08-16-2016, 09:14 PM
*** 17-Aug-16 World View -- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia
****
![[Image: g160816b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160816b.jpg)
Russian bombers take off from Iranian Hamedan air base on Tuesday (Mehr)
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that it's cleared the way for
Russian bombers to travel across Iraq's airspace traveling from an
Iran airbase to bomb targets in Syria.
On the same day, Iran announced that Russia's bombers will be
stationed at an Iranian airbase near Hamadan, a city in western Iran.
This will be the first time since World War II that Iran will permit
foreign military actions to be launched from Iran's soil.
According to Pentagon spokesman Col. Chris Garver:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"They informed us they were coming through, and we
> ensured safety of flight as those bombers passed through the area
> and toward their target and then when they passed out [of Syria]
> again."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Tuesday is not the first time Russia has launched airstrikes from
outside of Syria. Last October, Russia began launching long-range
rockets into Syria from the Caspian Sea. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)
Tuesday's announcement takes Russia's military dominance of the
Mideast one step further. VOA and AEI Iran Tracker and Russia Today
****
**** Continuing Mideast realignment: Russia and Iran vs Saudi Arabia
****
According to Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National
Security Council:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Cooperation between Tehran and Moscow to fight
> against terrorism in Syria is strategic and we exchange our
> capacities and possibilities in this regard. ...
>
> The conditions have grown difficult for the terrorists due to the
> constructive and extensive cooperation among Iran, Russia, Syria
> and the resistance front and this trend will continue with new and
> massive operations until their full annihilation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At the same time, Shamkhani was critical of Saudi Arabia:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is not acceptable for the Muslim world to see
> Saudi Arabia investing towards the empowerment of terrorist and
> takfiri groups [non-believers] instead of fighting the occupation
> by the Zionist regime [Israel]."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Shamkhani's use of "takfiri groups" is purposely ambiguous. For the
West, he undoubtedly wanted listeners to interpret "takfiri groups" as
a reference to so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
This is the game everyone is playing in the Mideast. Iran, Syria,
Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all claim that they're targeting ISIS,
but in fact Iran, Syria and Russia have done very little to target
ISIS, but instead consider all Sunni civilians in Syria to be
terrorists and takfiri, and have been targeting them.
Indeed, Syrian warplanes, aided by Russia, have for five years been
targeting schools, hospitals, and neighborhoods of ordinary Sunni
civilians, including women and children, whom they consider to be like
cockroaches to be exterminated, with huge barrel bombs laden with
explosives, metal and chemical weapons (chlorine). And on Tuesday,
Human Rights Watch reported that Syrian and Russian warplanes are
using incendiary weapons like napalm to create massive explosive fires
in civilian neighborhoods and other Sunni targets.
So when Shamkhani blames Saudi Arabia for "the empowerment of
terrorist and takfiri groups," he's referring to Saudi support for any
Sunnis in Syria, even women and children. The inference to be drawn
from Shamkhani's remarks is that the stationing of Russia's warplanes
on Iranian soil is directed at their centuries-old enemy, Saudi
Arabia, as well as anyone in Syria.
And indeed, that's obviously true. With the US in control of Iraqi
airspace, the Saudis could feel protected from an Iranian attack. But
now the US is giving way to Russia, as well as to Iran, and this will
only cause the Saudis to feel far less secure.
Once again, a new event is emerging that validates the Generational
Dynamics predictions made ten years ago. Long-time readers know that
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the
West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)
When I first made this prediction, years ago, it seemed almost
psychopathic to suggest that Iran was going to be America's ally.
However, regular readers know that for the last few years there have
been a regular series of events that move the Mideast along the
predicted trend line, with Syria, Russia and Iran more closely allied,
and with close cooperation from the US and the West. At the same
time, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia have been getting more
and more distant, as I've reported many times since the "Arab Spring"
in 2011. If you want to understand where the Mideast is going, then
follow the Generational Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you
will have the answer. FARS (Tehran) and AFP
****
**** Generational alignments of the world's religions - hypothesis
****
I've been writing for a long time that there's a centuries-old
historic alignment between Hindus and Shia Muslims. I'd now like to
expand that concept to discuss a hypothesis involving historic
religious alignments.
