09-29-2016, 10:29 PM
*** 30-Sep-16 World View -- Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
****
![[Image: g160929b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160929b.jpg)
Entrance to historic Sikh place of worship in Kashmir
India's special forces carried out a series of "targeted strikes"
early Thursday morning into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir.
India's military says that they were targeting several "launching
pads" used by Pakistani terrorists as they prepared to cross the line
of control (LOC) separating the India-controlled and
Pakistan-controlled portions of Kashmir, in order to carry out
terrorist attacks. India's military says that dozens of militants
were killed.
This is a new escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan,
because it's the first time in recent years that Indian soldiers
crossed over into Pakistani territory.
The targeted attacks come just a few days after a major September 18
terrorist attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was
a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were
the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in
Kashmir in years.
Indian officials promised retaliation for the Uri attack, and Indian
media have been calling for a swift counter-attack. Now that one has
occurred, Indian officials are congratulatory. A statement by India's
cabinet congratulated the prime minister for "decisively ordering this
surgical operation to demolish the bases and camps of those acting
with impunity against our citizens," and added, "The operation has
been executed with clinical and professional precision by the brave
men of the Indian army."
Furious Pakistani officials responded angrily. Pakistan's Minister of
Defense Mohammad Khawaja Asif response referred to nuclear weapons:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on
> us. Pakistan army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure of
> India. We have not made atomic device to display in a
> showcase. If such a situation arises we will use it and eliminate
> India."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A belief that Pakistan could "eliminate India" with nuclear weapons is
obviously delusional, and an analysis by an Indian journalist says
that India has called "Pakistan's nuclear bluff":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan defense minister Mohammad Khwaja's threat to
> use "tactical" nuclear weapons is not just a case of political
> hyperbole. The notion that nuclear weapons deter retaliation by
> the Indian Army while allowing Pakistan to send jihadis to carry
> out terror strikes in India is a deeply held view in the Pakistani
> establishment. ...
>
> The Pakistan army's "green books" that detail operational
> philosophies, conventional and jihadi outfits, like Lashkar and
> Jaish, and nuclear weapons are a seamless triad. "The Pakistan
> army is perceived to be the center of gravity...of Pakistan which
> is backed by irregular forces (like mujahideen) and is reinforced
> by nuclear weapons," the 2008 edition says.
>
> In crossing the LoC and admitting it, India has taken on this
> nuclear blackmail, well aware that doing so carries the risk of
> escalation. "We are ready. The decision to go ahead with military
> action was taken with the full awareness that overt action can
> come at a cost," said a senior minister in the know of the
> operation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By taunting Pakistan and call its bluff, India is guaranteeing that
there will be retaliation.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're witnessing
here is a series of "regeneracy events" that lead to full-scale
warfare. The word "regeneracy" refers to the fact that civic unity is
regenerated in each country for the first time since the end of the
previous generational crisis war. Each new attack crosses a
previously uncrossed red line, and results in retaliation which does
the same. These tit-for-tat attacks continue to escalate. In this
case, it would mean a major war between two nuclear powers. The use
of nuclear weapons by either Pakistan or India would certain being
other countries into the war, if it hasn't happened already. This is
one of the scenarios that could lead to a new world war in the next
year or two. Indian Express and International Business Times and AFP and Pakistan Today
Related Articles
****
**** China threatens Japan, South Korea and U.S. all in one day
****
South Korea continues to make plans to deploy an advanced
American-supplied Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
defensive missile system -- for protection from missiles launched from
North Korea or China.
China has demanded that the deployment be cancelled, and on Thursday
announced that it "means what it says" when it says it will consider
countermeasures against the planned U.S. deployment.
Meanwhile, Japan is strengthening its ties with Vietnam and the
Philippines in common defense against China's use of military force in
the South China Sea and East China Sea. In particular, China is using
military force to illegally annex regions in the South China Sea
belonging to other countries, according to a judgment by United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague.
Japan has announced that it will step up activity in the South
China Sea through joint training patrols with the United States.
On Thursday, China's Defense Ministry spokesman said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We must solemnly tell Japan this is a
> miscalculation. If Japan wants to have joint patrols or drills in
> waters under Chinese jurisdiction this really is playing with
> fire. China's military will not sit idly by."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So, Thursday was a busy day in Asia. India's special forces invaded
Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, Pakistan promised retaliation, and China
threatened South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Reuters and Reuters
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Uri,
Mohammad Khawaja Asif, regeneracy events,
China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
- China threatens Japan, South Korea and U.S. all in one day
****
**** Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
****
Entrance to historic Sikh place of worship in Kashmir
India's special forces carried out a series of "targeted strikes"
early Thursday morning into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir.
