10-01-2016, 09:57 PM
*** 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
****
![[Image: g161001b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161001b.jpg)
Maria Zakharova, Russia's hot Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, warns of 'tectonic shift' in Mideast
As Russia and Syria step up the ferocity of their war crimes, with
warplanes dropping barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas),
phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs, and bunker bombs indiscriminately at
civilian neighborhoods and hospitals in eastern Aleppo in Syria, a
leaked audio released by the NY Times reveals US Secretary of State
John Kerry repeatedly expressing frustration that President Barack
Obama had repeatedly refused to use any military force, when the
opportunity was available, to stop the bloody carnage.
It's widely believed that a major opportunity was lost after Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people, in June
2013. Obama has previous set a "red line" that the US would take
military action in this case, but he flip-flopped and allowed al-Assad
to continue. The US military might have destroyed al-Assad's air
force and blown up his runways, bringing an effective end to
al-Assad's war crimes. Instead, the US simply relinquished Mideast
hegemony to Syria and Russia. Syria and Russia have continued to use
chemical weapons and increasingly destructive weapons on civilians.
By withdrawing from the Mideast, and leaving a vacuum that Russia
filled, it's thought that Obama permitted the greatest geopolitical
and humanitarian disaster in decades to occur, and to worsen every
day.
Only excerpts selected by the NY Times were released from the audio,
but they included the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think you’re looking at three people, four people
> in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I
> lost the argument. ... You have nobody more frustrated than we
> are."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The article doesn't mention who the other people are, but it's
well-known that President Obama eschews anything beyond absolute
minimal use of military force, no matter what the provocation.
It's also known that Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter have
had harsh disagreements over Syria policy. A major disagreement
surfaced just before the recent Syrian "ceasefire," when Kerry and the
Russians had negotiated a bizarre plan that after the ceasefire ended
the violence, then the US and Russia would cooperate on targeting
"terrorists" in Syria. Carter was opposed to this plan, though Obama
eventually OKed. At any rate, the plan is moot now that the Syrians
and Russians have taken advantage of the disastrous ceasefire to
prepare for the massive bombing of Aleppo now taking place.
There are various conspiracy theories floating around about why
Kerry's audio was leaked at this time. The most obvious one is that
with the administration's Syria policy apparently headed for total
disaster, Kerry leaked the audio to protect his own legacy at the
expense of Obama's. Kerry may even still hope that the loons in
Sweden will give him the Nobel Peace Prize when they announce it
October 7. NY Times and VOA and
NY Times (14-Sept)
Related Articles
****
**** Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
****
The situation in Syria is proving to be both a geopolitical and
humanitarian disaster of catastrophic proportions, but also a major
embarrassment to President Obama, who is blamed by many people for
unnecessarily allowing it to happen.
Now, in the last few months of the Obama administration, there are
fears either that Obama might takes some military steps to salvage his
own legacy in Syria, or that the administration that takes office in
January will initiate some military action of its own.
There seems to be little doubt that the US military could overwhelm
Russia's military in Syria, if the will were there to do it. However,
Russia is warning that any US military campaign to oust the Syrian
government of Bashar al-Assad would have disastrous consequences for
the region.
According to Maria Zakharova, spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the US launches a direct aggression against
> Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic
> shift not only in the country, but in the entire region.
>
> [With no government in Damascus, there will be a power vacuum in
> Syria, which] so-called moderates, who are, in reality, not
> moderate at all but just terrorists of all flavors, would fill;
> and there will be no dealing with them,
>
> And later it would be aggravated the way it happened in Iraq. We
> know that [Saddam Hussein’s] Iraqi Army became the basis of the
> Islamic State. Everything that both the [US-led] coalition and
> Russia are fighting now stems from it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
What I found most interesting about this statement is that it doesn't
suggest in any way that US military action would be resisted by
Russia, only that it would have tragic consequences.
