistan from those governed by India.
As I've described in numerous countries that have been through a
generational crisis civil war, there is a consistent pattern that such
countries almost always follow.
About 20 years after the end of an ethnic civil war, a post-war
generation comes of age. They have no personal memory of the war, and
all they know is what they've heard from their parents and friends, so
they have very limited information. The kids in this generation on
each side know nothing of the atrocities their side committed, but
know a lot about the atrocities committed against them by the other
side. So the two sides of this generation come of age knowing two
completely different sets of partial information.
So after 20 years, these young people start to rebel. This can take
the form of anything from peaceful protests to violent riots to
terrorist attacks. The governing authorities, usually from the side
that won the war, fear a renewal of the civil war and react to the
protests in various ways. At first, simple police actions work, at
least for a while. In Thailand, the army is trying to control the
"red shirt" indigenous Thais through coups and a constitutional
referendum. In Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza is selectively killing,
torturing and jailing Tutsi opponents. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe
conducted wholesale slaughter of the Ndebele opponents. In Syria,
Bashar al-Assad is currently conducting wholesale slaughter of Sunni
opponents. In Bangladesh, "the Sheikh Hasina Government has decimated
the leadership of established Islamist terrorist formations and their
sympathetic institutions," according to one analysis, and arrested
over 3,000 people in a sweep last month.
Jammu-Kashmir has following the same pattern. There were constant
protests and brief conflicts between Indians and Pakistani Muslims,
ending in agreements for peace that lasted weeks or months before
low-level violence began again, with each new round of violence worse
than the last.
The relatively small protests of the Recovery and Awakening eras
became widespread protests and an armed insurgency that began
following a disputed election in 1987, as JK entered its generational
Unraveling era.
In 1989, Hizbul Mujahideen was formed. Although it was funded and
supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the
important fact from the point of view of Generational Dynamics is that
it quickly became extremely popular, with thousands of members by the
early 1990s. Hizbul Mujahideen has been riven by splintering and
internal conflicts, but there are today thousands of anti-India
protesters in Indian-governed Kashmir.
There are numerous stories in the press suggesting ways to "solve the
core problems" in Jammu-Kashmir. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, no such solutions exist, and there will be
continue to be clashes in the future. These solutions completely miss
the point. They suggest that some politician pursue peace talks or
something similar. That's always the easy suggestion from people who
have no clue what's going on. These protests are not coming from
politicians. They're growing organically from the population, and no
politician can either cause them or stop them. Generational Dynamics
predicts that Muslims and Hindus will have a full-scale war,
re-fighting the 1947 Partition war that followed the partitioning of
the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. The Hindu and Greater Kashmir and SATP (India) and The News (Pakistan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