India's military says that they were targeting several "launching
pads" used by Pakistani terrorists as they prepared to cross the line
of control (LOC) separating the India-controlled and
Pakistan-controlled portions of Kashmir, in order to carry out
terrorist attacks. India's military says that dozens of militants
were killed.
This is a new escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan,
because it's the first time in recent years that Indian soldiers
crossed over into Pakistani territory.
The targeted attacks come just a few days after a major September 18
terrorist attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was
a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were
the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in
Kashmir in years.
Indian officials promised retaliation for the Uri attack, and Indian
media have been calling for a swift counter-attack. Now that one has
occurred, Indian officials are congratulatory. A statement by India's
cabinet congratulated the prime minister for "decisively ordering this
surgical operation to demolish the bases and camps of those acting
with impunity against our citizens," and added, "The operation has
been executed with clinical and professional precision by the brave
men of the Indian army."
Furious Pakistani officials responded angrily. Pakistan's Minister of
Defense Mohammad Khawaja Asif response referred to nuclear weapons:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on
> us. Pakistan army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure of
> India. We have not made atomic device to display in a
> showcase. If such a situation arises we will use it and eliminate
> India."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A belief that Pakistan could "eliminate India" with nuclear weapons is
obviously delusional, and an analysis by an Indian journalist says
that India has called "Pakistan's nuclear bluff":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan defense minister Mohammad Khwaja's threat to
> use "tactical" nuclear weapons is not just a case of political
> hyperbole. The notion that nuclear weapons deter retaliation by
> the Indian Army while allowing Pakistan to send jihadis to carry
> out terror strikes in India is a deeply held view in the Pakistani
> establishment. ...
>
> The Pakistan army's "green books" that detail operational
> philosophies, conventional and jihadi outfits, like Lashkar and
> Jaish, and nuclear weapons are a seamless triad. "The Pakistan
> army is perceived to be the center of gravity...of Pakistan which
> is backed by irregular forces (like mujahideen) and is reinforced
> by nuclear weapons," the 2008 edition says.
>
> In crossing the LoC and admitting it, India has taken on this
> nuclear blackmail, well aware that doing so carries the risk of
> escalation. "We are ready. The decision to go ahead with military
> action was taken with the full awareness that overt action can
> come at a cost," said a senior minister in the know of the
> operation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By taunting Pakistan and call its bluff, India is guaranteeing that
there will be retaliation.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're witnessing
here is a series of "regeneracy events" that lead to full-scale
warfare. The word "regeneracy" refers to the fact that civic unity is
regenerated in each country for the first time since the end of the
previous generational crisis war. Each new attack crosses a
previously uncrossed red line, and results in retaliation which does
the same. These tit-for-tat attacks continue to escalate. In this
case, it would mean a major war between two nuclear powers. The use
of nuclear weapons by either Pakistan or India would certain being
other countries into the war, if it hasn't happened already. This is
one of the scenarios that could lead to a new world war in the next
year or two. Indian Express and International Business Times and AFP and Pakistan Today
Related Articles
- New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
- India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
- After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
****
**** China threatens Japan, South Korea and U.S. all in one day
****
South Korea continues to make plans to deploy an advanced
American-supplied Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
defensive missile system -- for protection from missiles launched from
North Korea or China.
China has demanded that the deployment be cancelled, and on Thursday
announced that it "means what it says" when it says it will consider
countermeasures against the planned U.S. deployment.
Meanwhile, Japan is strengthening its ties with Vietnam and the
Philippines in common defense against China's use of military force in
the South China Sea and East China Sea. In particular, China is using
military force to illegally annex regions in the South China Sea
belonging to other countries, according to a judgment by United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague.
Japan has announced that it will step up activity in the South
China Sea through joint training patrols with the United States.
On Thursday, China's Defense Ministry spokesman said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We must solemnly tell Japan this is a
> miscalculation. If Japan wants to have joint patrols or drills in
> waters under Chinese jurisdiction this really is playing with
> fire. China's military will not sit idly by."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So, Thursday was a busy day in Asia. India's special forces invaded
Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, Pakistan promised retaliation, and China
threatened South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Reuters and Reuters
Related Articles
- Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China (11-Aug-2016)
- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Uri,
Mohammad Khawaja Asif, regeneracy events,
China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
