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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 17-Jul-16 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours
  • Extradition of Fethullah Gulen may be linked to reopening Incirlik air base

****
**** Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours
****


[Image: g160716b.jpg]
Fethullah Gulen at his home in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. Erdogan accuses Gulen of organizing the coup attempt (Reuters)

A botched army coup on Friday attempting to overthrow Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his governing Justice and
Development Party (AKP) collapsed within a few hours overnight.

Reports indicate that the army leadership was not involved, and that a
group within the army attempted to overthrow the army leadership as
well as the government.

On Saturday, 3,000 soldiers and 2,000 judges were arrested.

Erdogan is accusing Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim
cleric, living in self-imposed exile in America since splitting with
Erdogan, of orchestrating the coup from his desk in Saylorsburg,
Pennsylvania.

Erdogan has been in power since 2007, so it's not surprising that he's
made a lot of enemies. There are many reasons why some people might
wish to see Erdogan removed from office:
  • Erdogan has become increasingly autocratic, and many accuse
    him of destroying Turkey's democracy. In recent times, he's shut down
    an opposition newspaper and jailed reporters for printing news that he
    didn't like. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
    ) Each time there's a terror attack or other
    crisis, Erdogan finds a way to amass more power to himself. Some
    people fear that he will turn the coup crisis into an opportunity to
    become a dictator.

  • Erdogan has been changing Turkey's character from a secular state
    to a conservative Islamist state, making him a hero to millions of
    pious Turks who felt ignored by the old secular elites. This all came
    to a head in 2007 over the issue of women wearing headscarves. ( "(May 2007) More than a million of secularists rally in Turkey"
    ) However, Ataturk, the revered
    founder of Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, declared
    that Turkey would be a secular state, with freedom of worship for
    people of all religions, including Jews and Christians. Ataturk asked
    the army to be the preserver of the secular state, and many in the
    army today see it as their job to stop Erdogan's changes.

  • In 2010, 30 army officers were arrested after evidence has been
    found that in 2003 they had attempted a coup called "Operation
    Sledgehammer." ( "26-Feb-2010 News - Turkey debates Islam versus secularism"
    ) This caused a
    major confrontation between Erdogan's Islamist AKP party and the army
    that is far from being healed.

There are many reasons for opposition to Erdogan, and many of them
have coalesced under the spiritual leadership of Fethullah Gulen,
whether or not that means that Gulen had a more direct responsibility
for the coup attempt.

Turkey was deeply divided prior to the coup, and those divisions are
probably even deeper now. Millions of Turks say that Erdogan is
authoritarian, anti-secular and Islamist. It's unlikely that Erdogan
will be able to heal these divisions anytime soon.

As one analyst put it, Erdogan has recently gone to great lengths to
reconcile differences externally -- with Russia and Israel -- but what
he really needs to do is reconcile differences internally, within
Turkey itself. Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC and AP and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Extradition of Fethullah Gulen may be linked to reopening Incirlik air base
****


Turkey has a half million man army, the second largest in Nato, and
Turkey occupies the central region in the Mideast, literally bridging
Europe and Asia. Turkey is considered vital to the West for many
reasons:
  • The EU-Turkey refugee deal has slowed the tsunami of Syrian
    refugees flooding into Europe down to a trickle.

  • Turkey is the lynchpin of the Obama administration's strategy in
    Syria and Iraq.

  • Turkey's control of its border with Syria is needed to slow the
    flow of trade between the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
    or Daesh) and the rest of the world.

  • The US military depends on Turkey's Incirlik airbase. The US
    military and 1,500 US troops and personnel stationed there, and the US
    air force uses it as a base from which to launch air strikes against
    ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

For all of these reasons, there is great concern internationally that
the government of Turkey is going to be increasingly unstable in the
next few months.

Incirlik airbase is currently closed since the coup attempt, and the
Obama administration would like it to be reopened.

Turkey apparently wishes for the Obama administration to extradite
Fethullah Gulen back to Turkey.

Analysts have suggested that Turkey will use the Incirlik closure as
leverage to gain the extradition of Gulen.

Gulen lives in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, on a 26-acre compound called
the Golden Generation Worship and Retreat Center. He has denied that
he was involved in the coup, and the Obama administration position is
that Turkey will have to supply some proof if he is to be extradited.

As long time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United
States and the West will be on the other side.

Ten years ago, this trend prediction seemed bizarre, but it's already
been astonishing to see Iran and the West move closer together,
especially through the nuclear deal, while Saudi Arabia and other Arab
countries have become increasingly alienated and distrustful of the
United States under the Obama administration. This is all in the
direction of the trend prediction that I posted years ago.

As I've said before, the reconciliation between Turkey and Russia is
strongly anti-trend, so is not expected to last. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
) If the
coup brings further instability, it will move in the direction of the
above trend, and that will have big effects on the Turkey policies of
Russia, Iran, the U.S., and the West. Anadolu (Ankara) and CNN and AP and BBC (27-Jan-2014)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Justice and Development Party, AKP, Ataturk, Russia, Israel,
Fethullah Gulen, Saylorsburg Pennsylvania,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Iraq, Incirlik airbase, Iran

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John J. Xenakis
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
17-Jul-16 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours - by John J. Xenakis - 07-16-2016, 09:50 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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