07-21-2016, 10:45 PM
*** 22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers
****
![[Image: g160721b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160721b.jpg)
Military officers under arrest after the failed military coup. Front row center is Akin Ozturk, a four-star general and former commander of the Turkish air force. (CNN)
Following last week's attempted coup d'état, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday declared a three-month state of
emergency that gives him near dictatorial powers that cannot be
challenged by the parliament or the courts. Erdogan announced the
following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"As a result of a comprehensive evaluation with
members of the National Security Council [MGK], we have decided to
recommend the declaration of a state of emergency, in line with
Article 120 of our constitution, in order to eliminate the terror
organization which attempted to make a coup, swiftly and
completely."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In order to eliminate this "terror organization," Erdogan executed a
purge the size of which is breathtaking:
In all, 58,000 people have been affected by the purge.
Because of the size and complexity of this purge, many analysts
believe that the purge was in the planning stages for several months,
waiting for the right opportunity to implement it. It was already
obvious in March that something was coming when Erdogan forcibly shut
down the only opposition newspaper and jailed the reporters. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)
To Erdogan, free speech is terrorism.
As I wrote last week in "17-Jul-16 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours"
, Erdogan is blaming the coup on a "terrorist
group" on Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric, living
in self-imposed exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania since splitting
with Erdogan. Apparently Erdogan believes that the 58,000 police,
judges, clerics and social workers that he purged were all part of a
terrorist group being controlled by Gulen from his easy chair in the
Poconos mountains of Pennsylvania.
Erdogan is demanding that Gulen be extradited back to Turkey, but
Obama administration officials are resisting, saying that they're
perfectly willing to extradite him, once Turkey has supplied the
required paperwork, something that will stand up in court providing
evidence that Gulen committed a crime. So far, that evidence has not
been provided.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC
****
**** Turkey moves away from the West
****
Even ignoring the long-term conflict with the PKK terrorists, Turkey
is a deeply divided country split between the religiously conservative
Islamists versus the moderate secularists. This split dates back to
World War I, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed, and Ataturk, the
founder of modern Turkey, declared that Turkey's society would be
secular. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president, has been
reversing that decision, making the society more Islamist.
A number of reports have indicated that young people in Turkey have
been more been more Islamist than the more secularist people in the
older generations, and have felt discriminated against. Erdogan has
been appealing to these younger generations, and it's believed that
many of 58,000 people who were purged were secularists.
The West, especially secular Europe, have become increasingly alarmed
at these changes, especially in the last couple of days. Beyond the
state of emergency, Erdogan has also suspended the European Convention
on Human Rights (EHCR), which guarantees basic rights similar to those
guaranteed by the American Bill of Rights. Turkish officials argue
that human rights will still be preserved, and they point out that
France suspended the EHCR briefly last year, in conjunction with
declaring a state of emergency.
These announcements have revived talks of the death penalty, imposed
media restrictions, blocked websites and placed a ban on academics
leaving the country. Erdogan has specifically stated that the death
penalty might be reinstated.
[indent]<QUOTE>"I will approve capital punishment if it's passed by
parliament. ...
If the EU respects democracy it will accept people's will. The
world is not simply the European Union. Do you have capital
punishment in the US, Russia, China and in many other countries?
Yes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Turkey abolished the death penalty in 2004 as one of the reforms that
had been demanded by the European Union before Turkey would be allowed
to join the EU. Turkish officials have been getting increasingly
annoyed since then because the talks with the EU have repeatedly been
stalled. If Turkey reinstates the death penalty, it will have
enormous symbolic significance, because it could lead to the final end
of any talk about Turkey joining the European Union.
There are strong bonds tying Turkey to the West. Turkey is a member
of Nato and has been so for years. More recently, Turkey and the EU
have signed the EU-Turkey migrant deal that's reduced the flood of
thousands of migrants per day entering Greece from Turkey to just
dozens per day. Going beyond these specific contractual international
relationships. Turkey is considered in the West to be the linchpin of
any Mideast policy, because of its central location.
Despite all that, there is a widespread feeling among authorities in
the West that Turkey is moving away from the West. One example is
that some Turkish officials are suggesting that America has been
partially responsible for the coup because America has given asylum to
Fethullah Gulen.
