05-16-2016, 10:46 PM
*** 17-May-16 World View -- Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
****
![[Image: g160516b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160516b.jpg)
ISIS in Libya
The headline on this article seems a bit perverse, doesn't it. How is
lifting the arms embargo on Libya going to fight ISIS? A lot of
people are wondering exactly that.
On Monday, officials from 25 countries in Europe and the Middle East
met in Vienna, in a meeting jointly chaired by the U.S. and Italy, to
discuss what to do about the rapid growth of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya. The decision was to
supply arms to Libya's "unity government," the Government of National
Accord (GNA), which is backed by the United Nations.
Despite the continuing growth of the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya, and the danger that this represents
not only to northern Africa but also to Europe, Western powers are
unable to agree on a form of military action that will destroy ISIS or
even stop its growth. As we reported in January, Western countries
felt that it was urgent to mount a military action in Libya by the
beginning of March. ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
)
However Italy, Libya's former colonial power, has always insisted that
Libya's government had to approve any Western military action before
it could occur. That's been a continuing problem, since there are two
major governments in Libya, one in Tripoli in charge of western Libya
and one in Tobruk in charge of eastern Libya. There are also nearly
2,000 militias running different parts of Libya.
The United Nations approved Government of National Accord (GNA) has
received some level of approval from the government in Tripoli, but
little from the government in Tobruk. The GNA controls only a
fraction of Libya, and only a fraction of the militias.
The result is that Italy has decided that it's too early to send in
troops. Italy's defense minister Roberta Pinotti says, "The first
step to stabilize Libya is having a government that can represent the
different parts, and can thus take the necessary step to make a
request to the international community."
Reports in March seemed to suggest that Italy might send up to 5,000
troops. By late April, that number was said to be closer to 900. But
now, Italy will not even contribute troops to a peacekeeping force,
and reports indicate that the U.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSML)
would instead be bolstered by Nepalese troops instead.
Monday's decision to lift the arms embargo in Libya has been derided
by some analysts as "kicking the can down the road." First, Libya is
already awash in weapons that were left behind in weapons stores
previously owned by Muammar Gaddafi before he was overthrown. Second,
the government in Tobruk has been receiving weapons allies, and so has
gotten around the embargo. Third, lifting the arms embargo may end up
benefitting ISIS, by making it easier for them to import arms.
The bottom line is that Western nations can only watch as ISIS becomes
larger and more powerful in Libya. Western leaders and Western
publics have little appetite for any military intervention in Libya,
and so it will probably take some major crisis event to change things.
BBC and
Washington Post and Guardian (London) and Washington Post
****
**** ISIS continues to grow in Libya in size and effectiveness
****
The ISIS stronghold in Libya is in Sirte, from which it controls a
strip of more than 250 km (155 miles) of Libya’s central coastline,
from which it has launched attacks to the east, west and south. ISIS
forces last week launched a surprise attack on local militias,
enabling it to capture several towns southwest of Sirte, increasing
the area it controls.
There are signs of increased cooperation between Boko Haram in Nigeria
and ISIS in Libya. Both Boko Haram and ISIS have become increasingly
effective with time, and analysts are now concerned that the ties
between the two terrorist organizations could herald a push south into
the vast, lawless Sahel region and create a springboard for wider
attacks.
ISIS has also been stepping up attacks on neighboring Tunisia from its
strongholds in Libya, where it has set up training camps. In March,
ISIS launched a major assault on the town of Ben Guerdane in Tunisia,
on the border with Libya. More than 4,000 Tunisians are thought to
have left to fight for ISIS and other militant groups in Iraq and
Syria. Some are returning to join ISIS in Libya, threatening more
attacks on Tunisia.
Last week, the United States said it would give jeeps, communications
technology and small aircraft to Tunisia to help protect the border
with Libya. The US is already striking training camps in Libya to
protect Tunisia. ( "20-Feb-16 World View -- US warplanes strike suspected ISIS training base in Libya"
)
Concerns are also growing because of the EU-Turkey migrant deal, which
has reduced the flow of migrants from Turkey into Greece. The flow of
migrants from Syria and Iraq has been irrepressible, and reports
indicate that human traffickers are planning to use different routes.
It's possible that there may be hundreds of thousands of migrants
crossing from Libya to Europe this summer. Many of the human
traffickers in Libya are part of ISIS, and the surge in migrants will
pour a lot of money into ISIS coffers. Telegraph (London) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Reuters and Business Insider
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Sirte, Tripoli, Tobruk, Italy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Roberta Pinotti,
U.N. Support Mission in Libya, UNSML, Nepal, Muammar Gaddafi,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Tunisia, Ben Guerdane, Turkey
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
- ISIS continues to grow in Libya in size and effectiveness
****
**** Western nations agree to lift arms embargo on Libya to fight ISIS
****
![[Image: g160516b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160516b.jpg)
ISIS in Libya
The headline on this article seems a bit perverse, doesn't it. How is
lifting the arms embargo on Libya going to fight ISIS? A lot of
people are wondering exactly that.