The first observation is that if Hinduism is aligned with Shia Islam,
then it makes sense that Buddhism is aligned with Sunni Islam. The
reason that this makes sense is that Hinduism and Buddhism are bitter
historic enemies, just as Shia and Sunni Buddhism are bitter historic
enemies. So if Shias and Hindus are aligned, it makes sense that
Sunnis and Buddhists should be aligned as well.
Also, for reasons that I'll explain below, I believe that Hindus/Shias
are aligned with Jews, Protestants and Orthodox Christians, while
Buddhists/Sunnis are aligned with Catholics.
To test this, I've gone to the CIA Fact Book, and made a list of
countries that are predominantly one of these religions:
Examining this list, we can see that the hypothesis probably doesn't
apply to Japan, N. Korea or S. Korea, but this isn't surprising, since
I believe that this hypothesis mainly applies to Europe, the Mideast
and Central Asia, where the most wars have been fought between
Buddhists and Hindus or Muslims, which is not the case for Japan or
Korea, where the main wars have been fought with each other and with
China.
The next observation is that religions can be split into two groups:
By "universal religions," I mean religions that can spread to any
country, and have done so.
By "targeted religions," I mean religions that target a specific
regional or national population on a geographic basis. You can be a
"Catholic" anywhere in the world, but you can't just be an "Orthodox
Christian," unless you're a "Greek Orthodox" or "Russian Orthodox" or
some other branch. The same thing is true of the Protestant religion,
which has about 20 different churches in the United States alone, each
targeting a different group. There are only three religions that have
"gone viral" and become virtually universal: Catholicism, Sunni Islam
and Buddhism. For example, in China, you'll find plenty of Catholics,
plenty of Sunni Muslims, and plenty of Buddhists, but few Greek
Orthodox or Shia Muslims or Hindus.
So when we look at which countries will be aligned in the coming Clash
of Civilizations world war, the hypothesis is the "universal religion"
countries will be aligned against the "targeted religion" countries.
Obviously, this hypothesis is a very broad generalization, and there
are exceptions that one can point to. But in any generational crisis
war, these are the alignments that I expect to see.
The final observation is that these alignments would also apply
throughout history. We can therefore provide two lists of historical
dynasties that correspond to the above groups of religions:
This is a first pass at a hypothesis relating the world's religions to
each other in a significant way. There are still details to be filled
in, and exceptions to be enumerated and explained, but I believe that
the core of this hypothesis is valid. And if it can be properly
defined, it will be a powerful generational tool in analyzing history
and in predicting future trends and events. CIA World Fact Book - Religions
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Iran, Hamadan, Hamedan,
Chris Garver, Iraq, Syria, Caspian Sea, takfiri,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ali Shamkhani, Saudi Arabia, Human Rights Watch, napalm,
Hindu, Shia Islam, Jews, Protestants, Orthodox Chrstians,
Buddhists, Sunni Islam, Catholics,
universal religions, targeted religions
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia
- Continuing Mideast realignment: Russia and Iran vs Saudi Arabia
- Generational alignments of the world's religions - hypothesis
****
**** Russia-Iran airbase agreement further isolates Saudi Arabia
****
Russian bombers take off from Iranian Hamedan air base on Tuesday (Mehr)
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that it's cleared the way for
Russian bombers to travel across Iraq's airspace traveling from an
Iran airbase to bomb targets in Syria.
On the same day, Iran announced that Russia's bombers will be
stationed at an Iranian airbase near Hamadan, a city in western Iran.
This will be the first time since World War II that Iran will permit
foreign military actions to be launched from Iran's soil.
