10-06-2016, 11:39 AM
I find it hard to believe that WWII would not have caused a Generational Dynamics "reset" in Russia, entraining them into the west's cycle.
I also question the idea that crisis wars tend to be fought with the same enemies each time. The U.S. crisis wars were each fought with a different set of enemies, all disjoint. Enemies sometimes seem to carry over between adjacent crisis wars and noncrisis wars - the American Revolution and the War of 1812, WWI and WWII - but they don't seem to carry over between crisis wars. If anything, that would suggest that the U.S. and Russia are more likely to be on opposite sides, since they were on opposite sides in the Cold War.
I don't discount that there might be a Russia vs. Turkey confrontation coming up, but I think that would be more likely to put the U.S. on the side of Turkey than Russia.
I also question the idea that crisis wars tend to be fought with the same enemies each time. The U.S. crisis wars were each fought with a different set of enemies, all disjoint. Enemies sometimes seem to carry over between adjacent crisis wars and noncrisis wars - the American Revolution and the War of 1812, WWI and WWII - but they don't seem to carry over between crisis wars. If anything, that would suggest that the U.S. and Russia are more likely to be on opposite sides, since they were on opposite sides in the Cold War.
I don't discount that there might be a Russia vs. Turkey confrontation coming up, but I think that would be more likely to put the U.S. on the side of Turkey than Russia.