On Monday, officials from 25 countries in Europe and the Middle East
met in Vienna, in a meeting jointly chaired by the U.S. and Italy, to
discuss what to do about the rapid growth of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya. The decision was to
supply arms to Libya's "unity government," the Government of National
Accord (GNA), which is backed by the United Nations.
Despite the continuing growth of the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Libya, and the danger that this represents
not only to northern Africa but also to Europe, Western powers are
unable to agree on a form of military action that will destroy ISIS or
even stop its growth. As we reported in January, Western countries
felt that it was urgent to mount a military action in Libya by the
beginning of March. ( "6-Jan-16 World View -- US, Britain, France preparing new Libya military offensive early in 2016"
)
However Italy, Libya's former colonial power, has always insisted that
Libya's government had to approve any Western military action before
it could occur. That's been a continuing problem, since there are two
major governments in Libya, one in Tripoli in charge of western Libya
and one in Tobruk in charge of eastern Libya. There are also nearly
2,000 militias running different parts of Libya.
The United Nations approved Government of National Accord (GNA) has
received some level of approval from the government in Tripoli, but
little from the government in Tobruk. The GNA controls only a
fraction of Libya, and only a fraction of the militias.
The result is that Italy has decided that it's too early to send in
troops. Italy's defense minister Roberta Pinotti says, "The first
step to stabilize Libya is having a government that can represent the
different parts, and can thus take the necessary step to make a
request to the international community."
Reports in March seemed to suggest that Italy might send up to 5,000
troops. By late April, that number was said to be closer to 900. But
now, Italy will not even contribute troops to a peacekeeping force,
and reports indicate that the U.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSML)
would instead be bolstered by Nepalese troops instead.
Monday's decision to lift the arms embargo in Libya has been derided
by some analysts as "kicking the can down the road." First, Libya is
already awash in weapons that were left behind in weapons stores
previously owned by Muammar Gaddafi before he was overthrown. Second,
the government in Tobruk has been receiving weapons allies, and so has
gotten around the embargo. Third, lifting the arms embargo may end up
benefitting ISIS, by making it easier for them to import arms.
The bottom line is that Western nations can only watch as ISIS becomes
larger and more powerful in Libya. Western leaders and Western
publics have little appetite for any military intervention in Libya,
and so it will probably take some major crisis event to change things.
BBC and
Washington Post and Guardian (London) and Washington Post
****
**** ISIS continues to grow in Libya in size and effectiveness
****
The ISIS stronghold in Libya is in Sirte, from which it controls a
strip of more than 250 km (155 miles) of Libya’s central coastline,
from which it has launched attacks to the east, west and south. ISIS
forces last week launched a surprise attack on local militias,
enabling it to capture several towns southwest of Sirte, increasing
the area it controls.
There are signs of increased cooperation between Boko Haram in Nigeria
and ISIS in Libya. Both Boko Haram and ISIS have become increasingly
effective with time, and analysts are now concerned that the ties
between the two terrorist organizations could herald a push south into
the vast, lawless Sahel region and create a springboard for wider
attacks.
ISIS has also been stepping up attacks on neighboring Tunisia from its
strongholds in Libya, where it has set up training camps. In March,
ISIS launched a major assault on the town of Ben Guerdane in Tunisia,
on the border with Libya. More than 4,000 Tunisians are thought to
have left to fight for ISIS and other militant groups in Iraq and
Syria. Some are returning to join ISIS in Libya, threatening more
attacks on Tunisia.
Last week, the United States said it would give jeeps, communications
technology and small aircraft to Tunisia to help protect the border
with Libya. The US is already striking training camps in Libya to
protect Tunisia. ( "20-Feb-16 World View -- US warplanes strike suspected ISIS training base in Libya"
)
Concerns are also growing because of the EU-Turkey migrant deal, which
has reduced the flow of migrants from Turkey into Greece. The flow of
migrants from Syria and Iraq has been irrepressible, and reports
indicate that human traffickers are planning to use different routes.
It's possible that there may be hundreds of thousands of migrants
crossing from Libya to Europe this summer. Many of the human
traffickers in Libya are part of ISIS, and the surge in migrants will
pour a lot of money into ISIS coffers. Telegraph (London) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Reuters and Business Insider
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Sirte, Tripoli, Tobruk, Italy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Roberta Pinotti,
U.N. Support Mission in Libya, UNSML, Nepal, Muammar Gaddafi,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, Tunisia, Ben Guerdane, Turkey
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe