05-19-2016, 09:08 AM
(05-18-2016, 09:45 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > JohnX, one problem with generational dynamics is that assumes the
> current policies remain in place through the onset of the crisis
> climax. Trump would not keep the current policies. Relations with
> both Russia and China would improve if trump becomes
> president.
You're completely missing the point of generational dynamics theory.
Politicians don't determine policies. Generations do. Even in a
dictatorship, politicians have no effect on major policy decisions,
except insofar as they follow the demands of their constituents.
Trump has said as much many times. Trump is appealing to a highly
nationalistic, racist, xenophobic audience, mostly Millennial. He's
said repeatedly some variation of the following: "My wife has told me
to act more presidential. If I did that, then there would be only ten
people in this audience instead of 2000. So I'm not going to become
presidential until I have to." The clear implication is that Trump is
like any other politician, totally contemptuous of his supporters by
just telling them what they want to hear.
Trump has no idea what's going on in the world, as was completely
apparent when he gave that foreign policy speech a couple of weeks
ago, punctuated by that ridiculous pronunciation of "Tanzania." He
has no core beliefs that I can discern, except that he believes that
he can always get his way by insulting and threatening people,
something that's always worked for him because of his billions, but
will backfire in the foreign policy area. So you're right, Trump will
change his policies constantly, since he has no idea what his policies
are.
Clinton knows what's going on in the world and knows how to pronounce
Tanzania, since she spent eight years in the White House with her
rapist husband. But she's obediently followed Obama's policies, which
have ended in one disaster after another. Obama has no clue what's
going on in the world, so she probably knows more, but she has no core
beliefs that I can discern except that the solution to all the world's
problems is for women to have free contraceptives. If she wins, then
she'll probably just let her husband make most of the decisions, which
is laughable give all the feminist crap we always have to listen to.
Like Trump, Clinton will change her policies all the time, since she
has no idea what her policies are.
Sanders is the looniest of all, with his Socialist revolution.
Sanders and his acolytes are too dumb to learn anything from watching
Venezuela collapse right before their eyes, or to learn any historical
lessons from the massive bloodbaths caused by Socialism in the Soviet
Union, Maoist China, Pol Pot's Cambodia, eastern Europe, and so forth.
Sanders does have core beliefs, the same core beliefs that Sean Penn,
Michael Moore, Oliver Stone and Jeremy Corbyn have: That's it's ok to
let tens of millions of people be executed, starved or killed in order
to create a Socialist paradise. Sanders won't change his policies
since he's a total loon -- but he has no chance of winning.
So now getting back to the main theoretical point, Trump himself may
or may not be nationalistic, racist and xenophobic, but he's making
nationalistic, racist and xenophobic speeches because that's what his
core audience want. He's no different from any other politician in
that he'll tell people what they want to hear if they'll vote for him
and give him money. But it's the people who decide the policies, not
the politicians.
So it's completely untrue that Generational Dynamics "assumes the
current policies remain in place through the onset of the crisis
climax." Generational Dynamics applies MIT's System Dynamics to the
flow of generations to determine trends that must occur, and therefore
can be predicted, and uses Chaos Theory to determine which policies
can change at any time, and so cannot be predicted.
It's never been true that Generational Dynamics assumes that no
policies will change. Rather, Generational Dynamics discerns between
policies that CAN'T change, versus policies that can.