According to Pentagon spokesman Col. Chris Garver:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"They informed us they were coming through, and we
> ensured safety of flight as those bombers passed through the area
> and toward their target and then when they passed out [of Syria]
> again."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Tuesday is not the first time Russia has launched airstrikes from
outside of Syria. Last October, Russia began launching long-range
rockets into Syria from the Caspian Sea. ( "8-Oct-15 World View -- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea"
)
Tuesday's announcement takes Russia's military dominance of the
Mideast one step further. VOA and AEI Iran Tracker and Russia Today
****
**** Continuing Mideast realignment: Russia and Iran vs Saudi Arabia
****
According to Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National
Security Council:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Cooperation between Tehran and Moscow to fight
> against terrorism in Syria is strategic and we exchange our
> capacities and possibilities in this regard. ...
>
> The conditions have grown difficult for the terrorists due to the
> constructive and extensive cooperation among Iran, Russia, Syria
> and the resistance front and this trend will continue with new and
> massive operations until their full annihilation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At the same time, Shamkhani was critical of Saudi Arabia:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is not acceptable for the Muslim world to see
> Saudi Arabia investing towards the empowerment of terrorist and
> takfiri groups [non-believers] instead of fighting the occupation
> by the Zionist regime [Israel]."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Shamkhani's use of "takfiri groups" is purposely ambiguous. For the
West, he undoubtedly wanted listeners to interpret "takfiri groups" as
a reference to so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
This is the game everyone is playing in the Mideast. Iran, Syria,
Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all claim that they're targeting ISIS,
but in fact Iran, Syria and Russia have done very little to target
ISIS, but instead consider all Sunni civilians in Syria to be
terrorists and takfiri, and have been targeting them.
Indeed, Syrian warplanes, aided by Russia, have for five years been
targeting schools, hospitals, and neighborhoods of ordinary Sunni
civilians, including women and children, whom they consider to be like
cockroaches to be exterminated, with huge barrel bombs laden with
explosives, metal and chemical weapons (chlorine). And on Tuesday,
Human Rights Watch reported that Syrian and Russian warplanes are
using incendiary weapons like napalm to create massive explosive fires
in civilian neighborhoods and other Sunni targets.
So when Shamkhani blames Saudi Arabia for "the empowerment of
terrorist and takfiri groups," he's referring to Saudi support for any
Sunnis in Syria, even women and children. The inference to be drawn
from Shamkhani's remarks is that the stationing of Russia's warplanes
on Iranian soil is directed at their centuries-old enemy, Saudi
Arabia, as well as anyone in Syria.
And indeed, that's obviously true. With the US in control of Iraqi
airspace, the Saudis could feel protected from an Iranian attack. But
now the US is giving way to Russia, as well as to Iran, and this will
only cause the Saudis to feel far less secure.
Once again, a new event is emerging that validates the Generational
Dynamics predictions made ten years ago. Long-time readers know that
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be one side, and India, Iran, the United States and the
West will be on the other side. ( "8-Jul-16 World View -- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia"
)
When I first made this prediction, years ago, it seemed almost
psychopathic to suggest that Iran was going to be America's ally.
However, regular readers know that for the last few years there have
been a regular series of events that move the Mideast along the
predicted trend line, with Syria, Russia and Iran more closely allied,
and with close cooperation from the US and the West. At the same
time, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia have been getting more
and more distant, as I've reported many times since the "Arab Spring"
in 2011. If you want to understand where the Mideast is going, then
follow the Generational Dynamics trend lines and forecasts, and you
will have the answer. FARS (Tehran) and AFP
****
**** Generational alignments of the world's religions - hypothesis
****
I've been writing for a long time that there's a centuries-old
historic alignment between Hindus and Shia Muslims. I'd now like to
expand that concept to discuss a hypothesis involving historic
religious alignments.
