09-10-2016, 08:47 PM
*** 11-Sep-16 World View -- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kyrgyzstan's World Nomad Games commemorate lifestyle of Genghis Khan
****
![[Image: g160910b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160910b.jpg)
One horseman knocking another off his horse at the World Nomad Games. (AFP)
There were 40 countries, including Russia, China and the United
States, competing in the World Nomad Games, held in eastern Kyrgyzstan
during the last two weeks, between the Rio 2016 Olympics and the
Paralympics.
The games are a celebration of Central Asia's nomadic heritage, dating
back centuries, including the era of Genghis Khan. During the opening
ceremony, Kyrgyzstan's president Almazbek Atambayev said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In the modern world, people are forgetting their
> history, and there is a threat of extinction for traditional
> cultures. Nomadic civilization is an example of sustainable
> development, which is what all of humanity is looking for
> today."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The star of the show was action film actor Steven Seagal, presumably
publicizing his new movie "The Perfect Weapon." Seagal enjoys a
cult-like following in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and
the audience went wild when Seagal appeared on horseback, dressed as a
khan (ancient Kyrgyz warrior) in armor and rode in on a horse as the
Games’ guest of honor.
The sports include mass-wrestling, eagle hunting. The highlight is
the traditional Central Asian sport buzkashi also known as kok-boru,
"a violent Central Asian form of polo in which two teams battle for
control of a decapitated goat carcass." Kok Boru is described as a
violent and exciting game, akin to polo -- except instead of a ball
the players attempt to score by picking up, carrying, and tossing a
goat carcass, the head and hooves removed, into a circle at the
opposite end of the field. The goat is traditionally slaughtered right
before the game and delivered to the village elder after. Foreign Policy and The Diplomat and Guardian (London) and EurasiaNet
****
**** Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
****
Bombs rained down from warplanes on Saturday on a civilian marketplace
in Idlib, near Aleppo in Syria, killing 37 people, including many
women and children. At least 82 people were killed on Saturday in
bombings from warplanes of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Syria's civilians fear worse violence from the announced
"ceasefire," since the regime is using the opportunity to gain as much
ground as possible before the ceasefire is scheduled to begin on
Monday.
Generally speaking, in any war, a "ceasefire" is bound to be a farce
for several reasons:
In this case, one of the politicians is US Secretary of State John
Kerry. During his tenure, he's stumbled from one foreign policy
disaster to the next, probably still hoping to get a Nobel Peace Prize
if he keeps on trying.
The other politician is Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov who
seems capable of lying about anything and everything, and never makes
a true statement except by accident.
Not directly involved in the deal is Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who has contempt for pretty much everybody, and certainly
sees this agreement as an opportunity to gain a military advantage.
It's been well-publicized for weeks that al-Assad sees the current
battle in Aleppo as an opportunity to strike a fatal blow against
the opposition. According to one analyst:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the regime is unable to retake Aleppo, that will
> demonstrate that they are unable to retake all of Syria. If the
> opposition suffers defeat and is routed from the city, it’s a sign
> the revolution has lost."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This analysis alone means that the ceasefire will not last. The
ceasefire would mean that the status quo is maintained and the
regime will have failed to retake Aleppo. With al-Assad's army in trouble, possibly close to collapse,
he may believe that the battle of Aleppo is an existential crisis for
his regime.
Furthermore, Russia is now the main hegemonic power in the Mideast,
and Russia has made it clear that they want al-Assad in power, so they
will continue to use maximum military violence, irrespective of any
"ceasefire." So if al-Assad has agreed to the ceasefire, as news
reports indicate he has, then he will use it to gain every possible
military advantage, in preparation for what he undoubtedly sees as the
ultimate critical battle of Aleppo. BBC and
Russia Today and CS Monitor and SANA (Syria)
Related Articles
****
**** Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation
****
As I've said before, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
al-Assad is wrong to believe that the recapture of Aleppo would mean
that the revolution is ended. Al-Assad is thinking of his father's
war, which ended when Hafez al-Assad massively slaughtered tens of
thousands of Sunnis in the town of Hama, Syria, in 1982, turning the
town to rubble. But that was a generational crisis war, and so ended
with an "explosive crisis," something I've described
a number of times.
This war is a generational Awakening era war, and the rules are very
different. The biggest difference is that there are plenty of people
in the Sunni opposition today who recall the 1982 massacre, are
prepared for it, and will not let it stop them from protesting and
fighting, even if Aleppo is lost.
Awakening era wars follow a pattern that I've described many times in
countries like Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others.
The Awakening era is the time when the first post-war generation comes
of age, creating a "generation gap," as happened in the United States
in the 1960s. It's characterized by large student protests and
demonstrations, but any armed conflict fizzles quickly. That's what
would have happened in 2011 if Bashar al-Assad hadn't treated peaceful
protests by young people as an excuse to start exterminating all
Sunnis. Today's students' parents were defeated by Hafez al-Assad in
1982, and these students are well aware of that, so they will not let
the loss of one city stop them in 2016.
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kyrgyzstan, World Nomad Games, Russia, China,
Genghis Khan, Almazbek Atambayev, Steven Seagal, kok-boru,
Syria, Idlib, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov,
Hafez al-Assad, Hama, Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kyrgyzstan's World Nomad Games commemorate lifestyle of Genghis Khan
- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
- Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation
****
**** Kyrgyzstan's World Nomad Games commemorate lifestyle of Genghis Khan
****
One horseman knocking another off his horse at the World Nomad Games. (AFP)
There were 40 countries, including Russia, China and the United
States, competing in the World Nomad Games, held in eastern Kyrgyzstan
during the last two weeks, between the Rio 2016 Olympics and the
Paralympics.
