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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 6-Oct-16 World View -- Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria
  • Concerns about possible US-Russia military conflict continue to grow

****
**** Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria
****


[Image: g161005b.jpg]
Russian S-300 air defense missile system (AP)

Russia announced in April that it had met its objectives in Syria, and
its military was withdrawing. Then, as the army of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began collapsing again, Russia
changed its mind. Russia's increasing military buildup in Syria
indicates that it has no intention of withdrawing, and may even be
treating Syria as a part or a protectorate of the Russian federation.

Russia's military on Tuesday announced that a battery of the S-300 air
defense missile systems had been sent to Syria. This follows
installation of a long-range S-400 missile defense system, and an
array of other surface-to-air missiles. These have raised concerns
among analysts, to which Russia's Defense Ministry responded: "I
remind you that the S-300 is a purely defensive system and poses no
threat to anyone. It’s not clear why the placement of S-300 in Syria
has caused such a stir among our western colleagues."

No jihadist group has an air force, so the deployment of advanced air
defense missile systems must be directed at someone else. There are
several possibilities:
  • Russia is about to conduct some new military action in Syria,
    and does not wish to risk an American military response.
  • Syria is becoming essentially a part of the Russian federation,
    and Russia is turning it into a permanent military base.
  • Russia is preparing for war with its historic enemy,
    Turkey.

Military Times and AFP

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****
**** Concerns about possible US-Russia military conflict continue to grow
****


Many analysts are concerned that Russia's military buildup in Syria
means that Russia and the United States are headed for a military
conflict when the next American administration takes office in
January. I wrote about these concerns
several days ago.

However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts
that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries.

Europe's last three generational crisis war all involved an invasion
of Russia, but they were crisis wars for Europe, but non-crisis wars
for Russia:
  • The War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14) was a generational
    crisis war for Europe and for Sweden in the Great Northern War with
    Russia (1700-20), but it was a non-crisis war for Russia.
  • The Napoleonic Wars (1800-1814) were a crisis war for France,
    which invaded Russia, but it was a non-crisis war for Russia.
  • World War II (1939-45) was a generational crisis war for Europe,
    and for Germany, which invaded Russia, but it was a non-crisis war for
    Russia.

These were brutal wars for Russia, but a component of the war was that
invading armies were defeated by the brutal Russian winter.

Russia's generational crisis wars were not fought with Europe. They
were either internal rebellions, or they were fought with Turks and
Mongols. Of particular importance were the Tatars, a tribe of Mongols
that, under the leadership of Genghis Kahn, probably the greatest
conqueror in the history of the world, they had defeated China in
1215, and then turned westward and conquered much of southern Russia
by 1227. The Tatars in the Crimean Peninsula had intermingled with
the central Asian Turks, and spoke a Turkic language. By the 1400s,
they adopted Islam as their religion. It was in 1571 that the Crimean
Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow, then ruled by Ivan the Terrible.

Russia under Catherine the Great fought a generational crisis war with
the Ottoman Empire from 1762-83. Russia fought the Ottomans again
under Tsar Nicholas I in the Crimean War in 1853-55. World War I was
a generational crisis war for both Russia and Turkey, and it saw the
destruction of both Tsarist Russia (Bolshevik Revolution) and Ottoman
Turkey.

So Russia's great historical generational crisis wars have been not
with the West, but with the Ottoman Turks, the Mongols, and the
Crimean Tatars. And that's the way it's going to be in the next war
as well.

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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, S-300, S-400,
Clash of Civilizations, Turkey, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
War of the Spanish Succession, Sweden, Great Northern War,
Napoleonic Wars, France, World War II, Germany,
Crimea, Tatars, Mongols, Turks, Genghis Khan, Catherine the Great,
Ivan the Terrible, Ottoman Empire, World War I, Bolshevik Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
6-Oct-16 World View -- Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria - by John J. Xenakis - 10-05-2016, 09:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
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