The problem is that the US administration really has no way to proceed
at this point. Having refused to use military force in the past, when
stopping al-Assad might have been as simple as destroying his
warplanes and bombing his runways, they've been living in a fantasy
world that if they're nice to the Russians then the Russians will do
as they ask. The current massive destruction of Aleppo shows not only
that the administration was wrong, but also that they were made fools
of.
And having been made fools of, the fear is now that the US, in either
this administration or the next, will use military action in Syria far
beyond what the US has done before.
The following is a personal observation. Russia declared several
months ago that it had met its objectives in Syria, and that it was
withdrawing. After only a few weeks, it was clear that al-Assad's
army would collapse without Russian support, and so Russia had to
reverse its decision to withdraw. The observation is that the
overwhelming assault on east Aleppo almost seems to be an act of
desperation, hoping that a quick victory in Aleppo will be a complete
defeat for the opposition and end the war.
There are two errors in this reasoning. First, because of the large
size of east Aleppo, with a population over 200,000, it's very
unlikely that a quick victory is possible, and it's possible that any
real victory is impossible.
The second error is the belief that if a victory occurs, it will end
the war. As I've written several times in the past,
the war in Syria is a generational Awakening era
war. The rules are different for these wars than for Crisis era wars.
If a generational crisis war occurs, then it will end in some kind of
explosive climax, usually a massive genocide, that will shock everyone
so much that the war really will end. This is what happened in World
War II, for example, after the fall of Berlin and the nuking of
Japanese cities.
But in an Awakening era war, even genocidal actions do not end the war
more than temporarily. This is obviously true in Syria, which is now
split into regions controlled, by Turkey, the Kurds, ISIS, and the
"moderate" rebels, leaving only "Alawite-istan," a small region in
western Syria, still controlled by al-Assad.
So if the observation is correct that the chaotic destruction of east
Aleppo is an act of desperation by Syria and Russia, then we may see
the Syria war end in a way that Russia does not like. Russia Today and VOA
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Russia,
John Kerry, Ash Carter, Maria Zakharova, Alawite-istan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
****
**** Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
****
Maria Zakharova, Russia's hot Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, warns of 'tectonic shift' in Mideast
As Russia and Syria step up the ferocity of their war crimes, with
warplanes dropping barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas),
phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs, and bunker bombs indiscriminately at
civilian neighborhoods and hospitals in eastern Aleppo in Syria, a
leaked audio released by the NY Times reveals US Secretary of State
John Kerry repeatedly expressing frustration that President Barack
Obama had repeatedly refused to use any military force, when the
opportunity was available, to stop the bloody carnage.
It's widely believed that a major opportunity was lost after Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people, in June
2013. Obama has previous set a "red line" that the US would take
military action in this case, but he flip-flopped and allowed al-Assad
to continue. The US military might have destroyed al-Assad's air
force and blown up his runways, bringing an effective end to
al-Assad's war crimes. Instead, the US simply relinquished Mideast
hegemony to Syria and Russia. Syria and Russia have continued to use
chemical weapons and increasingly destructive weapons on civilians.
By withdrawing from the Mideast, and leaving a vacuum that Russia
filled, it's thought that Obama permitted the greatest geopolitical
and humanitarian disaster in decades to occur, and to worsen every
day.
Only excerpts selected by the NY Times were released from the audio,
but they included the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think you’re looking at three people, four people
> in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I
> lost the argument. ... You have nobody more frustrated than we
> are."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The article doesn't mention who the other people are, but it's
well-known that President Obama eschews anything beyond absolute
minimal use of military force, no matter what the provocation.
It's also known that Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter have
had harsh disagreements over Syria policy. A major disagreement
surfaced just before the recent Syrian "ceasefire," when Kerry and the
Russians had negotiated a bizarre plan that after the ceasefire ended
the violence, then the US and Russia would cooperate on targeting
"terrorists" in Syria. Carter was opposed to this plan, though Obama
eventually OKed. At any rate, the plan is moot now that the Syrians
and Russians have taken advantage of the disastrous ceasefire to
prepare for the massive bombing of Aleppo now taking place.