The games are a celebration of Central Asia's nomadic heritage, dating
back centuries, including the era of Genghis Khan. During the opening
ceremony, Kyrgyzstan's president Almazbek Atambayev said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In the modern world, people are forgetting their
> history, and there is a threat of extinction for traditional
> cultures. Nomadic civilization is an example of sustainable
> development, which is what all of humanity is looking for
> today."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The star of the show was action film actor Steven Seagal, presumably
publicizing his new movie "The Perfect Weapon." Seagal enjoys a
cult-like following in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and
the audience went wild when Seagal appeared on horseback, dressed as a
khan (ancient Kyrgyz warrior) in armor and rode in on a horse as the
Games’ guest of honor.
The sports include mass-wrestling, eagle hunting. The highlight is
the traditional Central Asian sport buzkashi also known as kok-boru,
"a violent Central Asian form of polo in which two teams battle for
control of a decapitated goat carcass." Kok Boru is described as a
violent and exciting game, akin to polo -- except instead of a ball
the players attempt to score by picking up, carrying, and tossing a
goat carcass, the head and hooves removed, into a circle at the
opposite end of the field. The goat is traditionally slaughtered right
before the game and delivered to the village elder after. Foreign Policy and The Diplomat and Guardian (London) and EurasiaNet
****
**** Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
****
Bombs rained down from warplanes on Saturday on a civilian marketplace
in Idlib, near Aleppo in Syria, killing 37 people, including many
women and children. At least 82 people were killed on Saturday in
bombings from warplanes of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Syria's civilians fear worse violence from the announced
"ceasefire," since the regime is using the opportunity to gain as much
ground as possible before the ceasefire is scheduled to begin on
Monday.
Generally speaking, in any war, a "ceasefire" is bound to be a farce
for several reasons:
- The politicians set up the ceasefire mainly for
self-aggrandizement. Each side lies about its intentions.
- As the date of the "ceasefire" approaches, each side doubles down
on violence, in order to control as much territory as possible before the
ceasefire takes place.
- Each side uses the "ceasefire" as an opportunity to bring in
supplies and weapons, and to restructure their forces in preparation
for the next battle when the "ceasefire" ends.
- Each side feels free to violate the "ceasefire," as long as it can
find an excuse for doing so.
- If the "ceasefire" only applies to some areas, but not to others,
as in the case of this new agreement, then bombings and other attacks
will all substantially increase in the areas not covered. So there
will be same amount of violence during the "ceasefire," but it will be
concentrated on excluded areas.
- When the "ceasefire" ends, each side blames violations by the
other for why it didn't work, and excuses or denies its own
violations.
In this case, one of the politicians is US Secretary of State John
Kerry. During his tenure, he's stumbled from one foreign policy
disaster to the next, probably still hoping to get a Nobel Peace Prize
if he keeps on trying.
The other politician is Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov who
seems capable of lying about anything and everything, and never makes
a true statement except by accident.
Not directly involved in the deal is Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who has contempt for pretty much everybody, and certainly
sees this agreement as an opportunity to gain a military advantage.
It's been well-publicized for weeks that al-Assad sees the current
battle in Aleppo as an opportunity to strike a fatal blow against
the opposition. According to one analyst:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the regime is unable to retake Aleppo, that will
> demonstrate that they are unable to retake all of Syria. If the
> opposition suffers defeat and is routed from the city, it’s a sign
> the revolution has lost."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This analysis alone means that the ceasefire will not last. The
ceasefire would mean that the status quo is maintained and the
regime will have failed to retake Aleppo. With al-Assad's army in trouble, possibly close to collapse,
he may believe that the battle of Aleppo is an existential crisis for
his regime.
Furthermore, Russia is now the main hegemonic power in the Mideast,
and Russia has made it clear that they want al-Assad in power, so they
will continue to use maximum military violence, irrespective of any
"ceasefire." So if al-Assad has agreed to the ceasefire, as news
reports indicate he has, then he will use it to gain every possible
military advantage, in preparation for what he undoubtedly sees as the
ultimate critical battle of Aleppo. BBC and
Russia Today and CS Monitor and SANA (Syria)
Related Articles
- Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds, as US-Russia announce another peace deal (10-Sep-2016)
- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
- US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria (12-Feb-2016)
- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
****
**** Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation
****
As I've said before, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
al-Assad is wrong to believe that the recapture of Aleppo would mean
that the revolution is ended. Al-Assad is thinking of his father's
war, which ended when Hafez al-Assad massively slaughtered tens of
thousands of Sunnis in the town of Hama, Syria, in 1982, turning the
town to rubble. But that was a generational crisis war, and so ended
with an "explosive crisis," something I've described
a number of times.
This war is a generational Awakening era war, and the rules are very
different. The biggest difference is that there are plenty of people
in the Sunni opposition today who recall the 1982 massacre, are
prepared for it, and will not let it stop them from protesting and
fighting, even if Aleppo is lost.
Awakening era wars follow a pattern that I've described many times in
countries like Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others.
The Awakening era is the time when the first post-war generation comes
of age, creating a "generation gap," as happened in the United States
in the 1960s. It's characterized by large student protests and
demonstrations, but any armed conflict fizzles quickly. That's what
would have happened in 2011 if Bashar al-Assad hadn't treated peaceful
protests by young people as an excuse to start exterminating all
Sunnis. Today's students' parents were defeated by Hafez al-Assad in
1982, and these students are well aware of that, so they will not let
the loss of one city stop them in 2016.
Related Articles
- The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan (20-Jul-2016)
- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kyrgyzstan, World Nomad Games, Russia, China,
Genghis Khan, Almazbek Atambayev, Steven Seagal, kok-boru,
Syria, Idlib, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov,
Hafez al-Assad, Hama, Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
