Regeneracy=TARP, Climax=Trump, Resolution=Midterms?

[David Horn]

(11-04-2018, 11:26 PM)Ritterlich Wrote: Hi, I propose following theory for this current Fourth Turning we're in:

Regeneracy began almost immediately with TARP and stimulus bills. There were a number of programs from the FED and federal government to 1. arrest the credit crisis and 2. jump-start the faltering economy. We now know this was a lot faster and more successful than post 1929. Instead of a 3 year free-fall before FDR did "something" in the Great Depression, we arrested the fall in asset prices and GDP within about a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs 5 years after the peak compared to 25 years before. UE fell to new lows within 8 years. Thus, economy repaired quickly.

However, politically the divisions and value wars continued unabated. Progressives vs. conservatives and also a new and growing group of people who are the losers from the Great De-industrialization in America. The latter forming a new coalition with the conservatives, creating the New Deal Coalition of our current Fourth Turning. We may call it the New Deplorables Coalition. They have been uniting behind President Trump. He is the Grey Champion leading us through the Fourth Turning. 

It seems to me that the upcoming Midterm elections actually are the climactic battle between the two value regimes in America. After this we have a quick path to the resolution (a large variety of domestic changes and international trade pacts, re-establishing the industrial core of our economy).

I seriously doubt the Trump-as-GC theory, because Trump has no strategy beyond dominating the next news cycle.  It's true.  Politicians tend to be myopic, but he's simply ridiculous.  And the possibility that he wins in 2020 won't change my thinking in the least.  There cannot be a resolution when the optimum state is chaos, and that's pretty much Trump's entire toolkit.

I find it much more likely that he will keep things in turmoil until he leaves office, possibly in 2024, we will just stop the in-fighting out of ennui.  It's a poor choice, but exhaustion may be the final winner. I'm less concerned about the UK, because the failure there was a badly played gambit by Cameron that almost everyone knows was stupid. Brexit may happen, but it will slowly be overcome by common sense and common needs.