There are various conspiracy theories floating around about why
Kerry's audio was leaked at this time. The most obvious one is that
with the administration's Syria policy apparently headed for total
disaster, Kerry leaked the audio to protect his own legacy at the
expense of Obama's. Kerry may even still hope that the loons in
Sweden will give him the Nobel Peace Prize when they announce it
October 7. NY Times and VOA and
NY Times (14-Sept)
Related Articles
- US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
- Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
- France says there's 'no doubt' that Syria regime used sarin gas (05-Jun-2013)
****
**** Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
****
The situation in Syria is proving to be both a geopolitical and
humanitarian disaster of catastrophic proportions, but also a major
embarrassment to President Obama, who is blamed by many people for
unnecessarily allowing it to happen.
Now, in the last few months of the Obama administration, there are
fears either that Obama might takes some military steps to salvage his
own legacy in Syria, or that the administration that takes office in
January will initiate some military action of its own.
There seems to be little doubt that the US military could overwhelm
Russia's military in Syria, if the will were there to do it. However,
Russia is warning that any US military campaign to oust the Syrian
government of Bashar al-Assad would have disastrous consequences for
the region.
According to Maria Zakharova, spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the US launches a direct aggression against
> Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic
> shift not only in the country, but in the entire region.
>
> [With no government in Damascus, there will be a power vacuum in
> Syria, which] so-called moderates, who are, in reality, not
> moderate at all but just terrorists of all flavors, would fill;
> and there will be no dealing with them,
>
> And later it would be aggravated the way it happened in Iraq. We
> know that [Saddam Hussein’s] Iraqi Army became the basis of the
> Islamic State. Everything that both the [US-led] coalition and
> Russia are fighting now stems from it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
What I found most interesting about this statement is that it doesn't
suggest in any way that US military action would be resisted by
Russia, only that it would have tragic consequences.
The problem is that the US administration really has no way to proceed
at this point. Having refused to use military force in the past, when
stopping al-Assad might have been as simple as destroying his
warplanes and bombing his runways, they've been living in a fantasy
world that if they're nice to the Russians then the Russians will do
as they ask. The current massive destruction of Aleppo shows not only
that the administration was wrong, but also that they were made fools
of.
And having been made fools of, the fear is now that the US, in either
this administration or the next, will use military action in Syria far
beyond what the US has done before.
The following is a personal observation. Russia declared several
months ago that it had met its objectives in Syria, and that it was
withdrawing. After only a few weeks, it was clear that al-Assad's
army would collapse without Russian support, and so Russia had to
reverse its decision to withdraw. The observation is that the
overwhelming assault on east Aleppo almost seems to be an act of
desperation, hoping that a quick victory in Aleppo will be a complete
defeat for the opposition and end the war.
There are two errors in this reasoning. First, because of the large
size of east Aleppo, with a population over 200,000, it's very
unlikely that a quick victory is possible, and it's possible that any
real victory is impossible.
The second error is the belief that if a victory occurs, it will end
the war. As I've written several times in the past,
the war in Syria is a generational Awakening era
war. The rules are different for these wars than for Crisis era wars.
If a generational crisis war occurs, then it will end in some kind of
explosive climax, usually a massive genocide, that will shock everyone
so much that the war really will end. This is what happened in World
War II, for example, after the fall of Berlin and the nuking of
Japanese cities.
But in an Awakening era war, even genocidal actions do not end the war
more than temporarily. This is obviously true in Syria, which is now
split into regions controlled, by Turkey, the Kurds, ISIS, and the
"moderate" rebels, leaving only "Alawite-istan," a small region in
western Syria, still controlled by al-Assad.
So if the observation is correct that the chaotic destruction of east
Aleppo is an act of desperation by Syria and Russia, then we may see
the Syria war end in a way that Russia does not like. Russia Today and VOA
Related Articles
- As ISIS loses territory, it turns increasingly to terrorism (28-Sep-2016)
- Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
- From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Russia,
John Kerry, Ash Carter, Maria Zakharova, Alawite-istan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
