08-27-2016, 09:52 PM
*** 28-Aug-16 World View -- Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hungary may build a second 'massive' fence to block migrants from Serbia
****
![[Image: g160827b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160827b.jpg)
Refugees camped on the Serbian side of the border with Hungary (Balkan Insight)
Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán announced that Hungary may erect
a second fence along the border with Serbia, parallel to the existing
fence. The existing 500 km fence was built hastily last year in
September, in defiance of European Union criticisms. It's a
four-meter-high razor wire fence that has slowed, but not stopped, the
flow of migrants from Serbia. The new "massive" fence, if erected,
will use "the most modern technology."
The new fence will be built if the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses.
Last year, about 400,000 migrants crossed into Hungary from Serbia.
That's been reduced to 18,000 in 2016, because of the EU-Turkey deal,
but it's expected that the massive flood of migrants would return if
the deal collapsed.
Orbán announced other steps as well. Hungary will increase the number
of border police by 3,000, to 47,000 from 44,000. According to Orbán,
"Then if it does not work with nice words, we will have to stop them
with force, and we will do so."
Hungary has already passed a law imposing a three-year prison sentence
on those who cross its borders illegally.
The EU government in Brussels has announced a plan to allow a limited
number of migrants to enter Europe, and then to resettle them in all
28 countries in the EU, according to a quota system. Orbán has
scheduled a referendum for October 2 on whether to accept migrants for
resettlement. Balkan Insight and Reuters and Russia Today
****
**** Greece makes contingency plans for 180,000 more migrants
****
If the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses, then Greece can expect an
additional 180,000 migrants and refugees from Turkey to reach Greece
this year. Since Turkey's July 15 attempted coup, the number of
migrants reaching Greece has gone from almost zero to about 100 per
day. ( "18-Aug-16 World View -- Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup"
)
Greece has been working to upgrade its overcrowded refugee camps,
which have been described as abysmal, where security is lax and
mothers with babies are forced to sleep on the ground in makeshift
tents. Conditions are particularly bad on the Greek islands in the
Aegean Sea -- Lesvos, Chios and Samos -- with new migrants arriving
every day, but unable to travel any further.
Greece has been building new refugee camps to reduce the overcrowding.
It's estimated that there are about 50,000 refugees currently stranded
in Greece. During the June 9 to July 30 period, 27,592 refugees and
migrants went through the pre-registration process, with 57% of them
being men and 43% women, plus thousands of children, both
unaccompanied or with a parent. Greek Reporter
****
**** Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal
****
The issue of Syrian migrants in EU has rarely been in the news
recently, so most people think that the problem is completely solved.
Americans in particular have no clue what's going on in the world
beyond Donald Trump's latest immigration plan or Hillary Clinton's
latest e-mail explanation.
Nonetheless, there is a growing anger in Turkey that could lead to the
collapse of the EU-Turkey migrant deal in September, as further
negotiations proceed between the two parties. This anger was very
evident several days ago, when US vice president Joseph Biden visited
Ankara and was snubbed by obviously furious, stone-faced Turkish
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Much of Turkey's anger comes from a lack of support following the July
15 attempted coup combined with a series of horrific terror attacks
perpetrated by both the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the
so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS,
ISIL, Daesh). These coup threatened Turkey's entire government, and
the terror attacks are much worse than anything that Europe has
experienced, and yet from Turkey's point of view, EU officials have
done nothing but criticize Turkey's attempts to recover from the coup
attempt and terror attacks. Turkey also points out that the terror
attacks are a threat to all of Europe, as well as Turkey.
With regard to the migrant deal itself, Turkey's view is that they've
fulfilled their commitments, but the EU hasn't. In particular:
Turkey also points out that it has taken in at least 2.7 million
Syrian refugees and houses 270,000 in 26 provisional refugee camps
with food, health and education services as well as psychological
support, vocational education and social activities, and has spent 7
billion euros meeting their needs.
For Europe, the main issue is human rights in Turkey. Even before the
July 15 coup, Turkey had already shut down the country's main
opposition media group. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)
Since the coup, Erdogan has conducted a purge that can only be
described as breathtaking, arresting thousands of soldiers and policy,
and firing thousands more judges, teachers and clerics. In all,
58,000 people have been affected by the purge. ( "22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West"
)
EU considers Erdogan's actions to be a major human rights violation,
inconsistent with EU law, requiring remediation before the visa
liberation can occur. However, even that reason doesn't excuse the 3
billion euros in aid that hasn't been paid.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu makes it clear that Turkey
sees the agreement so far as completely one-sided:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It cannot be that everything that is good for the
> E.U. is implemented by our side, but Turkey gets nothing in
> return.
>
> I don’t want to talk about the worst-case scenario. But it’s
> clear that we either apply all treaties at the same time or we put
> them all aside."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Negotiations to overcome these differences will begin in September.
If no agreement is reached by October, then Turkey could gradually
increase the flow of migrants to Greece, and could also refuse to
implement other parts of the EU-Turkey deal, such as the "readmission
agreement," which would permit Europe to send migrants not granted
asylum back to Turkey. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Serbia,
Greece, Lesvos, Chios, Samos,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Joseph Biden,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hungary may build a second 'massive' fence to block migrants from Serbia
- Greece makes contingency plans for 180,000 more migrants
- Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal
****
**** Hungary may build a second 'massive' fence to block migrants from Serbia
****
Refugees camped on the Serbian side of the border with Hungary (Balkan Insight)
Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán announced that Hungary may erect
a second fence along the border with Serbia, parallel to the existing
fence. The existing 500 km fence was built hastily last year in
September, in defiance of European Union criticisms. It's a
four-meter-high razor wire fence that has slowed, but not stopped, the
flow of migrants from Serbia. The new "massive" fence, if erected,
will use "the most modern technology."