The first observation is that if Hinduism is aligned with Shia Islam,
then it makes sense that Buddhism is aligned with Sunni Islam. The
reason that this makes sense is that Hinduism and Buddhism are bitter
historic enemies, just as Shia and Sunni Buddhism are bitter historic
enemies. So if Shias and Hindus are aligned, it makes sense that
Sunnis and Buddhists should be aligned as well.
Also, for reasons that I'll explain below, I believe that Hindus/Shias
are aligned with Jews, Protestants and Orthodox Christians, while
Buddhists/Sunnis are aligned with Catholics.
To test this, I've gone to the CIA Fact Book, and made a list of
countries that are predominantly one of these religions:
- Hindu: Fiji (Protestant 45%, Hindu 27.9%), Guyana (Protestant
30.5%, Hindu 28.4%), India (note: Buddhist:0%), Mauritius, Nepal,
- Shia Muslim: Iran, Bahrain
- Buddhist: Bhutan, Burma/Myanmar, Cambodia, China (18.2%), Japan,
North Korea, South Korea, Laos, Macau, Mongolia, Singapore, Sri Lanka
(Sinhalese 70.2%, vs Hindu Tamils)
- Sunni Muslim: Indonesia, Malaysia
Examining this list, we can see that the hypothesis probably doesn't
apply to Japan, N. Korea or S. Korea, but this isn't surprising, since
I believe that this hypothesis mainly applies to Europe, the Mideast
and Central Asia, where the most wars have been fought between
Buddhists and Hindus or Muslims, which is not the case for Japan or
Korea, where the main wars have been fought with each other and with
China.
The next observation is that religions can be split into two groups:
- Universal religions: Catholicism, Sunni Islam,
Buddhism.
- Targeted religions: Protestant Christianity, Orthodox
Christianity, Shia Islam, Hinduism, Taoism, Judaism
By "universal religions," I mean religions that can spread to any
country, and have done so.
By "targeted religions," I mean religions that target a specific
regional or national population on a geographic basis. You can be a
"Catholic" anywhere in the world, but you can't just be an "Orthodox
Christian," unless you're a "Greek Orthodox" or "Russian Orthodox" or
some other branch. The same thing is true of the Protestant religion,
which has about 20 different churches in the United States alone, each
targeting a different group. There are only three religions that have
"gone viral" and become virtually universal: Catholicism, Sunni Islam
and Buddhism. For example, in China, you'll find plenty of Catholics,
plenty of Sunni Muslims, and plenty of Buddhists, but few Greek
Orthodox or Shia Muslims or Hindus.
So when we look at which countries will be aligned in the coming Clash
of Civilizations world war, the hypothesis is the "universal religion"
countries will be aligned against the "targeted religion" countries.
Obviously, this hypothesis is a very broad generalization, and there
are exceptions that one can point to. But in any generational crisis
war, these are the alignments that I expect to see.
The final observation is that these alignments would also apply
throughout history. We can therefore provide two lists of historical
dynasties that correspond to the above groups of religions:
- Dynasties for targeted religions: Parthian - Sasanian -
Persian - Shia - Mauryan - Hindu - Slavs - Judaism
- Dynasties for universal religions: Seleucid - Bactrian -
Arabian - Marwanians - Sunni - Khorasan - Abbasids - Mongols - Tartars
- Turks - Ottomans - Buddhist
This is a first pass at a hypothesis relating the world's religions to
each other in a significant way. There are still details to be filled
in, and exceptions to be enumerated and explained, but I believe that
the core of this hypothesis is valid. And if it can be properly
defined, it will be a powerful generational tool in analyzing history
and in predicting future trends and events. CIA World Fact Book - Religions
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Iran, Hamadan, Hamedan,
Chris Garver, Iraq, Syria, Caspian Sea, takfiri,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ali Shamkhani, Saudi Arabia, Human Rights Watch, napalm,
Hindu, Shia Islam, Jews, Protestants, Orthodox Chrstians,
Buddhists, Sunni Islam, Catholics,
universal religions, targeted religions
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
