11-10-2018, 11:18 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2018, 11:22 AM by Eric the Green.)
(11-04-2018, 11:26 PM)Ritterlich Wrote: Hi, I propose following theory for this current Fourth Turning we're in:
Regeneracy began almost immediately with TARP and stimulus bills. There were a number of programs from the FED and federal government to 1. arrest the credit crisis and 2. jump-start the faltering economy. We now know this was a lot faster and more successful than post 1929. Instead of a 3 year free-fall before FDR did "something" in the Great Depression, we arrested the fall in asset prices and GDP within about a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs 5 years after the peak compared to 25 years before. UE fell to new lows within 8 years. Thus, economy repaired quickly.
However, politically the divisions and value wars continued unabated. Progressives vs. conservatives and also a new and growing group of people who are the losers from the Great De-industrialization in America. The latter forming a new coalition with the conservatives, creating the New Deal Coalition of our current Fourth Turning. We may call it the New Deplorables Coalition. They have been uniting behind President Trump. He is the Grey Champion leading us through the Fourth Turning.
It seems to me that the upcoming Midterm elections actually are the climactic battle between the two value regimes in America. After this we have a quick path to the resolution (a large variety of domestic changes and international trade pacts, re-establishing the industrial core of our economy).
Good try. But a common misinterpretation around T4T commentary is to think this 4T will end sooner than it will. Mr. Howe has spelled out the end year as 2029, and it agrees with what I predicted according to other cycles.
The regeneracy has begun, however, and it is what Obama described in his Oct.7 chicago school speech as the political awakening going on all across the country. In our time though, being a return of cold (and maybe later, hot) civil war, is that the sleepening forces were aroused too, so stalemate continues. TARP was the equivalent of the New Deal, along with Obama's stimulus package and Wall Street reforms (Dodd-Frank). It was not a regeneracy, but the early response to the onset of crisis. But your observations are correct about the quicker economic repair. But, since the stimulus was stopped in 2011 by the right-wing tea party reaction, recovery continued and continues to be anemic.
Just because losers from the de-industrialization of America have been deceived, in many cases, to support those who have caused it (the Trumpist/Bush/Reagan Republicans) does not at all mean that their deception and misalignment is a new deal coalition; Trump is the opposite of that. He is the Democrats on the eve of the civil war, resisting change in every way. Deplorables cannot lead us into progress; only regression, as they are doing.
NO, the next New Deal was never due until the 2020s. That's what was in the stars and the cycles, and the 4T has at least a decade more to run. The climax won't even happen until 2025-27 (2027 to be exact, but 2025 is a key year). I hope America has it within itself to move forward and throw off the shackles of the Deplorable regression. Time will tell, but that's the timing. The early 2020s could see considerable reform.
The reactive Trumpist deplorables won't go away, however, which is why the 4T will last until they are humbled and shackled enough so that a 1T can begin. If the Deplorables win, however, and their "new deal" is established, look for a steady quick decline to banana republic status for the USA, and world leadership devolving to others. And there will be no awakening ever again for the USA, in that case. We are done.
How anyone can see any hope for change and progress in Trump and his Deplorables, is beyond me. Polls and midterm election returns show that, at least in the 3 midwest de-industrialized states that gave Trump the White House, Trump's lies and fear-mongering are less appealing, and those hurt by de-industrialization are returning to the only party that can help them; the party that represents them; the Democrats. Sherrod Brown is their leading spokesman. Folks in Missouri and Indiana can still be fooled, but they were already red states and not the heart of the Rust Belt.