The new fence will be built if the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses.
Last year, about 400,000 migrants crossed into Hungary from Serbia.
That's been reduced to 18,000 in 2016, because of the EU-Turkey deal,
but it's expected that the massive flood of migrants would return if
the deal collapsed.
Orbán announced other steps as well. Hungary will increase the number
of border police by 3,000, to 47,000 from 44,000. According to Orbán,
"Then if it does not work with nice words, we will have to stop them
with force, and we will do so."
Hungary has already passed a law imposing a three-year prison sentence
on those who cross its borders illegally.
The EU government in Brussels has announced a plan to allow a limited
number of migrants to enter Europe, and then to resettle them in all
28 countries in the EU, according to a quota system. Orbán has
scheduled a referendum for October 2 on whether to accept migrants for
resettlement. Balkan Insight and Reuters and Russia Today
****
**** Greece makes contingency plans for 180,000 more migrants
****
If the EU-Turkey migrant deal collapses, then Greece can expect an
additional 180,000 migrants and refugees from Turkey to reach Greece
this year. Since Turkey's July 15 attempted coup, the number of
migrants reaching Greece has gone from almost zero to about 100 per
day. ( "18-Aug-16 World View -- Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup"
)
Greece has been working to upgrade its overcrowded refugee camps,
which have been described as abysmal, where security is lax and
mothers with babies are forced to sleep on the ground in makeshift
tents. Conditions are particularly bad on the Greek islands in the
Aegean Sea -- Lesvos, Chios and Samos -- with new migrants arriving
every day, but unable to travel any further.
Greece has been building new refugee camps to reduce the overcrowding.
It's estimated that there are about 50,000 refugees currently stranded
in Greece. During the June 9 to July 30 period, 27,592 refugees and
migrants went through the pre-registration process, with 57% of them
being men and 43% women, plus thousands of children, both
unaccompanied or with a parent. Greek Reporter
****
**** Increasing anger in Turkey threatens the EU-Turkey migrant deal
****
The issue of Syrian migrants in EU has rarely been in the news
recently, so most people think that the problem is completely solved.
Americans in particular have no clue what's going on in the world
beyond Donald Trump's latest immigration plan or Hillary Clinton's
latest e-mail explanation.
Nonetheless, there is a growing anger in Turkey that could lead to the
collapse of the EU-Turkey migrant deal in September, as further
negotiations proceed between the two parties. This anger was very
evident several days ago, when US vice president Joseph Biden visited
Ankara and was snubbed by obviously furious, stone-faced Turkish
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Much of Turkey's anger comes from a lack of support following the July
15 attempted coup combined with a series of horrific terror attacks
perpetrated by both the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the
so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS,
ISIL, Daesh). These coup threatened Turkey's entire government, and
the terror attacks are much worse than anything that Europe has
experienced, and yet from Turkey's point of view, EU officials have
done nothing but criticize Turkey's attempts to recover from the coup
attempt and terror attacks. Turkey also points out that the terror
attacks are a threat to all of Europe, as well as Turkey.
With regard to the migrant deal itself, Turkey's view is that they've
fulfilled their commitments, but the EU hasn't. In particular:
- Europe promised 3 billion euros in aid for Syrian refugees in
Turkey. That money was due months ago, and has not been paid.
- Under the deal, Europe agreed to take 72,000 of the most
vulnerable refugees, but has only accepted 1,000 so far.
- Under the deal, the Europe promised visa-free travel for all
Turkish citizens in Europe's Schengen Zone by June, and that visa
liberalization has not yet taken place.
Turkey also points out that it has taken in at least 2.7 million
Syrian refugees and houses 270,000 in 26 provisional refugee camps
with food, health and education services as well as psychological
support, vocational education and social activities, and has spent 7
billion euros meeting their needs.
For Europe, the main issue is human rights in Turkey. Even before the
July 15 coup, Turkey had already shut down the country's main
opposition media group. ( "6-Mar-16 World View -- Turkey's 'shameful day for free press' as government seizes Zaman media"
)
Since the coup, Erdogan has conducted a purge that can only be
described as breathtaking, arresting thousands of soldiers and policy,
and firing thousands more judges, teachers and clerics. In all,
58,000 people have been affected by the purge. ( "22-Jul-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West"
)
EU considers Erdogan's actions to be a major human rights violation,
inconsistent with EU law, requiring remediation before the visa
liberation can occur. However, even that reason doesn't excuse the 3
billion euros in aid that hasn't been paid.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu makes it clear that Turkey
sees the agreement so far as completely one-sided:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It cannot be that everything that is good for the
> E.U. is implemented by our side, but Turkey gets nothing in
> return.
>
> I don’t want to talk about the worst-case scenario. But it’s
> clear that we either apply all treaties at the same time or we put
> them all aside."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Negotiations to overcome these differences will begin in September.
If no agreement is reached by October, then Turkey could gradually
increase the flow of migrants to Greece, and could also refuse to
implement other parts of the EU-Turkey deal, such as the "readmission
agreement," which would permit Europe to send migrants not granted
asylum back to Turkey. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Serbia,
Greece, Lesvos, Chios, Samos,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Joseph Biden,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