Long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts exactly
that -- that Turkey will move away from the West. As I've been
writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming
Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States
and the West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)
When I first made this prediction, years ago, Turkey was a close ally
and Iran was a hated enemy. However, this prediction establishes a
trend line that's already being realized -- Iran has been moving
toward the West, and Turkey has been moving away. If you want to
understand where Turkey is going, then follow the Generational
Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you will have the answer.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Jerusalem Post and Al-Jazeera
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel,
Fethullah Gulen, Saylorsburg Pennsylvania, Iran,
China, Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers
- Turkey moves away from the West
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers
****
Military officers under arrest after the failed military coup. Front row center is Akin Ozturk, a four-star general and former commander of the Turkish air force. (CNN)
Following last week's attempted coup d'état, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday declared a three-month state of
emergency that gives him near dictatorial powers that cannot be
challenged by the parliament or the courts. Erdogan announced the
following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"As a result of a comprehensive evaluation with
members of the National Security Council [MGK], we have decided to
recommend the declaration of a state of emergency, in line with
Article 120 of our constitution, in order to eliminate the terror
organization which attempted to make a coup, swiftly and
completely."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In order to eliminate this "terror organization," Erdogan executed a
purge the size of which is breathtaking:
- 7,500 soldiers have been detained, including 118 generals and
admirals
- 8,000 police have been removed from their posts and 1,000
arrested
- 3,000 members of the judiciary, including 1,481 judges, have been
suspended
- 15,200 education ministry officials have lost their jobs
- 21,000 private school teachers have had their licenses
revoked
- 1,577 university deans (faculty heads) have been asked to
resign
- 1,500 finance ministry staff have been removed
- 492 clerics, preachers and religious teachers have been fired
- 393 social policy ministry staff have been dismissed
- 257 prime minister's office staff have been removed
- 100 intelligence officials have been suspended
In all, 58,000 people have been affected by the purge.
Because of the size and complexity of this purge, many analysts
believe that the purge was in the planning stages for several months,
waiting for the right opportunity to implement it. It was already
obvious in March that something was coming when Erdogan forcibly shut
down the only opposition newspaper and jailed the reporters. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)
To Erdogan, free speech is terrorism.
As I wrote last week in "17-Jul-16 World View -- Attempted army coup in Turkey collapses within hours"
, Erdogan is blaming the coup on a "terrorist
group" on Fethullah Gulen, a 76-year-old Turkish Muslim cleric, living
in self-imposed exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania since splitting
with Erdogan. Apparently Erdogan believes that the 58,000 police,
judges, clerics and social workers that he purged were all part of a
terrorist group being controlled by Gulen from his easy chair in the
Poconos mountains of Pennsylvania.
Erdogan is demanding that Gulen be extradited back to Turkey, but
Obama administration officials are resisting, saying that they're
perfectly willing to extradite him, once Turkey has supplied the
required paperwork, something that will stand up in court providing
evidence that Gulen committed a crime. So far, that evidence has not
been provided.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC
****
**** Turkey moves away from the West
****
Even ignoring the long-term conflict with the PKK terrorists, Turkey
is a deeply divided country split between the religiously conservative
Islamists versus the moderate secularists. This split dates back to
World War I, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed, and Ataturk, the
founder of modern Turkey, declared that Turkey's society would be
secular. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president, has been
reversing that decision, making the society more Islamist.
A number of reports have indicated that young people in Turkey have
been more been more Islamist than the more secularist people in the
older generations, and have felt discriminated against. Erdogan has
been appealing to these younger generations, and it's believed that
many of 58,000 people who were purged were secularists.
The West, especially secular Europe, have become increasingly alarmed
at these changes, especially in the last couple of days. Beyond the
state of emergency, Erdogan has also suspended the European Convention
on Human Rights (EHCR), which guarantees basic rights similar to those
guaranteed by the American Bill of Rights. Turkish officials argue
that human rights will still be preserved, and they point out that
France suspended the EHCR briefly last year, in conjunction with
declaring a state of emergency.
These announcements have revived talks of the death penalty, imposed
media restrictions, blocked websites and placed a ban on academics
leaving the country. Erdogan has specifically stated that the death
penalty might be reinstated.
[indent]<QUOTE>"I will approve capital punishment if it's passed by
parliament. ...
If the EU respects democracy it will accept people's will. The
world is not simply the European Union. Do you have capital
punishment in the US, Russia, China and in many other countries?
Yes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Turkey abolished the death penalty in 2004 as one of the reforms that
had been demanded by the European Union before Turkey would be allowed
to join the EU. Turkish officials have been getting increasingly
annoyed since then because the talks with the EU have repeatedly been
stalled. If Turkey reinstates the death penalty, it will have
enormous symbolic significance, because it could lead to the final end
of any talk about Turkey joining the European Union.
There are strong bonds tying Turkey to the West. Turkey is a member
of Nato and has been so for years. More recently, Turkey and the EU
have signed the EU-Turkey migrant deal that's reduced the flood of
thousands of migrants per day entering Greece from Turkey to just
dozens per day. Going beyond these specific contractual international
relationships. Turkey is considered in the West to be the linchpin of
any Mideast policy, because of its central location.
Despite all that, there is a widespread feeling among authorities in
the West that Turkey is moving away from the West. One example is
that some Turkish officials are suggesting that America has been
partially responsible for the coup because America has given asylum to
Fethullah Gulen.
Long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts exactly
that -- that Turkey will move away from the West. As I've been
writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming
Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States
and the West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)
When I first made this prediction, years ago, Turkey was a close ally
and Iran was a hated enemy. However, this prediction establishes a
trend line that's already being realized -- Iran has been moving
toward the West, and Turkey has been moving away. If you want to
understand where Turkey is going, then follow the Generational
Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you will have the answer.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Jerusalem Post and Al-Jazeera
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel,
Fethullah Gulen, Saylorsburg Pennsylvania, Iran,
China, Pakistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
